Inter Milan vs Barcelona Predictions

Inter Milan vs Barcelona Stats: Key Insights

• Opta supercomputerBarcelona are the favorites to reach the final, with a 56% chance of advancing.
• Inter Milan hope to reach the final of the Champions League for the third time (also in 2010 and 2023); it will be the sixth final for Barcelona (1994, 2006, 2009, 2011, 2015).
• Barcelona have won just one of their six Champions League away games against Inter Milan. Overall, they have won five of their 24 matches in Italy (21%), their lowest success rate in the Champions League.

If you want to get an idea of how seriously Inter Milan and Barcelona take the UEFA Champions League, just look at the players who watched the game from the bench during their respective domestic matches over the weekend.

Despite both teams being in the thick of the title race in their respective national leagues, only three of the 22 players who started last week's first leg were back in action at the weekend - Barcelona's Pedri and Gerard Martin, and Inter Milan's Jan Bisek.

While Inter Milan closed the gap on Serie A leaders Napoli by three points with a 1-0 home win over Verona, Barcelona were forced to rely on Lamine Yamal, Frankie de Jong and Rafinha to overturn a first-half deficit away to already-relegated Real Valladolid.

The first leg which ended 3-3 in Spain last Wednesday can already be safely regarded as a modern classic. Yamal's contribution in particular will always be remembered, and given that he is still two months away from officially coming of age, it remains surprising that he continues to be one of soccer's greats.

Yamal has scored five goals in the Champions League this season, and only three players in the history of the competition have scored more goals in a single season as teenagers - Erlin Harland, Kylian Mbappe and Raul - all of whom have occupied more center forward positions.

On the other side is Rafinha, who could be at the center of the Ballon d'Or debate even if Barcelona don't lift the Champions League later this month. The Brazilian is closing in on the single-season Champions League scoring record, with his 12 goals and eight assists (20) second only to Cristiano Ronaldo's 17 goals and four assists (21) for Real Madrid in the 2013-14 season.

Both Yamal and Rafinha will need to be at their best if they are to beat Simone Inzaghi's Inter, who remain one of the strongest teams in Europe despite some disappointing results at the end of April.

Inter Milan are currently unbeaten in 15 Champions League home matches, their longest unbeaten run on European soil since the 1980s, while they have won nine of their last 11 European matches in the semi-finals at the San Siro.

However, it is becoming increasingly likely that the reigning Italian champions will play the second leg without their captain and top scorer Lautaro Martinez, who was substituted at halftime last week with a muscle injury.

But Inter scored three goals against Barcelona, while Martinez made no direct contribution in the first leg and Denzel Dumfries scored twice after Marcus Thuram had given them the lead in the first minute. If either player scores on Tuesday, they will become the first Inter Milan player to score in both legs of a Europa League semifinal since Giacinto Facchetti in the 1966-67 season.

Barcelona have been without their top scorer of late, with Robert Lewandowski missing the last four games with a hamstring injury. The Pole is said to be expected to return on Tuesday, but he is not necessarily guaranteed a place in the starting lineup given the form of Ferran Torres, who received a header from Rafinha when he scored in the first leg.

Torres is in the best form of his Barcelona career and has held down the fort admirably in Lewandowski's absence. The Spaniard has scored 19 goals in all competitions this season, despite starting just 17 games and averaging a goal every 92 minutes.

While Inter Milan recently reached the Champions League final in 2023, readers will undoubtedly be surprised to learn that Barcelona have not competed in Europe's premier tournament extravaganza since beating Juventus in the 2014-15 season.

Barcelona have been the entertainers of the season, and while their smooth game under Hansie Frick can make them miss missed chances, it has made them a mesmerizing attacking force. They have scored 40 goals in the Champions League this season, which is now five goals short of the competition record they set in the 1999-2000 season.

Inter Milan vs Barcelona head-to-head

This will be the 18th major European meeting between Inter Milan and Barcelona, with only Bayern Munich v Real Madrid (28), Juventus v Real Madrid (21) and Inter Milan v Real Madrid (19) playing more frequently. The last two matches between the two teams ended 3-3, in the UEFA Champions League in October 2022 and in the first round last week.

Barcelona have won just one of their six Champions League away games against Inter Milan and that was a 2-1 victory in December 2019. Overall, Barcelona have won just five of their 24 away matches in Italy (21%), their lowest winning percentage of any foreign country in the competition.

Inter Milan vs Barcelona Predictions

Opta supercomputerIndifferent to Inter Milan's strong home record in Europe, consider Barcelona to have the best chance of winning at San Siro on Tuesday (42.7%). Inter Milan have won the game in 33% simulations, while a draw is 24.3% likely.

In any case, Barcelona's chances of advancing to the final are 561 TP3T and Inter's are 441 TP3T.