Bundesliga Predictions 2025-26: Opta Supercomputer Predictions

Who will winBundesligaChampions? Who will qualify for the Champions League? Which clubs are most likely to be relegated? We answer all the key questions with our Bundesliga 2025-26 season predictions via Opta supercomputerThe

Germany's top-flight soccer returned to Munich on Friday as champions Bayern kicked off the new Bundesliga campaign against RB Leipzig at the Allianz Arena.

Vincent Kompany's first season in charge of Bavaria was a success for Bayern 13 points ahead of Bayer Leverkusen will take the master from death to ourselves.

Harry Kane scored 31 goals in 26 league matches for Bayern, a 10-2023 season his wonderful debut season down 24, but still enough to stay Torjägerkanone (top scorer award).

Bayern gave Kane further support ahead of the 2024-25 season after losing at the FIFA Club World Cup, losing 2-1 to Paris Saint-Germain in the quarter-finals after Jamal Musiala fractured his fibula.

Luis Diaz scored the best goal in his best season Liverpool, after scoring a total of 17 times to join Bayern Arne Slot for the Premier League Championship match 2024-25.

Center back Jonathan Tah also arrived from Leverkusen on a free transfer Accepting new management after losing Xabi Alonso to Real Madrid Madrid.

Alonso was unable to orchestrate a successful defense of their Bundesliga title and successor Erik Ten Hag had to cope with a lot of change. Florian Wiltz, Jeremie Frimpong, Granit Xhaka and Lukas Hradecky also left, while Amine Adli left in close connection with the move to Bournemouth. Malik Tillman, Jarrell Quansah and Ibrahim Maza are among the many new signings filling some of those gaps.

Leverkusen was not the only team to lose talent, Frankfurt Frankfurt finished third in the 2024-25 season after selling striker Hugo Ekitikay to Liverpool. Former Mainz star Jonathan Burckhardt is the Frenchman's replacement, as Dino Toppmöller hopes to achieve by qualifying for the Champions League again.

Borussia Monchengladbach Borussia Dortmund are hoping to perform better in their first full season under Niko Kovac, only locked out of the Champions League for the final matchday of the 2024-25 season, while Werner takes on the task of overseeing Leipzig's latest rebuild after finishing sixth last term.

There's more stories to follow from Stuttgart Building on their German Cup win against Hamburg, SV's long-awaited return to the big time - and of course, their derby against St. Bubbleley.

After simulating 10,000 events, the Opta supercomputer predicted how the 2025-26 season would pan out Outside.

Who will win the Bundesliga?

Bayern Munich finished in third place behind Leverkusen and VfB2023-24 Stuttgart, but as many expected, this proved to be a temporary blip.

Reclaiming the title with two games remaining in the 2024-25 season, Bayern have won 13 of the last 12 Bundesliga campaigns, a run of consecutive titles under Jürgen Klopp in Borussia Dortmund's 2010-11 and 2011-12 seasons. Borussia Dortmund are third in the standings and there have been different champions in the last five years, but things look very different now.

Bayern became the overwhelming favorite to win the Supercomputer again, defending the season simulation with a 52.9%.

Bayern's transfer window hasn't been particularly busy, but Dias and Ta went straight into Vincent Kompany's starting lineup to score 2-1 in the recently renamed Franz Beckenbauer's victory over Stuttgart in the Super Cup on Saturday, with Dias' goal proving to be the winner.

The Colombian enjoyed his best scoring season last season in his career in Europe's top five leagues, also averaging 2.1 points per game Open play chances created per 90 minutes in the Premier League. Michael Ollese is the only player to surpass this figure in Bayern Bundesliga (2.88).

Diaz also won possession in the final third more times than anyone else last season for any other Liverpool striker (147 games in total), so he should be a perfect fit for a Bayern side Recorded a high 324 turnovers in the Bundesliga last season Converted 67 shots on goal, converted 15 into goals - all of which were highest figures in the league.

Dias arrives with the departure of winger Kingsley Coman and Leroy Sane, who have joined Nasr and Galatasaray respectively. This will also be Bayern's first season without Thomas Müller has been in the team since the 2007-08 season, following their excellent record The appearance maker joins the Vancouver Whitecaps Rekordmeister's outing after 756 years.

Muller played a total of only 19 matches last season, but his involvement in 15 goals (8 goals, 7 assists) is still tied for the sixth most among Bayern players, after Kane (53 points), Oulisse (40 points), Musiala (26 points), Sane (18 points) and after Serge Gnabry (15).

Bayern are just two goals away from equalling their own goals scored in a single season of the Bundesliga last season (72 in the 101-1971 season), as well as their history in the top flight, where they averaged only more goals per game under the leadership of Hans Frick (3) in the league than Vincent Kompany (2.91, the lowest) is responsible for 10 matches).

They will be looking to blow their opponents out of the water again In Kane in 2025-26, they have the most lethal finisher in Europe. Since joining Bayern in 2023, Kane has scored 86 goals in 70.7 Expected goals in all competitions (xG), best over-performance From any player in Europe's top five leagues. He is eyeing a third Bundesliga Golden Boot award, which would leave Robert Lewandowski and Gerd Müller are the only players to have scored more (seven each).

If Bayern makes a mistake, the supercomputer will feel tenhach, tenhach will feel Managing their B-team from 2013 to 2015 can be profitable. This Dutchman's Leverkusen have a 16.9% chance of reclaiming the title and are considered the most likely runners-up with 22.2%.

Ten Hahn calls for patience in rebuilding after the host The exit, after which the loss of the organization's core Wiltz will certainly be felt In his last two seasons, he was involved in 67 goals BayArena (34 goals, 33 assists).

In Wiltz, Zaca, Frimpong and Tower, Leverkusen have lost four of their top six players involved in the attacking sequence Last season in the Bundesliga, only the left back
Alex Grimaldo (third) and Piero Hincapié (fifth) are from that group.

However, they still retained Patrick Schick, who scored 21 points in the Bundesliga last season, making 31 appearances and scoring one goal, recording the highest xG overperformance in the league at 8.3 (12.7 xG). His clinical finish was crucial because Leverkusen finished only fifth in the league in xG (58.5), but scored the second most goals (72).

Ten Hahn is hoping that Ibrahim Maza - who finished with the second-most Bundesliga dribbles 2 (75) at Hertha Berlin last season - and Malik Tillman can provide enough support for Schick.

U.S. international Tillman has been given the No. 10 jersey by Wiltz following his transfer from Eindhoven; no player better than him six goals from outside the penalty area in the Euro 10 made the list for the season.

Dortmund is the third favorite for the supercomputer, topping the simulation at 15.81 TP3T, and at 21.11 TP3T, just 1.11 TP3T less than Leverkusen.

BVB has sneaked into the Champions League campaign in each of the last two competitions, capitalizing on a fifth-place finish in the Bundesliga In the 2023-24 season, Freiburg finished fourth in the final In the 2024-25 season, after 30 matchdays outside the top four.

Kovacic became the first man to win the Bundesliga and the German Cup doubling as a player and coach to lead Bayern in 2019, and he has made significant progress since taking over a team When Nuri Şahin was sacked, it was in 11th place in the Bundesliga in January.

Dortmund's biggest improvement under Kovacs has come in the defensive third. Having conceded 1.72 goals and 1.35 xG in Bundesliga matches under Shaheen, they saw those numbers drop to 1.21 1.19 after the January change of command.

Serhou Guirassy stays put after match with Raphinha Tied for top scorer in the Champions League last season (13 times), a He scored five goals in four FIFA Club World Cups.

However, Borussia Dortmund have been relatively quiet on the transfer front and Jobe Bellingham was the best purchase since he helped Sunderland win promotion to the Premier League. After a chaotic few years, BVB or happy to consolidate in the top three finished, achieving that goal in a simulation of 54.7%.

Who will qualify for the Champions League?

Bayern (91.6%), Leverkusen (69.5%) and Borussia Dortmund (68%) are all considered likely to win the UEFA Champions League in the 2025-26 season. But with the top four qualifying for UEFA's elite club competition, the top four The supercomputer predicts an interesting battle.

Six other teams were allocated more than 10% chances The top four - Frankfurt, Stuttgart, Red Bull Leipzig, Mainz 05, Freiburg and Werder Bremen.

Frankfurt finished third last season, their highest Bundesliga finish since the 1992-93 season (which also saw them finish third), and they earned a 36.4% A chance at the top four again.

Of course, they will have to cope without Ekitiké, who has already His Liverpool career has started well, scoring two goals Game. Ekitiké and Omar Mamouche - who joined Manchester City in January - were the only players to score more than five league goals they scored last season.

But Frankfurt are known for their ability to develop strikers, having sold Randal Kolo Muani, Ekitiké, Marmoush, Luka Jović and Sébastien Haller for fees in excess of €500,000 over the last six years. Could Burkart be their next star? With 18 Bundesliga goals Mainz, he is the highest scoring German in Europe's top five leagues Last semester.

Stuttgart followed with a 28.8% probability of finishing in the top four. They ended up in ninth place under Sebastian Hoeneß term, but did win their first major trophy in 18 years, beating Arminia Bielefeld in the German Cup final.

Despite the interest of Bayern, Stuttgart retains one of the hottest properties of the Bundesliga Nick Walter Meade. He was involved in 20 goals in all competitions last season (17 goals and 3 assists), becoming one of only 15 players Born in 2002 or later, from the top five European leagues.

Red Bull Leipzig are expected to finish sixth, but enter the top four in the case of 27.4%. Like Frankfurt, who lost their star striker to the Premier League, Manchester United pounced on Benjamin Cesc.

Cesc's Bundesliga goal return dropped slightly from 14 goals 2023-24 to 25th in the 13-2024 season, but with Leipzig dropping from fourth to seventh in the table, the Slovenian spent less time in danger Position and saw his per 90 touches in the opponents' penalty area drop from 5.8 to 3.7.

The Brazilian striker Romulo has the task of filling the vacancy of Cesc after arriving from the Turkish Super League team Göztepe, while John Bakayoko is an exciting new addition to Eindhoven. Leipzig is also Under new management, Werner joins Werder Bremen in the top flight after stabilizing.

Werner finished 13th, ninth and eighth after taking the lead Werder Bremen return to the Bundesliga in 2022 and his old boss is 12.3% chance of jumping into the top four under his leadership Successor Horst Steffen.

They are considered less likely to break into the Champions League than Mainz (20.2%) and Freiburg (14.3%). Both clubs had excellent seasons in 2024-25, with Bo Henriksen finishing fifth when Mainz qualified for its fourth European.

Meanwhile, Julian Schuster built on Freiburg's legacy, while his predecessor Christian Streich took his new club into contention for a Champions League spot, which they squandered 1-0 before losing 3-1 to Eintracht Frankfurt on the final day to slip out of the top four. out of the top four.

D'Angelo has gone to Frankfurt after scoring the highest number of goals for Freiburg scoring 10 goals last season, but the defense allowed the fourth-lowest xGA (43.18) in the league which should keep them ahead of the clash.

Who will be relegated to the Bundesliga?

There are no overwhelming favorites for relegation either, with eight different clubs having more than a 10% chance of making it to the bottom two.

Cologne won the Bundesliga. Last season ahead of Hamburger SV, for the third time in the last 11 years they topped the second division. However, they are favorites to be relegated, with a 31.1% chance of finishing in the bottom two and a 12.2% play-off chance of relegation.

Last season's game at Heidenheim was evenly matched, with Leo Sienza's 95th-minute goal helping to defeat them Elversbury were 4-3 on aggregate in the relegation play-offs, owning a 2-2 draw in the first leg after coming back from 0-2 down.

Frank Schmidt's men are expected to be in jeopardy once again, heading to a simulation at 29.5% that automatically closes and forces another play-in game at 11.8%.

They are one of the teams HSV hopes to catch up with after ending their seven-year Bundesliga exile. Former Europeans The champions have a 29% chance of relegation, but a 59.5% chance of avoiding the bottom three.

Their derby meeting with St. Pauli will be one of the most important matches Stories before the new event, the first of which is already scheduled for the 2nd match at the Volksparkstadion.

St. Pauli are second to last in the simulation at 28.4%. However, only Bayern (32 times) conceded fewer goals than Alexander Blessing's team (41) in the Bundesliga last season, so they'll be a tough match Nuts to crack.

Hoffenheim (15.21 TP3T), Union Berlin (15.11 TP3T), Augsburg (13.51 TP3T) and Borussia Mönchengladbach (12.31 TP3T) also have an incidence of more than one in ten chances of automatic relegation, while Wolfsburg may not be safe at 8.61 TP3T.

Opta Simulation Bundesliga Table

After simulating every game of the 2025-26 Bundesliga season 10,000 times, we were able to average the total points scored by each club in these simulations and rank the teams by position. Here is what the Opta supercomputer got from these simulations:

1st place:Bayern Munich - 72.0 Average score
Second place:Leverkusen (city in Germany) - 63.4
Third place:Borussia Dortmund (city in Germany) - 63.0
Fourth place:Frankfurt (Germany) - 54.9
Fifth place:Stuttgart - 52.6
Sixth place:RB Leipzig - 52.0
Seventh place:Mainz 05 - 49.5
Eighth place:Freiburg - 47.0
Ninth place:Werder Bremen (city in Germany) - 46.1 Paragraph
Ten names:Wolfsburg - 43.3 Paragraph
Eleven:Mönchengladbach (city in Germany) - 41.5 para.
12:Augsburg (city in Germany) - 40.5 para.
13:United Berlin - 39.8 para.
14:Hoffenheim - 39.5 para.
15:St Pauli - 35.1 Paragraph
16:Hamburg SV - 35.0 pp.
17:Heidenheim - 34.8 para.
18:Cologne, Germany - 34.4

How does the Opta supercomputer model work?

• Opta's league predictions.The model estimates the likelihood of a team finishing in every position in the game. Thus, we can see how successful a team's season is likely to be, whether it's their chances of relegation or the championship.

• The model estimates the probability of each game's outcome (win, draw, or lose) using betting market odds and Opta Strength Ranking. Odds and rankings are based on historical and recent team performance.
• The model uses these to take into account the strength of the opponents, match the outcome probabilities and simulate the remaining fixtures thousands of times. By analyzing the results of each simulation, the model can see how often teams finish each league position to create our final predictions.