Barcelona vs Inter Milan Predictions

Barcelona vs Inter Milan Stats: Key Insights

• Opta supercomputerRate Barcelona as favorites to beat Inter Milan in the first round of this match, with a win probability of 55.21 TP3T.
• Barcelona are unbeaten in six Champions League matches at home against Inter Milan. Their five home wins against Inter Milan are tied for the most wins against their opponents in Champions League/Europa League history (also five against AC Milan).
• Only Ellyn Harland (36) and Luis Suarez (28) have scored more goals in their first 25 Champions League games than Rafinha (26).

As we prepare for the Champions League semi-finals, only two of the four clubs involved have the pedigree to win on this stage.

Barcelona have won the European title five times but have yet to reach those heights in the post-Messi era, while Inter Milan have dominated the continent three times, most recently under José Mourinho in 2009-10.

Having beaten their German rivals in the quarter-finals, Barcelona beat Borussia Dortmund and Inter Milan in two tense encounters with Bayern Munich, they will be vying for a place in this season's competition.

Barcelona have tasted the trophy twice this season, winning the Spanish Super Cup and the Copa del Rey, and now have a sweep of titles on their agenda.

Jules Conde was the extra-time hero in Saturday's Copa del Rey final win over arch-rivals Real Madrid as Hansie Fricke's side moved four points clear of Los Blancos in La Liga in what is shaping up to be a very memorable season for the Blues.

Since the start of the year, Barcelona have lost just one of their 28 matches (22 wins and five draws, excluding extra time), with that defeat coming against Borussia Dortmund in the second leg of the quarter-finals, where they eased off after winning the first leg 4-0.

Overall, they have scored 83 goals out of 67.0 expected goals (xG) since the beginning of 2025 - at the time of writing, no team in Europe's top five leagues has scored as many.

Their hopes of winning the Champions League appeared to take a huge blow when Robert Lewandowski, who has scored 11 goals in the competition this season, suffered a hamstring injury which will cause him to miss both games against Inter Milan.

But Ferran Torres was outstanding against Real Madrid on Saturday, scoring the crucial equalizing goal that forced extra time. He could play alongside Lamine Yamal and Rafinha, two of the star players of the Champions League in the 2024-25 season.

Yamal and Rafinha have combined for more goals than any other duo in the Champions League this season (5 - 2 assists for Yamal, 3 assists for Rafinha) and have created the most chances for each other out of all their teammates (16 - 8 each).

Rafinha has been involved in a total of 51 goals (30 goals, 21 assists) in all competitions this season, second only to Liverpool's Mohamed Salah (33 goals, 23 assists) in Europe's top five leagues, while Yamal has been involved in 34 goals (14 goals, 20 assists).

If any team is capable of dealing with Lewandowski's absence, it's Barcelona, who are averaging 3.1 goals per game in the Champions League under Frick.

The only club managerial duo in better shape in the history of this tournament? That would be Frick's Bayern (3.2), who won the Triple Crown in the 2019-20 season.

However, Frick's star-studded offense will be facing an Inter Milan team that has kept eight clean sheets in the Champions League this season.

Another goal is for them to equal the record for most shutouts by an Italian team in a single tournament, a record shared by Milan in 2004-05 and Juventus in 2016-17.

Since arriving at Inter in 2021, Simone Inzaghi has built a reputation as a knockout stage specialist, winning the Coppa Italia twice, the Supercoppa Italiana three times and leading them to the 2023 Champions League final.

He will oversee his 50th Champions League game here, becoming the seventh Italian coach to reach that milestone; the most of any nation (currently tied with Spain). His 26 victories are already the most by an Italian manager in his first 50 Champions League matches (ahead of Marcello Lippi's 25).

Inzaghi has once again shown his game management skills on the big stage this season. Inter Milan spent just 10 minutes and 54 seconds in a losing position in the Champions League in the 2024-25 season, the shortest total of any team.

They did fall behind in the second leg of their quarter-final clash against Bayern, but goals from Lautaro Martinez and Benjamin Pavard in the space of nine minutes gave them a 2-1 lead on the night and 4-2 on aggregate.

They showed the ability to bend but not break in that game - reminiscent of Mourinho's 2009-10 edition. Inter Milan faced 40 shots in their two meetings with Bayern, but averaged just 0.09 xG per shot.

But it's not all about defensive fortitude for Inter, with Nicolo Barella capable of launching devastating counter-attacks from midfield. He has averaged 7.1 progressive passes per 90 minutes in the Champions League this season, the most of any player who has played at least 500 minutes in the competition.

Of all of Barrera's passes, 121 TP3T were progressive (completing passes in the attacking two-thirds of the pitch to get the ball at least as close to the goal 251 TP3T), the highest percentage of any midfielder in the session.

The Blue and Blacks have had their ups and downs in the domestic market in recent weeks, going from a Coppa Italia exit to Milan and falling three points behind Napoli in the Serie A title race. But if anyone can frustrate Barcelona, it could be the Blue and Blacks.

Barcelona vs Inter Milan head-to-head

The previous memorable Europa League/Champions League knockout stage meeting between these two giants took place at the same stage of the 2009-10 season.

On that occasion, Mourinho's Inter Milan knocked out Pep Guardiola's Barcelona - then defending champions - 3-2 on aggregate with a 3-1 away win at the San Siro, then beat the Blues 1-0 at the Camp Nou.

Although Inter Milan won the biggest meeting between the two teams, they have met 16 times before in Europe, with Barcelona winning 8 of those games (5 draws and 3 losses).

However, the Blue and Blacks are unbeaten in their last two games against the Catalan giants, drawing 3-3 at the San Siro and winning 1-0 in the Champions League group stage in the 2022-23 season. Barcelona fell at the first hurdle that season, while Inter reached the final.

However, Barcelona are unbeaten in six Champions League home games against Inter Milan (five wins and one draw).

Those five home wins are tied for the most against any opponent in the Champions League/Europa League, having also beaten AC Milan five times, while they have hosted Chelsea the most times in the Champions League (seven).

Barcelona vs Inter Milan Prediction