Real Madrid vs Barcelona Prediction

Real Madrid vs Barcelona stats: quick hits

• The Opta supercomputer made Real Madrid favorites as Carlo Ancelotti's side won 46.91 TP3T in its 10,000 pre-match simulations.
• Real Madrid have not lost any of their last 25 La Liga games (W19 D6) since losing 3-1 to Atletico Madrid in September.
• Barcelona have won 10 of their last 18 away games against Real Madrid (D1 L7).

Match Preview

It has certainly been a mixed week for these two La Liga giants. Barcelona looked to be on their way to the Champions League semi-finals when Rafinha took a 1-0 lead over Paris Saint-Germain at the Stade Olimpico Luis, leading 4-2 on aggregate. However, Ronald Araujo's red card turned the tide as Paris Saint-Germain and Kylian Mbappe struck back to win 4-1 on the night to leave Xavi's side reeling.

Real Madrid also faced a tough task in the second leg of the quarter-finals as they traveled to defending champions Manchester City, but a hard-fought 1-1 draw in England sent the game to penalties, with Andrea Lunin emerging as the hero as Real Madrid progressed to the semifinals at the expense of former Barcelona boss Pep Guardiola for a last-four clash with another of Guardiola's former teams. Bayern Munich.

Two teams in very different moods will clash at the Santiago Bernabeu on Sunday, with Carlo Ancelotti's men looking to strengthen their position at the top of La Liga and Barcelona eager to return to title contention.

Before the latest Clásico, there was an eight-point gap between these two teams, with seven league games remaining in Spain. A home win would surely be the end of Barcelona's title defense, but a win for Xavi's men would close the gap to just five points.

It doesn't bode well for the visitors, as Real Madrid haven't lost a game in any competition since their sixth league game of the season, which was their sixth league game of the season, which was a 1-3 loss to Atletico Madrid in September.

Los Blancos are the deserved leaders of La Liga, scoring the most goals (67) and conceding the least (20). They could have scored more if not for the goal frame, as Real Madrid have hit the post or crossbar 16 times in the league this season. That's their highest single-season league tally since the 2020-21 season (22), although Barcelona themselves have recorded the same number (16 - also tied with Athletic Club for the most in La Liga).

In fact, Barcelona haven't really successfully defended their title all season, and it wasn't until recent weeks after they overtook Girona to move into second place that they felt like the Barcelona of the past. Indeed, after Xavi announced his decision to resign at the end of the season following a 5-3 home loss to Villarreal in January, they went on a 13-match unbeaten run in all competitions (W10 D3) before losing to Paris Saint-Germain in midweek, which was heavily influenced by the early dismissal of Araujo.

If Barcelona score on Sunday, they will score the club's 300th goal against Real Madrid in La Liga history. The 100th goal was scored in January 1962, when Sandor Kocsis scored in a 3-1 win at the Camp Nou, while Ronaldo was the man who scored the 200th goal in May 1997, also in a Barca home win, this time 1-0.

Jude Bellingham scored Real Madrid's 300th and 301st La Liga goals against Barcelona and could make another piece of history if he torments the Blues as he did at Montevideo in October, when Real Madrid rallied to win 2-1. Bellingham, who scored both goals that day, could become the third Real Madrid player, after Fanny (2006-07) and Cristiano Ronaldo (2014-15), to score in both games against Barcelona in the same La Liga season in the 21st century.

Of course, Bellingham probably won't be the only young superstar to take the stage on Sunday. Barcelona's Lamine Yamal was substituted early on against Paris Saint-Germain to make way for Inigo Martinez after Araujo was red-carded, although he provided a wonderful assist for Rafinha's goal, so he should have extra motivation to make an impact here.

Yamal has made two appearances in all competitions against Real Madrid, but this could be the teenager's first start. 16 years and 283 days old, the winger could become the second-youngest debutant in the history of La Liga, just three days behind Vicente Martínez, who made his debut for Barcelona against their arch-rivals in October 1941, at the age of 16 years and 280 days. Barcelona made his debut against their arch-rivals.

Unless he makes a dramatic U-turn - which he has repeatedly insisted he won't - this will be Xavi's final stint as Barcelona manager. He has won four and lost five of his nine games against Real Madrid in all competitions. He'll be hoping to improve on that record, as Xavi has the highest margin of defeat (56%) of any manager who has coached at least six leagues.

As for team news, Aurelian Chouamene should return to the Real Madrid squad after being suspended against Manchester City, while Thibaut Courtois and David Alaba remain long-term absentees.

Barcelona also have long-term injured Alejandro Valverde and Xavi out.

Real Madrid vs Barcelona Head-to-head

Real Madrid have won their last three meetings with Barcelona, including twice this season. Real Madrid have only won three league games in a season on four previous occasions, the last time being in the 2012-13 season when they met six times under Jose Mourinho (W3 D2 L1).

Bellingham's second goal gave Los Blancos a 2-1 win in the other game, with Ilkay Gündoğan opening the scoring early on, the England midfielder scoring the winner in the 92nd minute in dramatic fashion.

The other encounter was much easier for Real Madrid, who won the Spanish Super Cup final 4-1 in January, with a Vinicius Junior hat-trick getting Carlo Ancelotti's side on track. Robert Lewandowski equalized between Vinicius' second and third goals and Rodrigo scored the fourth for Real Madrid.

Barcelona can have some hope as they have won 10 of their last 18 away games (D1 L7), including the most recent one; a 1-0 win in the Copa del Rey semi-final last season. These are the club's previous 48 away wins against Clásico opponents (W10, D15, L23).

In the history of El Clásico, a total of 600 La Liga goals have been scored, with Real Madrid narrowly winning by 301-299. The only two La Liga meetings in the competition's history are Barcelona vs Athletic Club (611) and Real Madrid vs Athletic Club (610).

Recent Tables

Since the aforementioned loss to Atlético de Madrid, Real Madrid are unbeaten in their last 25 La Liga matches (W19 D6), their longest single-season unbeaten run since the 1989-90 season (G28 W20 D8).

Real Madrid have won their last four La Liga games and haven't conceded a league goal at home in their last four games at the Santiago Bernabeu. Last week, they won 1-0 away to Mallorca thanks to a goal from Chouamene.

Barcelona have not lost any of their last 10 La Liga matches (W8 D2) and have kept a clean sheet in their last six. Not since October 2014 under Luis Enrique (G8 W7 D1) have they kept seven or more consecutive clean sheets in this competition.

Their last league game was a 1-0 win in Cadiz, with Joao Felix scoring the only goal.

Opta Strength Ranking

Opta Power Rankings is a global team ranking system that assigns ability scores to over 13,000 domestic soccer teams on a scale of 0 to 100, where 0 is the worst ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.

Ahead of Sunday's kickoff, here are the Opta power rankings for both sides.

Real Madrid vs Barcelona Prediction

A win for Real Madrid would put them 11 points clear at the top of La Liga.The Opta supercomputer predicts they are likely to do just that, with the hosts winning 45.9% in their 10,000 pre-match simulations.

A Barcelona victory would close the gap to five points, which could give the Catalans hope of getting back into the title race in the final weeks of the season. The supercomputer puts the chances of a win at 25.1% for Xavi's side and a draw at 28.0%.

A win for the visitors would be the only thing that could change the outcome of Opta's season simulation, with Real Madrid winning the title with a 99.0% chance, while Barcelona is only 1.0% likely to do so.