La Liga Predictions: 2023-24 Season

Real Madrid are five points clear at the top of La Liga after their big win this weekend. Who can stop them from extending their record to 36 Spanish top flight titles?

The 2023-24 La Liga season has already seen 240 games played, with only 37% remaining in the season. Spain's top flight is now taking shape, the real contenders for European qualification places have been formed, and the battle for survival at the bottom of the table is well underway. This makes it an ideal opportunity to see how the Opta supercomputer predicts the remainder of the season.

It's been a good season for goalscoring fans in La Liga, currently averaging 2.64 goals per game, the highest league tally since the 2017-18 season. The top two, Real Madrid and Girona, have contributed 52 each, their total the most in the FA Cup ahead of Barcelona (50).

The two teams met in the Spanish top flight in the capital this weekend, with Real Madrid winning 4-0. This keeps Carlo Ancelotti's side unbeaten in 18 league games, their longest unbeaten run in La Liga since September 2021 (25 games).

Their last loss in La Liga was against rivals Atlético Madrid on September 24th, and since their next match on September 27th, they have dropped just eight points (W14 D4), six more than any other team.

Such is their excellent form that the Opta supercomputer sees little chance of anyone challenging them for the title with only 14 matchdays remaining. Madrid - who won the league for the last time in the 2021-22 season - were crowned champions in 97.5% of the 10,000 simulations made by Opta Supercomputer during the current season. That's their highest predicted chance of winning the title all season and more than double their pre-season prediction of 47.7%.

Most of the difference in season predictions from preseason to now can be explained by Barcelona's poor season.

They started the 2023-24 season as defending champions and the second favorite in the Liga MX title race at 25.9% with Opta Supercomputer. However, after winning their first 24 games by just 51 points - 11 fewer than at this stage last season - those chances are now just 0.4%, meaning that in the supercomputer's current 10,000 season simulations, they have only ended up winning the championship 400 times. Even considering their current form, that feels generous. Head coach Xavi has announced that he will be leaving the club this summer and there will be a number of replacements for Barcelona this summer.

The biggest success in Spain this season has undoubtedly been Girona. They may have lost to Real Madrid this weekend and are now five points behind them in the La Liga table, but they look set to qualify for next season's Champions League. There is currently a 10-point gap between them and fifth-placed Athletic Club.

In this season's La Liga, before kick-off, the Opta supercomputer simulated the event 10,000 times, with Girona averaging 11th place. In none of those simulations did they win the league title and only finished in the top four 0.9% of the time. This prediction clearly looks silly now.

Girona have benefited from some smart reinforcements as part of the City Football Group, but much of their success has come from having a great man on the coaching bench - Mitchell. Their current chances of winning the title are just 1.9%, a dream that now looks to have passed them by, but they can console themselves with a 97.1% chance of getting UCL soccer in the 2024-25 season. This would make them the 14th different club to represent Spain in the competition since their name was changed in 1992.

Spanish clubs haven't fared too well overall in European competitions this season, meaning that La Liga seems unlikely to gain an extra spot in next season's Champions League via their UEFA coefficient. This means that fifth place isn't enough to earn a place in the competition, which makes finishing in the top four all the more important.

Apart from the three clubs mentioned above - Real Madrid (100% chances), Girona (97.1%) and Barcelona (87.8%) - the battle for UCL soccer next season seems to be between the two clubs to be unfolding between them. The battle is currently heavily in favor of Atletico Madrid (83.9%) over Athletic Club (29.0%), who are currently fifth in the table.

Those predictions could have been very different if Athletic Club hadn't beaten bottom-of-the-league Almeria on Monday night - the UCL hopefuls only managed a 0-0 draw, a disappointing result for Ernesto Valverde's side, while a win could have put them level on points with Diego Simeone's side points. Nonetheless, their chances of finishing in the top four are currently projected to be much higher than the preseason Opta Supercomputer forecast (6.1%).

At the bottom of the table, Almeria have historically underperformed this season. Their seven points after 24 games are the second fewest won in the Spanish top flight after 24 games in a season - only Athletic Gijon (six points) did worse in the 1997-98 season.

As a result, they are as good as they look in the eyes of the Opta supercomputer, with a 99.8% chance of being relegated this season.Granada are only six points ahead of them and seven points from safety, so there is a 94.0% chance of dropping into the second division next season. They have 13 points from 24 games, their worst ever La Liga season in their 27 seasons as a top-flight club.

According to Opta Supercomputer, the third and final relegation spot is only slightly more complicated. Cadiz are currently 18th in the table and they have a 72.8% chance of being relegated. However, Celta Vigo are not safe, as they are only 3 points above Cadiz. The supercomputer currently gives them a 16.0% chance of relegation.Other outside contenders include Mallorca (7.3%), Rayo Vallecano (3.8%), Sevilla (3.7%) and Alaves (1.5%), while Villarreal (0.9%) would have to have dramatic problems to be dragged in.

Alaves (41.7%) are the pre-season favorites to be relegated, so they should be commended for their current 10-point lead over 18th-place Cadiz, while Las Palmas are the second favorites to be relegated before the season starts (41.5%). They've had a good season so far, finishing eighth and are now strong contenders for European qualification, finishing in the top six at the end of the 2023-24 season (4.8%).

How does the Opta supercomputer model work?

- Opta's league prediction model estimates the likelihood of a team finishing in each position in the competition. As a result, we can see how successful a team's season is likely to be, whether it's their chances of relegation or winning the title.

- The model estimates the probability of each game's outcome (win, draw or loss) by using betting market odds and Opta's power rankings. The odds and rankings are based on historical and recent team performance.

- The model uses these match result probabilities to take into account the strength of the opposition and simulates the remaining fixtures in the competition thousands of times. By analyzing the results of each simulation, the model can see how often a team finishes at the bottom of each league to make our final prediction.