Champions League Predictions for 2024-25 Season: Opta Predictions

The Champions League is back, although Europe's elite club competition will have a very different look for the 2024-25 season.

Not only has the tournament increased from 32 to 36 teams, but the format has also changed significantly.

The previous four-team, eight-team group has been replaced by a league stage where all clubs will play eight games instead of the previous six and be ranked in a full table.

Finishing in the top eight ensures immediate progression to the Round of 16, while teams between 9th and 24th will compete in the new Champions League Play-Offs for the right to join the leading teams in the prestigious knockout stages.

There is no longer a safety net in the UEFA Cup either - the bottom 12 of the 36 teams and the eight teams that lose in the play-offs are immediately eliminated from continental soccer this season.

Real Madrid enter the revamped tournament as defending champions. The 15-time champions have won two of the last three seasons and are now joined by Kylian Mbappé.

The teams Real Madrid beat in those two finals - Liverpool and Borussia Dortmund - are also involved, as are 2022-23 European champions Manchester City, their Premier League title rivals Arsenal, and continental heavyweights Barcelona and Bayern Munich,countrymeet with (circumstances)Milan (Italy)and Paris St. Germain as well.

Four teams are participating in Europe's biggest tournament for the first time: Bologna, Brest, Girona and Slovan Bratislava; meanwhile, Aston Villa will be playing in the Champions League era for the first time, after being crowned European champions when the tournament was known as the Europa League.

But who will come out on top this season?The Opta supercomputer continues to garner plenty of attention during the domestic league season, and it has also made some high-profile calls ahead of Euro 2024.

Now, once again, it has no shame in putting its (robotic) neck on the line.

The supercomputer has simulated the 2024-25 season 10,000 times and confirmed its pre-match percentages. So, without further delay, let's take a look at its Champions League predictions.

Champions League predictions for the 2024-25 season

• Manchester City (25.3%) Rated by Opta Supercomputer as favorites to win the Champions League this season.
• City won the tournament in 2023 after eliminating Pep Guardiola's side on penalties in the quarterfinals last season. They also won an unprecedented fourth consecutive Premier League title.
• The team most likely to stop an England team is the defending championsReal Madrid (18.2%).They knocked out Manchester City last season and have reached at least the semifinals for the fourth year in a row.
• Italian championshipInter Milan (10.9%)are the runners-up to City in 2023, and according to the supercomputer, they are the only team with a chance of exceeding 10%The
• If none of those three teams win, the winning team will likely come from one of the other six evenly matched contenders:Arsenal, Barcelona, Leverkusen, Bayern Munich, Liverpool and Paris Saint-Germain.

Favorites to win the Champions League

Despite last year's disastrous elimination.But City (25.3%) are the favorites to win this season's Champions League with the Opta supercomputer.

There are 36 teams competing in the league stage, but Pep Guardiola's team is still considered to almost certainly fill one of the top lists in the new overall standings. In our 21.91 TP3T simulation, they ranked first in 36 events; had 55.51 TP3T times to round out the top four; and finished in the top eight with a massive 77.51 TP3T ratio, automatically qualifying for the knockout stage.

It's not hard to prove that Manchester City are the favorites to win the title. Excluding penalties, they are unbeaten in their final 23 games in the Champions League, with 16 victories, and if they avoid defeat in their first two games of the 2024-25 season they will equal the longest unbeaten run by a team in the history of the tournament, matching rivals Manchester United's 25-game unbeaten streak since the end of the May 2009 campaign.

Pep Guardiola also loves the tournament, and the Catalan has the highest win percentage (63.7%) of any manager responsible for overseeing 50 or more Champions League matches, with 109 victories in 171 matches.

Manchester City (95.2%) are almost certainly part of the knockout stages once we get there and they are expected to flourish again. Even against the continent's best opposition, they are likely to continue their winning ways, with at least half of them reaching at least the semi-finals in our UCL simulation (55.0%). Manchester City are in the final at a rate of 39.9% and have a 25.3% probability of lifting the trophy.

As Real Madrid did last season, if a team has realistic hopes of winning the Champions League, they will likely need to find a way to knock out Manchester City.

Real Madrid (soccer team)Winning UCL again in our simulation has a probability of 18.2%. this is an impressive pre-match winning percentage, and without a formidable opponent like Manchester City, Real Madrid usually wins.

Adding Mbappe to a Champions League-winning side would be a daunting challenge for other contenders. The former Paris Saint-Germain striker tied with Harry Kane for top scorer in the 2023-24 season and has already scored 48 career Champions League goals at the age of 25, enough to ensure he is among the top 10 scorers in the tournament's history.

Real Madrid's chances of reaching the semifinals for the fifth consecutive season are 48.91 TP3T, while they appear in the 2025 final at Allianz Arena with a healthy 31.61 TP3T.

With a projected point total of 16.7 in the conference portion of their schedule, they're likely (74.01 TP3T) to automatically finish in the top eight and then be a team that rivals desperately try to avoid in the late going.

Inter Milan (10.9%) is the only team to enter the tournament with more than 10% Champions League wins.

Simone Inzaghi's side were beaten by Atletico Madrid in the first knockout round last season, but it was a very close game that was settled on penalties. Inter Milan did win the Serie A title last season and reached the UCL final a year ago, and many thought they were unlucky to lose to Manchester City in Istanbul.

Inter Milan, who have an 86.2% chance of advancing to the Round of 16 (the top 8 advance automatically at 54.4%), made it all the way to the semifinals at a rate of 21.2% in a simulation of 36.7%.

Manchester City and Real Madrid are the clear frontrunners, but there is also a considerable gap between Inter Milan and the rest of the chasing pack, so this season's predictions suggest that the supercomputer is showing great confidence in the Italian champions.

As such, their games against Manchester City and Arsenal in the league stages should be worth a look.

Other Champions League contenders

The six teams are evenly matched in the latter group, and they all start the tournament with realistic hopes of beginning a long journey.

Arsenal, Barcelona, Leverkusen, Bayern Munich, Liverpool and Paris Saint-Germain are the teams in question, all of whom have a chance of winning between 4.1% and 6.3%.

In this group.Arsenal (name)Performing the best in our simulation by a slim margin means they are ranked the fourth most likely team to win overall.

In a statistic that won't sit well with Premier League teams, Arsenal have played the most matches (197) in the history of the Europa League/Champions League but have never won a trophy.

But they are at least very consistent, having made it out of the group stage in each of their last 15 matches. The Gunners are once again in the Round of 16 in our simulation this time around, with a probability of 76.5%.

They had 13.21 TP3T going into the end and won the game with a 6.31 TP3T ratio, so Mikel Arteta's team has a real shot at making the tournament.

The Barcelona prediction models are also very favorable to Barcelona this season. Led by Robert Lewandowski, a striker with 94 career Champions League goals, Barcelona have paired one of the tournament's greatest strikers with a Champions League-winning coach following the appointment of Hansie Fricker.

According to Opta's fixture difficulty rankings, Barcelona are fourth in the league stage of the competition and are actually more likely than the likes of Inter Milan and Arsenal to top the 36-team table with 8.91 TP3T and a projected 15.1 points.

It would be a big shock if Barcelona didn't make it to the Round of 16 (83.3%), and from then on they will be looking to make a bigger impact in the knockout stages than in previous seasons.

Bayern MunichIt also got a nice draw - the second easiest based on our aforementioned analysis of the difficulty of each team's schedule. They made it to the Round of 16 with a high rate of 80.3%, with only four teams considered more likely to advance.

Interestingly, however, Vincent Kompany's team is favored over domestic rivals with a probability of 4.1%Leverkusen (5.4%)Even less likely to win the championship, Leverkusen ended Bayern's 11-year Bundesliga dominance last season and now look a force to be reckoned with on the continent.

Early games against Inter Milan, Liverpool, Atletico Madrid and Milan will be highly anticipated as Xavi Alonso's men look to prove they can live up to such high expectations.

Liverpool (England)Returning after a year in the UEFA Cup, they are seventh at 4.2%.

The Reds have a 31.7% chance of finishing in the top eight and advancing automatically with a predicted total of 13 points. Those numbers may not seem too impressive, but that's largely due to a tough draw rated as the third most difficult draw overall.

In order to surpass that figure and boost their hopes of finishing in the top eight under new boss Arne Slaughter, Liverpool may need to get a positive result against Real Madrid, against whom they have had a poor recent record - drawing just one and losing seven of their previous eight meetings, including the the last two UCL finals.

On the bright side, Mohamed Salah has started the Premier League season in good form, and he usually excels in Europe as well. His 41 Champions League goals for Liverpool are the highest number scored by any player for an English club.

Paris Saint GermainHaving yet to cross the finish line in the Champions League, their cause for the 2024-25 season hasn't been helped by Mbappe's departure and a brutal initial schedule, which our model rates as the toughest.

They will have to play Manchester City, Barcelona, Atletico Madrid and Arsenal in their eight league games, so they are considered more likely to make the play-offs for ninth through 24th place (56.41 TP3T) than they are to finish in the top eight (27.61 TP3T). However, if they can progress well in the early stages of the competition, the system sees them as a team that can still do some damage.

best of the rest

It would be a major surprise to the Opta supercomputer if a team outside the top nine won the Champions League, but the system hasn't exactly dashed the hopes of some of the other prominent participants.

Atletico Madrid, Borussia Dortmund, RB Leipzigrespond in singingSport PortugalBoth have more than a one in fifty chance of winning.

UEFA Cup winnersAtlantaand regressionJuventus, Italian football teamNot too far behind in the standings, both Italian teams are considered more likely to reach the Round of 16.

Of those six teams, Borussia Dortmund (13.9 projected points), Atletico Madrid (13.0 points) and Atalanta (12.9 points) are most likely to impress early in the league. They are automatically in the top eight with ratios of 41.51 TP3T, 31.21 TP3T and 30.71 TP3T, respectively.

Atletico Madrid have been busy in the transfer market, hoping to join them once the later stages arrive. According to our prediction model, they have a 30.5% chance of reaching the quarter-finals, while Borussia Dortmund's chances are even higher at 35.4%.However, the German side's hopes of making it to the finals once again stand at just 5.7%.

No other team in the competition has more than an 1% chance of winning the game, so the remaining 21 clubs can certainly be considered cold.

Champions League Cold

Considering the competitiveness and financial strength of the Premier League, the AStonewall.The ranking is firmly in mid-table, below the likes of Sporting Portugal, Monaco, PSV Eindhoven and Benfica, which may come as a surprise to some.

Villa's chances of earning a top-eight automatic advancement to the Round of 16 are just 11.31 TP3T, and they're more likely to make the playoffs between ninth and 24th (53.91 TP3T).

Villa have a predicted points total of just 10.4 from their eight games, but there are some reasons for optimism. The Matchday 1 game against Young Boys gives them the chance to get off to a much-needed strong start, and despite having to face Bayern and Juventus, Villa have the fifth easiest fixture on the schedule.

The last time a newly-promoted team from England was Leicester City in the 2016-17 season, they beat Club Brugge in their first game, and Brugge are one of Villa's eight opponents this time around. Capitalizing on games like this will be crucial.

Having Emery will certainly help Villa as well. Villa are the sixth different team he has coached in the Champions League, only Real Madrid boss Carlo Ancelotti (8) has coached more, and that doesn't include Emery's huge European success in the UEFA Cup.

The other team to receive the Champions Leaue draw was the Celtic.The Scottish champions have had the easiest schedule of all 36 teams, with an average opponent rating of 87.4. The unluckiest team, Paris Saint-Germain, has a five-point higher opponent rating of 92.4.

Celtic's 28th Europa League/Champions League appearance is second only to Manchester United (30 appearances) among English teams.

They have struggled of late, failing to get out of the group for the fifth time in a row, while manager Brendan Rodgers has won just three of the 24 games he has played.

But the new format and draw could help Celtic, who have a predicted points total of 9.7 and a 57.2% chance of finishing in the top 24 (7.3% for the top eight and 49.9% for the play-offs).

It means Celtic can go into the game with real excitement, although a fast start against the tournament's weakest team, Slovan Bratislava, is essential.

Meanwhile, seven-time championMilan (Italy)Having to break the odds to make an impact this season, they came out of a tough group last season. In our simulation, they only have 44.7% to reach the Round of 16 and are ranked as the 20th most likely winner.

Champions League debut

As for all the teams making their debut.GironaHas the best chance to do well after an impressive WHL season a year ago.

Girona are considered more likely to win the game than Milan, but that is more a reflection of the system being stacked against the Red and Blacks.

Michel's team is ranked 16th overall and could actually aim to finish at least in the top 16, which they did with 48.8% in our simulation. Out of all 36 teams, they and Milan are the two teams most likely to make the playoffs between 9th and 24th place.

Bologna (52.8%)It's also possible to reach the play-offs, but Ligue 1 teamsBrest (name)To go the distance, will do well. They are in the bottom 12 with a rate of 63.1% and are only expected to score 8 points in as many games.

Unfortunately, for other newcomers Slovan Bratislava For that matter, they are one of the four teams that haven't even won a game in our 10,000 simulations. The other three teams are Crvena Zvezda, Donetsk Miners and Young Boys, while the other three - Brest, Sturm Graz and Salzburg - have only won at a rate of 0.011 TP3T for the Match.

It could be a very tough couple of months for Slovan, who face the daunting task of facing Manchester City in their first home game after the Celtic trip. They have a 28.2% chance of finishing 36th out of 36 teams - for context, the second most likely team to finish bottom has a much lower chance (11.9% for the Miners).

In our simulation of 75.31 TP3T, Slovakia is in the bottom six, and they've only made it to the round of 16 121 times out of 10,000 teams, so this might be a good time to reflect on what Slovakia has done so well just to get this far, making the tournament for the first time in 12 tries.