Arsenal vs Brentford Predictions

Arsenal vs Brentford stats: key insights

• Opta supercomputershows Arsenal's chances of winning Saturday's game against Brentford are 56.4%.
• Brentford won their last two away London derbies in the Premier League, having lost seven in a row on the road before that.
• Arsenal have lost just one of their last 15 Premier League London derbies (W12 D2), losing 1-0 to West Ham United in February. They have scored at least five goals in five of those 15 matches.

Arsenal's Champions League win over Real Madrid on Tuesday night will always be remembered as Declan Rice's two brilliant direct free kicks at the Emirates Stadium left Arsenal fans in the lurch and made the Gunners favorites to reach the semifinals.

It is for this reason that Saturday's game against Brentford now looks even more dangerous. Predictably, Mikel Arteta will rotate his squad with a view to playing in the second leg at the Santiago Bernabeu next Wednesday; the only question is to what extent he will do so.

Arsenal's three-goal lead in the game was overwhelming, but Real Madrid's storied history of unlikely reversals will surely make Arteta wary of fouling into complacency, so you'd think the likes of Rice, Bukayo Saka and Yulian Thimble, all of whom took slight knocks in midweek, wouldn't be taking any chances.

How important these really are to anyone other than Brentford is debatable. Arsenal are in the perfect position to prioritize the Champions League as they will almost certainly end the season in second place.

Opta supercomputerThe Gunners are thought to have only an 1% chance of lifting the Premier League title in May, while the model predicts a 0.2% chance of them qualifying for the Champions League.It's safe to say the hosts don't have a great deal at stake here, and are simply looking to avoid inflicting further injuries on an already depleted squad.

Meanwhile, Brentford are perfectly safe in mid-table and have not been any threat of relegation for a long time, but there is still a little too much ground to make up to threaten the teams vying for a place in Europe next season.

Nonetheless, the team that finishes higher in the table wins the prize money and there is still a chance that Brentford could end the season in the top half of the table.

They will be hard pressed to find a better opportunity to get their first win at the Emirates. In fact, they have only won away from home against Arsenal once in their history and that victory was at Highbury in 1938.

Their recent performances against Arsenal have not been much stronger overall. They scored a memorable win over the Gunners in their first Premier League game in August 2021, but have failed to beat them since, drawing once and losing five times, with one of those defeats coming in the reverse fixture earlier in the year.

Brentford have shown some real form in away games recently - although they lost their last away game against Newcastle, they had previously won five such games in a row. If the Premier League is going to be cold this weekend, don't be surprised to see it happen here.

Arsenal vs Brentford Head-to-Head

Arsenal have only lost at home to Brentford once in their entire history, a 2-0 loss in April 1938 at Highbury.

However, Brentford have beaten the Gunners more recently than that, winning 2-0 in August 2021, their first game in the Premier League. Since then, they have avoided defeat just once in this competition, losing five times.

In the other game on New Year's Day, Brentford took the lead after 13 minutes through Brian Mbemo before goals from Gabriel Jesus, Mikel Merino and Gabriel Martinelli earned the Gunners a comfortable victory.

Arsenal vs Brentford Predictions

While Arsenal players may turn their attention to Wednesday's game against Madrid, they remain the clear favorites here.

The Gunners have scored 56.4% in the Opta supercomputer simulation. Brentford are 20.7% more likely to win, while the threat of a draw is 22.9%.

Arsenal vs Brentford Predicted Lineups