Milan vs Liverpool Predictions

Milan vs Liverpool stats: quick hits

• Liverpool are the favorites to win the first leg of the Champions League, beating Milan 48.21 TP3T in a pre-match simulation on the Opta supercomputer.
• Liverpool have won four of their last five European matches (L1) away from home against Italian teams, all of which have been played after 2020.
• Milan are unbeaten in their last four matches against English teams in the Champions League (W2 D2).

Match Preview

Liverpool meet Milan in their first Champions League game of the season in what will be Sloter's first game in Europe in charge of the Reds.

Both sides had very different fortunes at the weekend. Liverpool's excellent start to the season came to an abrupt end at home to Nottingham Forest. As pre-tournament favorites to win the title, Liverpool are expected to continue their winning start under new manager Sloter.

But Forest had other ideas as they recorded their first away win over Liverpool in the top flight since February 1969, ending their 25-match winless run in the league at Anfield.

Milan finally opened their season with a 4-0 thrashing of promotion rivals Venice. Four goals in the first 30 minutes helped ease the pressure on Paolo Fonseca, who earned his first win as Milan boss at the fourth time of asking.

Slotter now turns his attention to Europe as Liverpool return to the Champions League after a year in the UEFA Cup. They reached the quarter-finals of last season's competition before being knocked out by eventual winners Atlanta.

Sloter, of course, coached Feyenoord in the 2023-24 season. The Dutch side qualified for the group stage of the Champions League, but after losing three away games against Atletico Madrid, Lazio and Celtic, Slotter could only guide them to a third-place finish in Group E. The Netherlands were the first team to qualify for the group stage of the Champions League.

Despite having one of the most difficult fixtures, Liverpool are confident of a win here. They have won four of their last five European matches (L1) away from home against Italian teams, all five of which have been played since 2020. They also did the double over Milan in the 2021-22 UCL group stage.

Mohamed Salah started the Premier League season hot and flourished in Europe. His 41 Champions League goals for Liverpool are the most scored by any player for an English club.

Milan are unbeaten in their last four matches against English teams in the Champions League (W2 D2), each of which came in the previous two seasons (against Tottenham and Newcastle). They have never before avoided defeat in five consecutive matches against English opposition in the Europa League/Champions League.

In team news, Ismael Bennacer, Alessandro Florenzi and Marco Sportiello will be out of Milan for an extended period of time, while Malik Tiao is out until the end of the month with an ankle injury.

Liverpool came out of the weekend's games unscathed. Javi Elliot was the only player in the squad to miss out through injury, although Federico Chiesa is still lacking match fitness.

Milan vs Liverpool Head-to-head

This will be the fifth meeting between Milan and Liverpool in European competition, with half of their previous meetings taking place in Champions League finals (2/4) - 2004-05 (Liverpool won on penalties) and 2006-07 (Milan won 2-1).

Liverpool have won all three of their Champions League matches at the Stadio Giuseppe Meazza, winning 1-0 in 2008, 2-0 against Inter Milan in 2022 and 2-1 against Milan in 2021. The Reds are the only team to have played there more than once as the visiting team in the competition while maintaining a 1001 TP3T record.

Recent Tables

Despite their victory at the weekend, Milan are yet to convince under Fonseca. They've won just one of their first four games in Serie A and are four points behind leaders Napoli. They really haven't had any problems creating good chances; they lead all teams in Serie A in touches in the opposition box (133), while only Atalanta (7.9) have a higher number of expected goals than them (7.6).

However, they have been vulnerable at the back and have been conceding high value chances to their opponents. Milan's 0.17 xG per shot faced is the highest in the league. Unsurprisingly, their opponents' 20.71 TP3T shot conversion rate is also the highest in the league. So while they don't turn the ball over at a high rate, their opponents get excellent chances when they get sliced up.

Liverpool are hoping their slip-up against Forest was just a blip. After all, they won three of their first four games at the Slot and Hudson-Odoi's goal at the weekend was the first they had conceded all season.