Tottenham vs Man Utd predictions: can Man Utd avenge UEFA Cup loss?

Tottenham vs Man Utd: Key Stats

• Opta supercomputerTottenham Hotspur have been declared the favorites to win the title, with the London club winning 47.5% in the pre-match simulation.
• Manchester United are winless in their last seven matches against Tottenham Hotspur.
• Bruno Fernandez is looking for his third consecutive assist in his first road appearance since November 2020

Tottenham Hotspur and Manchester United have almost identical Premier League records this season. They have both won 5 and lost 3 of their 10 games, while scoring 17 goals. As Tottenham have conceded half as many goals as Spurs (8 vs 16) will this have an impact in this match?

If the game is played at Old Trafford, it could be. Tottenham Hotspur are at the top of the Premier League table, starting the weekend away from home, while at the same time are in 17th place on the corresponding home table.

Their poor form in North London will also continue beyond the 2025-26 season. No team has lost more Premier League home games in 2025 than Tottenham Hotspur (nine). Only 1994 and 2003 (10 each) have seen Spurs reach double-digit home losses in their one-year league history.

Whilst most of the game currently hinges on Angie Postecoglou, Thomas Frank has a poor record in front of his own fans. During his time at Brentford and Tottenham Hotspur, the Dane has suffered nine defeats in his last 16 home Premier League matches The league, winning just three. Prior to this run, his Brentford side had won seven of their previous eight home games, so he has overseen quite a fall.

Frank wants him and Tottenham to finally hit rock bottom at the weekend when it comes to poor performances at home. Spurs In their 0.1-1 loss to Chelsea, xG was just 0, Chelsea's lowest of any team in the Premier League so far this season. They are averaging just 9.7 shots per game in 2025-26, their lowest recorded Premier League average since the 1997-98 season.

A midweek win over FC Copenhagen in UEFA has gone a long way The Champions League should boost confidence in the Tottenham camp, but their cause in this competition hasn't been helped by two factors. Firstly, they have the longest injury list in the Premier League at the time of writing, with 10 players out. Mohamed Kudus may be back, but Lukas Bergwal, Yves Bissouma, Dominic Solanke, Dejan Kulusevski and James Maddison are among the potential starters who won't be involved.

Another problem for Tottenham is the power of the United offense. Only Liverpool (156) have had more shots on goal in the Premier League in more seasons than United (153), and no team has had more shots on goal than them (54).

66.71 TP3T of their shots came from inside the box (102/153), their highest percentage since the 2012-13 season (66.81 TP3T), which was their last title-winning season. With eight teams averaging a higher non-penalty xG per shot, there's still room for improvement, but this is a step in the right direction for Ruben Amorim's men.

His team will be close to full strength here too, with Lisandro Martinez the only player absent for United. II Players who should be expected for this game are Brian Mbemo and Bruno Fernandez.

Only against Southampton and Brighton (5 times) has Mbewumo scored Premier League goals more than he did against Tottenham Hotspur, with three of His four games came against them at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium. As For Fernandez, who has dished out 53 Premier League assists since his debut February 2020, only Mohamed Salah (64) and Kevin De Bruyne (58) have more. He's assisted in his last two away games and is looking to do so for the first time in three consecutive away appearances Since November 2020 Maybe Mbewumo can help him achieve that?

Manchester United are unbeaten in their last four Premier League games (W3 D1) and they are tied for the best performance under Amorim. They last had a long unbeaten January/February 2024 (five games), which was also the last time they scored two or more goals in five games consecutively. But Tottenham Hotspur completed the Premier League double They had a good record in this regard last season, and recently went head-to-head. So it's hard to know which way this game is going to go.

Tottenham Hotspur vs Man Utd Head-to-Head

"Lads, this is Tottenham."

Sir Alex Ferguson's famous line to his players, in which he once downplayed the threat of Tottenham Hotspur, no longer applies. United have not won a single game in their last seven meetings with Tottenham, losing five, including each of the last four - the last team to win five in a row against the Red Devils was Liverpool between 2000 and 2002.

Tottenham Hotspur beat Manchester United four times last season alone, most of them especially in the Europa League final. They won 1-0 at home in the Premier League, also beating Spurs 4-3 at the Carabao Cup stadium.

Tottenham Hotspur vs Manchester United Predictions

The home team is the favorite to win, but not yet reached More likely.

Selector Supercomputer10,000 simulations were run for the match, in which Tottenham Hotspur won at 47.5%. The other two potential outcomes had almost equal probabilities.

A United win (26.4%) is slightly higher than a draw (26.2%), albeit by a small margin. The visitors will need to overcome their recent history of supercomputers against Tottenham Hotspur if they are to get three points here.