Liverpool vs West Ham United Predictions

Liverpool vs West Ham United stats: key insights

• Liverpool are the favorites to beat West Ham United, with the Opta supercomputer giving a probability of victory of 69.11 TP3T.
• Liverpool have already beaten West Ham United 5-1 in the EFL Cup and 5-0 in the Premier League this season. No English top-flight team has ever scored 5+ goals against another three times in the same season.
• Mohamed Salah has not scored or assisted in his last four games for Liverpool in all competitions, his longest run without a goal for the club since March 2021 (also four).

Arne Slot's first season at Liverpool looked destined to end with a Premier League winners' medal, but the Dutchman has not been happy with recent performances.

Losing on penalties to Paris Saint-Germain in the Champions League was a reality check, but their loss to Newcastle United in the EFL Cup final was a real low point.

After weeks of talk that Trent Alexander-Arnold would be leaving his boyhood club for Real Madrid, they also suffered their second league defeat under Slaughter's stewardship last week, losing 2-3 to Fulham at Craven Farm.

The Reds welcomed West Ham United to Anfield this week, with Slotter doing everything in his power to prevent their winning run from ending in tame fashion.

Liverpool started the weekend buoyed by the news that influential Mohamed Salah had signed a new contract with the club and will remain at Anfield beyond the end of the season.

Much of Liverpool's success in the 2024-25 season can be attributed to Salah's individual talent, and it's no surprise to see their slump coincide with the Egyptian's poor form.

Salah has undoubtedly already won the Premier League Player of the Season award, having been involved in 44 goals (27 goals and 17 assists) in 2024-25 - tied for the most in a 38-game season, alongside Thierry Henry in 2002-03 and Erling Harland in 2022-23 .

With seven games remaining, it is almost certain that he will surpass the single-season record of 47 held jointly by Andy Cole (Newcastle United, 1993-94) and Alan Shearer (Blackburn Rovers, 1994-95).

But since scoring two penalties in a 3-1 win over Southampton on March 8 to tie the 38-game mark, Salah has not scored or assisted in four games in all competitions.

This is his longest run without a goal for the club since March 2021 (also 4 times). It wasn't until March 2019 that he went five appearances without a goal or assist for the Reds.

Salah's underlying metrics have also been a concern for Liverpool of late. In Liverpool's last four games, he has averaged 1.39 shots, 0.46 shots on target and 0.25 expected goals (xG) per 90 minutes, after having 3.62 shots, 1.81 shots on target and 0.72 xG per game previously this season.

Salah hasn't always been there for his teammates, either, as he's averaged just 0.93 chances and 0.09 expected assists (xA) in his last four games, after averaging 2.2 chances and 0.25 xA before this season.

Alexander-Arnold, like Joe Gomez, is unlikely to return for another couple of weeks and his absence could hurt Salah. Curtis Jones started at right-back for Liverpool last week before moving into midfield, but he only completed three passes against the Egyptian.

Conor Bradley surpassed that number (4 minutes) in just 23 minutes off the bench, and he could make his debut here.

If Salah continues to miss out, Liverpool will be hoping Luis Diaz can step up. Dias has scored (once) or assisted (three times) in each of his last four Premier League games, and those four involvements in goals match his stats from his previous 17 games.

Meanwhile, West Ham United drew 2-2 with Bournemouth at the London Stadium last week.

Head coach Graham Potter was backed to bring a more aggressive style than that implemented by predecessors David Moyes and Julen Lopetegui, but so far he has failed to do so.

West Ham's average possession in Potter's 12 league games in charge (48.91 TP3T) is slightly higher than Lopetegui's 22 league games in charge (46.41 TP3T), but they have contributed little in terms of extra time on the ball.

Potter's West Ham United averaged fewer goals (1 to 1.18), xG (0.94 to 1.39), shots (9.5 to 14.5) and shots on target (2.67 to 4.27) per Premier League game than Lopetegui's Hammers.

In away games, only Everton (11), Southampton (12) and Leicester City (14) have scored fewer than the Hammers' 15 goals in the Premier League this season.

While injuries to Michail Antonio and Crisencio Somerville have limited Porter's offensive options, other players need to step up.

Mohamed Koudous was recalled last week but is currently enduring his longest Premier League goal drought (13 games), while Brighton loanee Evan Ferguson has gone 14 games without a goal in the Champions League, six of which have come to West Ham United.

They could be galvanized into action by Jarrod Bowen, who has an excellent record against Liverpool. He has been directly involved in six of West Ham United's last seven goals against Liverpool in all competitions (three goals, three assists).

Since the start of last season, no player has scored more goals (three, equal to Alexander Issac) or been involved in more goals (four, equal to Issac and Dominic Solanke) than Bowen against Manchester United.

Liverpool vs West Ham United Head-to-Head

The Hammers have not been happy at Anfield of late, winning just one of their last 57 matches at Anfield in all competitions. Liverpool have won 42 games (14 draws), including the last 9 in a row.

Furthermore, since the 2015-16 double over Liverpool, West Ham United have won just one of their last 17 Premier League matches against the Reds (3 draws and 13 defeats), a 3-2 win at home in November 2021.

Liverpool, who have already beaten West Ham United 5-1 in the EFL Cup and 5-0 in the Premier League this season, will create a piece of history on Sunday.

No English top-flight team has scored five or more goals against another team three times in the same season.

Liverpool vs West Ham United Predictions

The Opta supercomputer makes Liverpool the favorite to win this game with a probability of 69.1%.

In our 10,000 pre-match simulations, West Ham United won only 13.81 TP3T of scenarios and 17.11 TP3T of ending levels.

The supercomputer now puts Liverpool's chances of winning the title at 99.0%, while Arsenal have just a 1.0% chance of toppling the Reds' 11-point lead at the top of the table.

West Ham United's most likely final position is 16th (28.41 TP3T), but Wolves' strong form does mean they have a 19.51 TP3T chance of slipping to 17th.