Paris Saint-Germain vs Arsenal Predictions

Paris Saint-Germain vs Arsenal stats: key insights

• Paris Saint-Germain in Opta supercomputer's pre-game simulation resulted in a 45.41 TP3T victory.
• Ousmane Dembele's eight Champions League goals this season can only be surpassed by Zlatan Ibrahimovic's single season for Paris Saint-Germain (10 in 2013-14).
• For the first time in their history, Arsenal can win five consecutive away matches in a major European competition.

Paris Saint-Germain will look to defend a slim 1-0 lead when they visit the Parc des Princes on Wednesday for the second leg of their Champions League semi-final.

Ousmane Dembele scored just four minutes into the opening half at the Emirates last Tuesday, before Mikel Merino's second-half equalizer was ruled offside.

Dembele's goal was his eighth Champions League goal of the season, which only Zlatan Ibrahimovic has managed to score in a single season for Paris Saint-Germain (10 in 2013-14), and brought Luis Enrique's side home by a narrow margin. The Frenchman has also been cleared for Wednesday's game, having suffered a hamstring strain in the London game.

The hosts will be full of confidence given that they have won three of their last four Champions League home games, scoring 14 goals in those three victories. However, they have lost twice at the Parc des Princes this season, to Liverpool and Atletico Madrid, and have only lost three at home in the same 2020-21 season.

Joao Neves has littered Arsenal's midfield at the Emirates, finishing the season with 51 tackles, the most by a midfielder in a single season since Arturo Vidal (52) in 2014-15.

Neves also applied 756 high pressures on opponents during the 2024-25 season, more than 100 more than any other player, and could once again join Vitinia and Fabian Ruiz in the second round.

However, it's not just the physical side of this Paris Saint-Germain side that is impressive. They have completed 150 passes through the defense in the Champions League this season, second only to Bayern Munich (156.) Talisman Dembélé has accounted for 25 of those, tied for the most of any player this season.

Arsenal will demand more from their own midfield maestro on Wednesday. Declan Rice completed the most breakaway passes (6) in the attacking third while tying for the most passes (50) between the two teams in Round One.

The England midfielder led all Arsenal players in the 2024-25 season with his breakaway passes leading to shots (7) and goals (3), and Mikel Arteta will be desperate for Rice to play a role in the French capital.

Arteta could also come into this game with some confidence, considering Arsenal have won their last four Champions League away games. However, they have never won five consecutive away games in all European competitions before.

History has also been a bit unfavorable for this Premier League team, as only two teams have reached the Champions League final after losing the first leg of their semifinal match at home. Ajax beat Panathinaikos in the 1995-96 season and Arsenal's arch-rivals Tottenham Hotspur achieved the same result against Ajax in the 2018-19 season.

However, Arsenal have never advanced after losing the first leg of a European competition at home. In stark contrast, Paris Saint-Germain have only been eliminated once when winning the first leg of a two-legged competition, and that was to Manchester United in the 2018-19 season.

Wednesday is also a key moment for both sides, who are both aiming to reach a second Champions League final. Paris Saint-Germain did so before losing to Bayern in the 2019-20 season, while Arsenal lost to Barcelona in the 2005-06 season.

With that game in mind, Luis Enrique rested all of his first-choice players in Saturday's 1-2 loss to Strasbourg. Arteta did not follow suit, aArsenal lost to Bournemouth by the same scoreline, despite the fact that they fielded almost their entire starting lineup.

Paris Saint-Germain vs Arsenal Head-to-Head

Arsenal have lost their last two matches against French sides in all competitions, against Rennes in 2019 and Lens in 2023, and they are unbeaten in their first 13 such away matches (W8 D5).

However, there will still be some home nerves. Paris Saint-Germain's first-leg win was their first in six attempts against Arsenal (D3 L2).

Arteta may feel his side deserve at least a draw in their opening game as Arsenal are expected to score at 1.63 while Paris Saint-Germain are expected to score at 1.16, despite Donnarumma's form for Luis Enrique's visitors.

These omens don't bode well for Arsenal's chances of turning the gap around; the Gunners have gone 1-1 in their two previous away games against Paris Saint-Germain (March 1994 and September 2016), which was certainly enough to give the hosts a win on aggregate.

Paris Saint Germain vs Arsenal Prediction

The Opta supercomputer favors the home side to win as PSG has been victorious for 90 minutes, winning 45.4% out of 10,000 pre-match simulations.

It's hard to expect Luis Enrique to be ready for a draw, even though this result is rated at 24.61 TP3T, slightly lower than the likelihood of an Arsenal win at 30.01 TP3T.

Paris Saint-Germain's first-leg win has seen them leapfrog as favorites in Opta's Championship predictions, with their chances of winning the title valued at 41.6%.Arsenal's hopes have fallen to 11.2% from 31.3% prior to kick-off last Tuesday.