Leverkusen vs Bayern Munich

Leverkusen vs Bayern Munich Stats: Quick Hits

• Bayern Munich are rated as the most likely team to win this match, with Opta Supercomputer's pre-match simulation having a success rate of 39.71 TP3T compared to Leverkusen's 33.31 TP3T.
• Leverkusen are currently on a club-record 30-game unbeaten streak and are just two games away from equalling the all-time German professional club record.
• Harry Kane is the top scorer in the Bundesliga with 24 goals and needs just six more to equal the record for a player's first season in the German top flight.

Match Preview

It was, no doubt, a weekend of clashes across Europe as Leverkusen looked to extend their lead at the top of the Bundesliga table to five points with a win over second-placed Bayern Munich. Of course, that's easier said than done against the German club soccer giants who have won 11 consecutive Bundesliga titles.

But this Leverkusen side seem unlike any Bayern have faced in the last 11 years, and since arriving at the club as manager in October 2022, Javi Alonso has turned them into genuine title contenders.

Leverkusen are chasing their first Bundesliga title and are aiming to become the 13th different club to win the competition since the start of the 1963-64 season. They have come close before, finishing second in five different seasons, but this could be their best chance yet.

Leverkusen have conceded the fewest goals - their 14 goals after 20 games equaled the club record set in the 1989-90 season - and have kept a league-high 10 clean sheets, trailing only Bayern (52) in goals scored. They trail only Bayern (59) in goals scored (52). Four of their goals in high-intensity pressing matches have come after high turnovers, and Alonso's side have had a league-high 42 shots on goal in such circumstances - 12 more than Bayern.

Bayern are the giants of German soccer, winning a record 32 Bundesliga titles and the third most UEFA Europa League/Champions League titles (6). No team other than Bayern has lifted the Bundesliga trophy since the 2011-12 season, when Jürgen Klopp helped Borussia Dortmund to the title. Thomas Tuchel won the Bundesliga for the first time since taking charge of the club last season, adding to the two Ligue 1 titles he won with Paris Saint-Germain in 2019 and 2020.

Leverkusen and Bayern Munich have both had an easy time of it in Germany's top flight this season, with both clubs considered to be the most "slow and complicated" in the Bundesliga (below). Only two clubs have averaged 60% or more in possession in the Champions League this season - Leverkusen lead the way at 62.6%, followed by Bayern at 61.6%.

Leverkusen vs Bayern Munich Head-to-Head

It's not shocking to learn that Bayern Munich has lost more games against Leverkusen than any other team in history (52), while Leverkusen has averaged fewer points against Bayern than any other opponent (0.84 - 3 points based on wins).

However, their recent record against Bayern is a little better. They are unbeaten in their last two meetings with the record-breaking champions, winning 2-1 at home last season and drawing 2-2 in Munich earlier this season. The last time they went three games unbeaten against Bayern Munich in the league was between 2009 and 2010.

Leverkusen came from behind twice in the 2-2 draw with Leverkusen on Sept. 15 - the first time when Grimaldo scored after Harry Kane helped Bayern take the lead, and the other time in injury time when Bayern thought they had sealed all three points with Leon Goretzka's 86th-minute goal. It remains the only game this season in which Bayern Munich have dropped points from a winning position in the league. Alonso's side were also top of the table in that game, one of four times in Bundesliga history that they have faced the second-placed team as league leaders - none of which they have won (D2 L2). This weekend will be the fifth time.

Alonso played 117 games for Bayern as a player between 2014 and 2017. As a coach, he is unbeaten in his first two Bundesliga games against them (W1 D1); the last manager to go unbeaten in his first three league games against Bayern was Julian Nagelsmann, who played for Hoffenheim between 2016 and 2017.

Bayern Munich have lost only one of their last eight Bundesliga meetings, and that came on March 19, 2023 in a 2-1 match at the BayArena. Their two goals that day also came from Palacios' second-half penalty when Joshua Kimmich helped Bayern take the lead in the 22nd minute.

Recent Tables

Leverkusen are enjoying their best start to the season and are in excellent form. After their midweek German Cup win over Stuttgart, they are unbeaten in 30 consecutive matches in all competitions, which is not only a club record, but also two matches away from breaking the all-time record for a German professional club.

That record is currently held by Bayern Munich, who went 32 games unbeaten from December 2019 to September 2020, so this weekend gives them the chance to keep that record going even longer.

Leverkusen's 16 wins and four draws this season means they are the fourth team in Bundesliga history to go 20 games unbeaten in a season, behind Bayern in 1988-89, Bayern in 2009-10 and Bayern in 2013-14. Bayern hold the record for the longest unbeaten start to a Bundesliga season, not losing until the 29th game of the 2013-14 season.

Alonso's men need just five more wins in their final 14 Bundesliga matches to equal their record of 21 victories set in the 1996-97, 1999-00 and 2001-02 seasons - all of which saw them finish in second place.

Bayern's last loss was on January 21st, a 1-0 home loss to Werder Bremen. Since then, they have recovered well, winning their last three games, all in the Bundesliga, against Union Berlin, Augsburg and Borussia Mönchengladbach, who are currently in the bottom half of the table.

Their 50 points from 20 games is more than they have amassed at the same stage in any of the last five seasons, and seven more than they had at this point last season (43). The last time they earned 50 points in their first 20 games was in the 2017-18 season.

major player

Bayer Leverkusen:Florian Würtz

Incredibly, Bayer Leverkusen's Florian Wiltz is only 20 years old and he is having a brilliant season. Now just three appearances away from his 100th in the Bundesliga, Wiltz will become the sixth player to reach 100 Bundesliga games before his 21st birthday - despite missing nearly a year between March 2022 and January 2023 with an ACL injury. With three months to go until he turns 21, Wiltz is already 16th in Bundesliga history for most minutes played before turning 21, and looks set to break into the top five before his birthday (he only needs to play 548 more minutes to do so).

Wiltz leads Leroy Sane (43) in Bundesliga chances created on offense (47), and only the Bayern winger (7.0) has started the season with more expected assists (xA) than Wiltz (6.2) in Germany's top flight. In all competitions during the 2023-24 season, he has made 28 appearances, scored 23 goals and assisted 15 times, more than any other Bundesliga player.

While Wiltz isn't the only one who has been a creative force in this team - teammate Grimaldo has more league goals (7) and assists (9) than he has had this season - the youngster's recent form has helped to soften the blow of losing last month's top scorer Victor Boniface to injury as a blow.

Bayern Munich:Harry Kane.

One of the Premier League's all-time top scorers, there is no doubt that Kane was able to transfer his goal-scoring prowess to Germany's top flight following his summer move from Tottenham to Bayern. But, if anything, his goal-scoring feats have arguably exceeded expectations in his first season at the club.

With no player scoring more than 14 goals in the Bundesliga last season and only three players in double figures (Serge Gnabry - 14, Jamal Musiala - 12, Eric Maxim Choupo-Moting - 10), Bayern need to find a goal scorer. The England captain did.

In the first 20 matchdays of the Bundesliga season, he scored 24 league goals, a number only Robert Lewandowski (at Bayern in the 2020-21 season) was able to replicate. He is now just six goals away from equalling the Bundesliga goalscoring record in a player's first season (Uwe Sieler - 30 goals in 1963-64), and needs to score 17 goals in the remaining 14 matchdays of the season in order to equal Lewandowski's all-time record of 41 goals in the 2020-21 season.

With 28 goals in all competitions this season, he is just two short of scoring 30 goals in a single season for the sixth time, and needs 13 more competitive goals between now and the end of the 2023-24 season to equal his all-time best of 41 goals at Tottenham Hotspur in the 2017-18 season.

Opta Strength Ranking

The Opta Power Ranking is a global team ranking system that assigns power scores to over 13,500 domestic soccer teams on a scale of 0 to 100, where 0 is the world's worst ranked team and 100 is the world's best team.

Ahead of this weekend's kickoff at BayArena, here are the Opta power rankings for both teams.

Leverkusen vs Bayern Munich Predictions

The Opta supercomputer played the game 10,000 times prior to kickoff, with the most common outcome being a crucial road victory for Bayern Munich. In the pre-match simulation, Bayern won 39.7% of that time and Bayer Leverkusen won 33.3%, with the two sides sharing a point in the 27% simulation.

If Bayern win this game, then they will overtake Leverkusen at the top of the Bundesliga table by one point. If this happens, the Opta supercomputer puts the probability of Bayern winning the title at 73%, higher than their current prediction of 53.3%.

In a perfect demonstration of the importance of the game in the title race, the Opta supercomputer believes Bayer Leverkusen's victory on Saturday night will improve their chances of securing their first Bundesliga title from the current forecast of 46.6% to 66%.

A draw would not have been a terrible result for either side as their chances of winning the title remained virtually unchanged from the pre-match figures, but Leverkusen hold a slender one-point lead with 13 matchdays remaining, leaving little room for error against Bayern, who have won 11 consecutive Bundesliga titles.

In three of Leverkusen's five previous second-place finishes in the Bundesliga, they were recognized as runners-up to Bayern Munich (1996-97, 1998-99, and 1999-00); a defeat in this match could make history repeat itself again.