2024-25 La Liga Season Predictions : Opta Predictions

La Liga 2024-25 Season Predictions: Quick Hits

Title favorite: Real Madrid defends its title.
The top four favorites:Real Madrid, Barcelona, Atletico Madrid and Girona.
Relegation favorites:Newly promoted Espanyol, Real Valladolid and Leganes.

It has been a very successful summer of soccer for Spain.

They won big at Euro 2024, becoming the first European nation to win seven matches at a major international tournament and the second overall winner after Brazil at the 2002 World Cup. Then La Roja's youngsters showed that the future is also quite bright by winning gold at the Paris Olympics.

Now the focus is back on La Liga. Let's let AI-powered Opta supercomputerSimulate the 2024-25 season 10,000 times to get a sense of how it thinks the season might play out.

Unsurprisingly, defending champions Real Madrid are now among Carlo Ancelotti's ranks as overwhelming favorites.

But who else can challenge? Will Barcelona throw a punch? Will big-spending Atletico Madrid test Los Blancos' mettle? Who will eliminate it for survival?

One thing to understand is that these predictions are based on the Opta supercomputerat the presentWhat is known. Essentially, if all 380 games in La Liga were being played right now, that's how the model would see the end of the league. Of course, these predictions will change thousands of times throughout the season, depending on the real data that feeds the season simulation. It doesn't take into account potential point deductions, long-term injuries to star strikers, and it certainly doesn't have a crystal ball for predicting managerial changes.

Nonetheless, these preseason projections give us a first look at what certain teams might realistically achieve in the 2024-25 season. You'll see a variety of 1-20 predictions from publications this summer, and you may have made your own; think of this as a more unique prediction, devoid of opinion and instead fueled by data.

Read on for our Opta supercomputer-powered predictions for the La Liga season.

Who will win the La Liga title in the 2024-25 season?

Unless you're determined to stand out from the crowd, you'll probably always have a choice between Real Madrid and Barcelona when it comes to picking the La Liga champions.

The Opta Supercomputer is no exception, with the two standout candidates being Spain's two big dogs. That said, Los Blancos are undoubtedly the big favorites, with Carlo Ancelotti's side as likely as 86% to win the La Liga title for the third time in four seasons.

Mbappe scored 44 goals in all competitions for Paris Saint-Germain last season, tied for the most in Europe's top five leagues (alongside Harry Kane) - and with the likes of Vinicius Junior and Jude Bellingham in the mix, it's not surprising to see Real Madrid favored, but it may be a bit shocking to see such a huge possibility .

Barcelona have a much smaller chance of winning at just 10.3%, and after Joan Laporta's bizarre reversal of Xavi at the end of last season, they have of course come under new management in the form of Hansie Fricker.

Blaugrana are expected to finish second (50.6%) ahead of Atletico. Diego Simeone's side have spent big to bring in Julian Alvarez, Alexandre Solot and Robin Le Normand, with Conor Gallagher close behind, but our supercomputer expects these signings won't be enough to propel Atletico to their third league title under Simeone - they have only a 2.2% chance of finishing first, a 17.6% chance of finishing second and a 29% chance of finishing third.

Girona were looking good for most of last season but faded towards the end, but this time around they only have a 0.8% chance of beating the Trojans.

Which team will qualify for the Champions League?

Not that most of last season was foolproof, but Atletico ended up comfortably securing a spot in the Champions League, eight points ahead of fifth-placed Athletic Club.

So, assuming Atletico Madrid join their city rivals Barcelona in the Champions League qualifying rounds, which teams are most likely to be in contention for the fourth (and final, barring a turnaround in the UEFA coefficient rankings) spot in Europe's elite club competition?

Girona, who will be playing in their first intercontinental tournament this season, are on course for a fourth-place finish, albeit with just 20.21 TP3T, a supercomputer that hedges its bets somewhat. They have also lost key players, including Savinho, who joined Manchester City, Jan Cueto, who now plays for Borussia Dortmund, and last season's top scorer in La Liga, Artyom Dovbik, who has been sold to Roma.

Meanwhile, Athletic Club, who won the Copa del Rey last season, want to keep hold of Nico Williams and see him lead them into the big time. They have a 16.8% chance of finishing fourth and an 18.3% chance of finishing fifth. it would be surprising to see them drop out of the top seven, so expect them to be there or thereabouts.

Similarly, their Basque rivals Real Sociedad are expected to enter the equation; they have a 49% chance of finishing between fourth and sixth. Their chances could suffer if key midfielders Martin Zubimendi and Mikel Merino leave - they are being courted by Liverpool and Arsenal respectively.

Villarreal are favored to challenge for a top six spot, but their squad does look a little thin. Former Arsenal winger Nicolas Pepe has signed a free transfer deal, but will it be enough to propel the Yellow Submarine into Europe? Especially after losing Sørloth, who scored 26 goals in all competitions last season with an expected goals (xG) of just 13.9.

Andalusian rivals Real Betis and Sevilla will also be there or thereabouts, although the latter endured a tough season in 2023-24, finishing in 14th place.

Betis have Europa League games to contend with, but they have an experienced squad, coached by Manuel Pellegrini. William Jose was their top scorer last season (14) but has moved to Spartak Moscow, although perhaps UEFA Cup qualification is the best they can realistically hope for.

Who will be relegated from La Liga in the 2024-25 season?

Only one promoted team, Granada, made an immediate return to the second division last season, with Las Palmas in 16th place and Alaves in 10th.

But what do our models make of the survival chances of promoted Spaniards, Real Valladolid and Leganes this time around?

Wells.... Fans of these clubs might want to look away now.

The Leganes are the team most likely to be at the bottom of the pack, with the Madrid minnows coming in last in a 19.41 TP3T simulation run by the Opta supercomputer. In fact, they dropped a total of 46.71 TP3T in those simulations.

Given the slightly higher chances of relegation, Valladolid - whose most likely position is also 20th (16.8%) - have a 55.5% chance of avoiding relegation. Espanyol have a 43.4% chance of finishing in the bottom three.

Las Palmas can't exactly be considered out of danger - they suffered relegation in a 41.8% simulation. Rayo Vallecano are expected to finish around 16th, but Getafe could be there too. Osasuna, Alaves, Mallorca and fallen giants Valencia are expected to have enough time to end up in the middle of the table.

Opta Simulation La Liga 2024-25 Points Table

After simulating the 2024-25 season 10,000 times, we were able to rank the teams by averaging each club's point total across these simulations. Below are the results obtained by the Opta supercomputer from these simulations:

First:Real Madrid - 89.3 average points
Second place: Barcelona - 76.5
Third place: Atletico Madrid - 69.7
Fourth place: Girona - 65.7
Fifth place: Athletic Club - 63.5
Sixth place: Real Sociedad - 62.1
Seventh place: Villarreal - 59.4
Eighth place: Real Betis - 54.0
Ninth place: Sevilla - 49.0
Tenth place: Valencia - 46.6
Tenth place:Celta Vigo - 46.5
12th - Mallorca - 46.0
13th place: Alaves - 45.4
14th place: Osasuna - 44.9
15th place: Getafe - 41.8
16th place: Vallecano - 41.0
17th place: Las Palmas - 38.8
(prefix indicating ordinal number, e.g. first, number two etc)18 names: Spanish - 38.5
No. 19 RoyalValladolid - 38.0
20th place: Leganes - 37.7

How does the Opta supercomputer model work?

- Opta's league prediction model estimates the likelihood of a team finishing in each position in the competition. As a result, we can see how successful a team's season is likely to be, whether it's their chances of relegation or winning the title.

- The model does this by using betting market odds and Opta Strength Rankingto estimate the probability of each match result (win, draw or loss). Odds and rankings are based on historical and recent team performance.

- The model uses these match result probabilities to take into account the strength of the opposition and simulates the remaining fixtures in the competition thousands of times. By analyzing the results of each simulation, the model can see how often a team finishes at the bottom of each league to make our final prediction.