Bayern vs Borussia Dortmund Predictions

Bayern vs Borussia Dortmund: Quick Hit

• Bayern are expected to win this match against Borussia Dortmund, with the Opta supercomputer rating their chances of victory at 66.8%.
• Borussia Dortmund won the most points in the Bundesliga in 2023 (28), 10 more than Bayern (18) in those 10 games.
• If Bayern Rundfunk wins this game, their chances of winning the Bundesliga title will rise from 75.4% to 89%.

Match Preview

While this is the 19th time Bayern and Borussia Dortmund have met while occupying the top two spots in the Bundesliga standings, it is only the fifth time that Dortmund have finished ahead of Bayern in the standings on those occasions. The most recent occurred on Matchday 28 of the 2018-19 season, when Bayern outclassed their rivals to win the Bundesliga title with a 5-0 thrashing of Borussia Dortmund at the Allianz Arena.

This result has not been uncommon in recent years as Bayern have had the upper hand over Dortmund for some time now. However, Dortmund can take confidence from their 2-2 draw at home to the defending champions earlier this season, as that result ended a run of seven straight Bundesliga defeats against Bayern Munich.

The Allianz Arena has not been Dortmund's favorite venue to play at lately, as Bayern have won eight consecutive league home games against them while averaging over four goals per game (33-6 overall). Throughout their history in the Bundesliga, Dortmund have only had a longer losing streak against one opponent on the road, losing 10 consecutive times to Werder Bremen between 1979 and 1989.

The implications of this result for the Bundesliga title race made this the most exciting "Klassik" in quite some time, but in order to give the game more appeal, Bayern decided to part ways with manager Julian Nagelsmann during the international break and replaced him with former Borussia Dortmund boss Thomas Tuchel. Hull.

Tuchel, who coached Dortmund from 2015-2017, averaged 2.09 points per game in the Bundesliga, a club record for a head coach in the competition. In all competitions since 1963, only one Dortmund coach who has coached at least 20 matches has matched Tuchel's 631 TP3T winning percentage at the club - current boss Edin Terzić, who has also won 631 TP3T.

Both sides look to be missing key players in this important match. Just like the first league meeting between the two sides last October, Dortmund goalkeeper Gregor Kobel is likely to miss out through injury, as is Bayern's first choice Manuel Neuer. Other Dortmund players who look doubtful or ruled out of this game altogether include Julian Brandt, Karim Adeyemi, Jamie Bino Gittens and Youssoufa Moukoko, while Lucas Hernandez will definitely not be available for the Bayern game.

The record-setting Bundesliga champions will be sweating over the health of their two biggest goal-scoring threats, top scorers Jamal Musiala (11 goals plus eight assists) and Erik Choupo-Moting (10 goals).

Previous meeting

Borussia Dortmund 2-2 Bayern Munich 8 October 2022 (Bundesliga)

Earlier this season, Borussia Dortmund's eighth consecutive Bundesliga win against Bayern Munich was drawn 2-2 at Sigurne Iduna Park - although it felt like a victory for Edin Terzić's side.

Leon Goretzka and Leroy Sane helped Bayern to a 2-0 lead at Dortmund, but for the first time since a 3-3 draw in 2006, Dortmund came from two goals down to get a point in a league game against Bayern.

Anthony Modeste was the unlikely hero for Borussia Dortmund, getting two of the three Bundesliga goals he has been involved in this season in this game. He assisted Youssoufa Moukoko for their first goal and then scored the equalizer in injury time. The goal remains the Frenchman's last in the Bundesliga to date. To add to Bayern's misery, Kingsley Coman was sent off in second half injury time after receiving a second yellow card.

While Bayern dominated possession (56%), Dortmund were the more dangerous side, taking more shots (12-9) and totaling a higher xG (1.6-0.6) than the Bavarians. Bayern's nine shots were their fewest in a Bundesliga match against Dortmund since April 2015 (six in a 1-0 win), and Bayern scored two goals from distance in the other match.

Recent Tables

So far Bayern Munich have won just 5 of their 10 Bundesliga matches in 2023 (D3 L2) and have 52 points from 25 games, their weakest Bundesliga season in 11 years. Going back to the 2011-12 season, they had 51 points from their opening 25 games, a season in which Borussia Dortmund won the title and Bayern finished second, eight points behind. That was still the last Bundesliga season in which Bayern failed to win.

Bayern showed particular defensive weaknesses in the new year, conceding 14 goals in 10 league games (1.40 per game). Until 2023, Bayern have only conceded 13 times in 15 Bundesliga matches (0.87).

In Nagelsmann's final game in charge of Bayern, they lost 1-2 away to Leverkusen despite taking the lead. It was the first time they had lost from the lead in the Bundesliga this season, and both of Leverkusen's goals came from the penalty spot - the first time Bayern had conceded twice from the penalty spot in the same Bundesliga match in 30 years (in April 1993 against Werder Bremen).

Bayern will want to rely on their excellent home form, which has seen them go unbeaten in 19 Bundesliga games at the Allianz Arena (W13 D6), while they have scored in each of their last 52 home games (171 goals, 3.29 average). Tuchel will also be hoping for a good start there - no Bayern boss has lost in his first league game in charge of the club since Franz Beckenbauer in February 1994 (3-1 at home to Stuttgart).

While Bayern have been struggling, rivals Borussia Dortmund have been near-perfect in 2023 and could pick up 28 of their 30 points this year. That's seven more points than any other team and 10 more than Bayern, while they also lead the Bundesliga standings in goals scored (30), total shots (165) and expected goals (21.4) since the new year. Going into the break for the 2022 FIFA World Cup, Dortmund were sixth in the table, nine points behind Bayern - and now find themselves at the top of the table for the first time since MD2 in the 2019-20 season.

A week later they lost 0-2 to Chelsea in the Champions League and then drew 2-2 with rivals Schalke 04 four days later, but a 6-1 home win over Köln before International Match Day removed any doubt that Dortmund would start to falter. It was the first time they had scored six goals in a Bundesliga match under Edin Terzic.

major player

Bayern Munich: Thomas Müller

Predicting the changes a new coach will make is never easy, but Tuchel should find it hard to ignore the experienced Thomas Muller. Muller was substituted at half-time in Leverkusen's last game before International Day, with Bayern still leading 1-0. Without Muller, the Bavarians went on to lose the game, ultimately costing Nagelsmann his job.

The game against Leverkusen was just one of two Bundesliga debuts for Lücklund in which Müller did not score, the other coming in a 2-3 loss to Gladbach in which he was substituted after 16 minutes due to Upamecano's sending off. In five other appearances as a starter in the second half of the 2022-23 season, Müller scored two goals and four assists, including being involved in at least one goal in his three starts at the Allianz Arena during that period (one goal, three assists).

With talismanic youngster Jamal Musiala out of action due to an injury he sustained against Leverkusen, Muller's creativity will be key for the Bavarians. After all, he still leads all Bundesliga players in creating big chances (0.8), expected assists from open play (0.4) and assists (0.6) this season.

Muller has regularly troubled Dortmund, and with six goals and nine assists he has been involved in the most goals against Dortmund in the league for any active Bundesliga player. Unlike many of his teammates, Muller hasn't had any national team commitments in the last two weeks, so he's all well rested and has been able to spend more time getting to know his new coach.

Dortmund: Raphael Guerreiro

Left-back Rafael Guerreiro is often seen as the perfect embodiment of Borussia Dortmund. He can create breathtaking moments in attack - scoring 29 goals and dishing out 33 assists in 153 Bundesliga games - but the Portugal international can also be sluggish in defense. Lately, just like the rest of the squad, Guerreiro has been showing his best form in the Bundesliga.

Guerrero has been directly involved in nine goals in the second half of the Bundesliga this season (two goals and seven assists in five matches), which is the best in the league, as is the 3.2 chances he has created per 90 minutes during that period.No other player in Europe's top five leagues has as many assists as the Borussia Dortmund star (seven) so far in 2023.

In the last two league games, Terzić moved Guerreiro from his original left-back position to midfield and it paid off for Dortmund, with the Portuguese scoring and assisting in each game (two goals, three assists). No player in the Bundesliga has been involved in as many attacking sequences as Guerreiro (19) in the last two matchdays, and his attacking prowess has become even more important after Julian Brandt's absence due to injury.

This isn't the first time Guerrero has been placed in a central midfield position for Dortmund, as he did so in his first season with the club in 2016-17. Dortmund's coach at the time? You guessed it: Tuchel.

Bayern vs Borussia Dortmund Predictions

The Opta supercomputer makes Bayern Munich the favorites on Saturday, with Thomas Tuchel having a 66.8% chance of victory in his first game in charge of the club. Although Borussia Dortmund have been excellent in 2023, they only have a 13.9% chance of winning and the supercomputer believes Bayern's impressive home form will be the deciding factor.

One thing is certain: the outcome of this match will have a huge impact on the Bundesliga title race.

Despite currently sitting second in the Bundesliga table, the Opta supercomputer still gives Bayern Munich a 75.4% chance of winning their 11th consecutive German top flight title. If Borussia Dortmund win this game, their 23.4% chances will improve dramatically, jumping to 54%, higher than Bayern's 46%. If Bayern beat Borussia Dortmund at home again, it looks as though they'll lose the title and their chances will improve from 75.4% to 89%.