Liverpool vs Real Madrid Prediction

Liverpool vs Real Madrid stats: key insights

• Opta Supercomputer favors Liverpool to maintain their perfect record in the Champions League, beating Real Madrid in 46.8%.
• Kylian Mbappe has scored 49 goals in 77 Champions League games. He could become the fourth fastest player to reach 50 goals in this FA Cup, behind Ruud van Nistelrooy (62 appearances), Lionel Messi (66) and Robert Lewandowski (77).
• Liverpool could win their first five games of a major European season for the second time. They did so before in the 2021-22 season, losing to Real Madrid in the Champions League final.

The introduction of the 36-team league phase of the Champions League was designed to give fans more access to the showdown between Europe's best teams, and Wednesday's clash at Anfield certainly fits the bill.

Liverpool - the only team to win all four of its matches in the 2024-25 campaign - will face defending champions Real Madrid in what could be the most important match of the Champions League season so far.

Arne Slaughter's reign at Anfield couldn't have gone any better, moving them eight points clear at the top of the Premier League after Sunday's 3-2 comeback win over Southampton.Opta supercomputerConsider them favorites to win the title. They also have the only perfect record in four Champions League matches, beating Milan, Bologna, RB Leipzig and Leverkusen.

Going into Matchday 5, Liverpool were the Opta Supercomputer favorites to win the Champions League, winning the simulation at 16%.

Only once have Liverpool enjoyed a better 100% start to a major European tournament, winning their first seven Champions League matches in the 2021-22 season when they lost to Real Madrid as runners-up.

The Reds may once again rely on Mohamed Salah, who scored twice against Southampton on Sunday and now contributes 66.71 TP3T of their Premier League goals this season (10 goals, 6 assists). The Egyptian has also dished out at least one assist in each of his last three Champions League games.

While Salah's tendency to move from the right towards the infield is well known, he has also excelled at creating chances from the wing this season. Liverpool have scored more goals from crosses (5 out of 10) than any other team in the Champions League this season, and their last three goals have all been assisted by Salah.

Slotter has preached the importance of control since taking over from Jürgen Klopp, but Liverpool's pressing remains ferocious and could be the key to another big European night at Anfield. Ryan Gravenberger has played a key role in this regard, regaining possession more times than any other midfielder in the Champions League this season (30 times), as well as having the highest pass success rate of any Liverpool player (93%).

They beat Bundesliga champions Leverkusen 4-0 on MD 4, but Sloter's side may be preparing for their toughest test yet when 15-time European champions Real Madrid come to the city.

Carlo Ancelotti's side warmed up for their trip to Merseyside with a 3-0 La Liga win over Leganes on Sunday, but did suffer a major blow when Vinicius Junior picked up a hamstring injury that will keep him out of Wednesday's game. In all competitions this season, Vinicius has been involved in at least seven more goals than any other Real Madrid player (12 goals, six assists), while also creating a team-high 43 chances.

However, Los Blancos have coped well without Vinicius in the past. Since the start of last season, they have won 41 of 57 games (71.9%) with the Brazilian playing, but 75% in his absence (12 of 16). Real Madrid also scored slightly more goals per game without the winger (2.4 to 2.3).

While Real Madrid are always expected to mount a challenge at the front of Europe, they are under pressure to get a result on Wednesday, having picked up just six points from their four games before traveling to Anfield to sit 18th in the table.

They lost 3-1 to Milan at the Santiago Bernabeu in MD 4 and have lost two of their last three Champions League matches (W1), as many as their previous 28 (W20 D6).

Mbappe could play a key role if they are to stop that streak. The Frenchman has scored 49 goals in 77 Champions League games and has the chance to become the fourth-fastest player to score 50 goals in the Champions League behind Ruud van Nistelrooy (62 appearances), Lionel Messi (66) and Robert Lewandowski (77).

Liverpool vs Real Madrid Head-to-Head

Real Madrid are the team Liverpool have lost to the most times in Europe, having been beaten by Los Blancos seven times, including heartbreaking Champions League final defeats in 2018 and 2022.

The last time these two teams met was in the Round of 16 in the 2022-23 season, when Real Madrid beat Liverpool 5-2 at Anfield before sealing qualification with a 1-0 win at home.

That away win made Real Madrid the first team in Champions League history to come back from two goals down to win by three goals, and the first away team to score five goals in a European game at Anfield.

Liverpool vs Real Madrid Prediction

Despite Real Madrid's good record against Liverpool, Slaughter's Reds are the favorites for this match.

In 10,000 match simulations conducted by the Opta supercomputer, Liverpool won with a probability of 46.8% and were beaten with a probability of 28.9%, with 24.3% of the scenarios seeing points shared.

Prior to MD 4, the supercomputer had Liverpool with a 49.8% chance of finishing first, with second favorites Inter Milan second with a 14% chance. Real Madrid top the predictions by just 0.1%, with 16th and 17th (both 6.2%) being their most common final rankings.

That would leave them needing a bye to advance to the Round of 16, and they face a battle for seeding. Their hopes of skipping the play-in round with a top-eight finish are rated at 15.71 TP3T.