Who will win La Liga in the 2024-25 season?Opta stats, insights and predictions

This looks to be a troika match at the top of La Liga, with Real Madrid, Barcelona and Atletico Madrid battling it out for the 2024-25 season title. How do the two sides stack up and who is Opta supercomputerof successful supporters? We analyze key statistics.

March 17

It was a seismic and potentially decisive weekend in the Liga MX title race as two of the top three battled it out at the Metropolitano.

For a while it looked like the title race was about to open up again. Atletico Madrid took a 1-0 lead over Barcelona on the stroke of half-time thanks to a Julián Álvarez goal on a quick counter-attack, and they went 2-0 up in similar circumstances with 20 minutes left in the game, with Alejandro Solot finishing on that occasion.

But Barcelona fought back admirably.

Robert Lewandowski's clever shot from the edge of the box got them back into the game quickly before Ferran Torres' header equalized with 78 minutes to go.

Injury time Lamine Yamal's shot was refracted to help Barcelona take the lead, before Torres' second goal ended Atletico - and on the night, it was likely to be a title fight as well.

A win would have seen Atletico overtake Barcelona. Instead, they are four points behind with a game in hand, with Hansie Fricker's side top of the table on 60 points, ahead of Real Madrid - who have also played a game more - by virtue of their superior head-to-head record.

It's been a glorious few weeks for the Blaugrana. In the last update of the title race on February 14, Barcelona became champions with only 26.9% in 10,000 simulations on the Opta supercomputer, slightly ahead of Atletico Madrid (20.5%), but far behind Madrid (52%).

However, things are completely different now.

In the latest 10,000 simulations conducted on Monday, Barcelona led all the way for 68.5% - that's 40 percentage points better than Real Madrid (28.5%), while Atletico Madrid (2.9%) was almost completely out of the game in the eyes of the supercomputer.

Other results have had a major impact, such as Real Madrid's blowout loss to Real Betis in early March, but Barcelona have taken it in stride; Sunday's victory was their seventh in a row in La Liga.

Despite becoming erratic to an extent, Atletico do have a slight advantage of being easier to grind out.

In fact, the average strength of Atletico Madrid's opponents over the last 10 matchdays of the season was the weakest of all 20 La Liga clubs. This was calculated using the Opta Strength Ranking, which rates teams with scores ranging from 0 (the lowest ranked team) to 100 (the highest ranked team).

Between here and the end of the season, Atletico's opponents have an average rating of 84.7; for Real Madrid that figure rises to 87.3. Barcelona are priced at 87.0, but it's also worth noting that the leaders have another game in hand against Osasuna.

There's also the small matter of the second La Liga game of the season taking place on May 10, which could work in Atletico's favor if they manage to get themselves back on track in the meantime.

So, there are still a lot of games to be played, but right now it's Barcelona that's going to lose.

14 February

With a little over a third of the La Liga season remaining, the title race for the 2024-25 season is shaping up to be a memorable one. Only two points separate league leaders Real Madrid from third-place Barcelona, with Atletico Madrid sandwiched in between.

It was the closest title race at this stage of the Spanish top flight since the 2013-14 season, when the three clubs were tied at the top of the table with 57 points after 23 games. Atlético Madrid were crowned champions that season, winning the title with a three-point lead over Madrid and Barcelona.

With another three-way title race underway, we analyze the strengths and weaknesses of all three contenders and evaluate the latest La Liga predictions via the Opta supercomputer.

Real Madrid soccer team

Real Madrid have already won a record number of La Liga titles (36) and they hope to add another one in the 2024-25 season. So far, so good, as Carlo Ancelotti's men sit on top of the table with 50 points after 23 matchdays.

However, with a close finish, a loss could see them drop to third place and be overtaken by city rivals Atletico Madrid and arch-rivals Barcelona. This comes after two consecutive games without a win, firstly a shock 1-0 loss to Espanyol and secondly a home draw with Atletico last weekend.

An away win against Osasuna this weekend would mean that for the first time since November 2020, they would have less than three points from three games in La Liga. That would constitute a mini-crisis.

Carlo Ancelotti's side have had problems in defense with long-term injuries to Dani Carvajal and Eder Militão, plus recent issues with David Alaba, Antonio Rüdiger and Lucas Vázquez, although Ancelotti said on Friday that all three players should return next week.

Last season, Real Madrid won the title by scoring the most goals and conceding the fewest - this time they don't look like the top. None of the last seven Spanish champions have failed to surpass at least one of these metrics in a title-winning season, but Real Madrid were the last team to do so in 2016-17 (second-best offense, fourth-best defense).

They have struggled to replace Toni Kroos in midfield after he retired at the end of last season. Dani Ceballos is starting to take more control of the game, but Aurelien Chouameni struggled to fill the German's shoes earlier this season.

On a positive note, Kylian Mbappe has started to get his feet wet in Spain after a slow start. The French striker failed to score in his first three La Liga games, but has been involved in 18 goals (16 goals, 2 assists) in his last 18 matches.

However, finding a way to fit Mbappe's game seems to have led to a decline in Jude Bellingham's offensive output. His minutes-per-goal rate in La Liga has almost halved compared to last season (228 in 2024-25 compared to 122 in 2023-24), while Vinicius Junior has struggled to make much of an impact in games at times.

Barcelona

Barcelona got off to a hot start under Hansi Flick. They won 11 of their first 12 La Liga matches in the 2024-25 season and were nine points clear at the top of the table, despite having played a game more than rivals Real Madrid at the time.

One of those victories was a stunning display of dominance at the Bernabeu as they beat their opponents 4-0 at El Clásico, ending Real Madrid's 42-game unbeaten run in the league and ensuring they did not equal Barcelona's record for the 2018 campaign.

Despite winning their last three games - against bottom-half sides Valencia, Sevilla and Alaves - a slump in form over eight games between mid-November and mid-January meant they finished below Madrid and Atletico in the table. Atletico. Those eight games left them with a total of just six points (W1, D3, L4), and they now have fewer total points after 23 games this season (48) than they did last season (50) and the 2022-23 season (59).

Barcelona, who finished 10 points behind Real Madrid last season, are mostly confident that their young players will succeed this season. Only Valencia (24 years and 278 days) have an average starting lineup younger than theirs (24 years and 323 days) in La Liga this season, although 36-year-old Robert Lewandowski leads their front line.

The Polish striker has been in fine form so far in the 2024-25 season, topping the La Liga scoring charts with 19 goals in 22 matches, while he is supported by the 13-goal Rafinha and the brilliant youngster Lamine Yamal, who is the only player in the competition to have reached double digits in assists (10).

They are the league's top scorers with 64 goals, the most by a team at this stage of a season since Real Madrid scored 66 goals in 23 games in 2015-16.

Barcelona still have to play their two title rivals this season, while the two Real Madrid teams have already met twice (both ended 1-1). This arguably means that the title is still in Barcelona's hands, and the Furyk have certainly had their way with Real Madrid so far this season. In addition to their 4-0 league victory, Barcelona also won 5-2 in the Spanish Super Cup earlier this year, despite goalkeeper Wojciech Szczesny being sent off with 34 minutes left in the game.

Atletico Madrid (soccer team)

Atletico Madrid are a point behind rivals Real Madrid at the top of the table after a 1-1 draw with them on Matchday 23. Their 49 points are the most they have gained at this stage of the league season since they last won the title in 2020-21 (55), but this team is the most experienced of the title contenders.

Only Rayo Vallecano (29 years, 75 days) and Mallorca (28 years, 328 days) have older average starting lineups than Atletico Madrid (28 years, 246 days) this season. Their teams are on average a year and a half older than Real Madrid (27 years, 52 days) and almost four years older than Barcelona (24 years, 323 days).

Atletico's 2-0 win over Mallorca on February 1 saw manager Diego Simeone surpass 500 La Liga matches in charge of the club, becoming the ninth manager in history to achieve the feat. During his tenure at the club, where they have been competing with Barcelona and Real Madrid, Atletico have amassed the third most points (1,031) - 240 more than the second most (Sevilla, 791).

Under Simeone's stewardship, Atletico have become the most defensively sound team in the Spanish top flight. No team has conceded fewer goals per game on average than they have (0.77), while they have kept a clean sheet in nearly half of his games in charge (48%), which is again the highest number of goals scored in the competition.

It's no surprise, then, that they've also been the most impressive defensive team in La Liga this season. Atletico have conceded the fewest goals (15), kept a tie for the most shutouts (11, tied with Real Sociedad), and allowed the lowest quality of shots on goal to their opponents (20.3 expected goals against).

Simeone has kept his squad compact this season, using just 24 players in La Liga so far - only Osasuna and Rayo Vallecano (23) have used fewer. However, he has made the fourth-most changes to his starting lineup (76) in 23 matches to ensure his players remain dynamic. Finishing in the top eight at the Champions League stage also helped them avoid playing two more games in Europe - unlike Real Madrid.

Undoubtedly their toughest remaining game of the 2024-25 season is Barcelona's visit to the Metropolitano Stadium in March on the last matchday before International Day. But this is Atletico's fortress. They are the only home team in La Liga to remain undefeated this season and have earned the most points in home matches to date (30).

Opta Supercomputer Forecast

Opta supercomputerReal Madrid have been shown to win La Liga in more than half of current season predictions. In a 10,000 season simulation conducted today, Madrid had a 52.0% probability of winning La Liga.After all, they are the top ...... well... That's Real Madrid; they always seem to find a way to win.

However, this is definitely a three-horse race for the 2024-25 season title. Barcelona wins in a simulation of 26.91 TP3T, while Atletico Madrid has a probability of winning of 20.81 TP3T.

The title is a strong possibility elsewhere, but this only happened in 29 out of 10,000 simulations. Athletic Club was the victor in 28 of them and Villarreal won only once.

The last time a team other than Barcelona, Real Madrid or Atletico Madrid won La Liga was in the 2003-04 season, when Valencia were crowned champions. Athletic Club haven't won La Liga since the 1983-84 season, and Villarreal have never won the title - they came closest in the 2012-13 season, when they finished runners-up. It's likely to stay that way.