Newcastle vs Manchester United Predictions

Newcastle vs Manchester United stats: key insights

• Opta supercomputerMaking Newcastle the 55.5% favorite to win this game.
• The Magpies have won four of their last five games against Manchester United.
• All eight of Newcastle's previous wins against the Red Devils have been accompanied by a shutout.

After winning 2-0 at Old Trafford last December, Newcastle United are looking to complete their first league double over Manchester United since the 1930-31 season. The Magpies have rarely had a better chance to break another long-held record, if it wasn't as important as their famous trophy drought that ended recently.

United have lost their previous two Premier League games away to Newcastle United, with the last time they lost consecutive league games at St. James' Park being between 1969 and 1970. Their record against the league's top teams this season is also poor.

The Red Devils are winless in their eight league games against teams that were in the top five at the start of Matchday 32. They won the derby at Manchester City 2-1, scoring twice from the 88th minute, their only win against a top seven club.

Ruben Amorim's side also go into this game on the back of a 2-2 draw with Lyon in the Europa League on Thursday, having lost a morale-boosting victory to a stoppage-time equalizer from Lajan Cherki. With nothing but pride at stake in the league, it's reasonable to assume that the manager won't be taking any chances with any suspect players in this game.

Injuries have been a theme of United's season. Kopi Menu returned against Lyon but there are still six players missing. The likes of Mathis de Ligt, Amad Diallo and Lisandro Martinez are all currently missed.

Newcastle may welcome back Anthony Gordon for this game, at best as a substitute. However, Harvey Barnes has been in good form, contributing goals in each of his last three Premier League games (one goal and two assists in total). Players who won't feature here include Sven Botman and Lewis Hall, who are half of Eddie Howe's preferred back four.

Even without these key players, Newcastle have a case for keeping a clean sheet. Only Leicester City (14) and Everton (13) have scored more goals in Premier League matches this season than Manchester United (12); the Red Devils haven't scored more since the 1989-90 season (16 times).

Another clean sheet would be a very positive omen for the hosts, who have won all eight of their previous victories against United in all competitions. The last time they won when conceding a goal was over 20 years ago, a 4-3 victory in September 2001 partly due to a last-minute red card for Roy Keane.

One of Newcastle's key players in this game could be Jacob Murphy, who has assisted Alexander Issac seven times in the Premier League this season. Since the 2009-10 season, there have only been two occasions when a player has assisted a specific teammate multiple times in a season: Harry Kane for Son in the 2020-21 season (nine times), and then Kevin De Bruyne assisted Erlin Harland for eight goals in the 2022-23 season.

Murphy, who scored twice in Newcastle's 3-0 win over Leicester City on Monday, has been directly involved in 19 goals, scoring eight and assisting 11 in 33 appearances in all competitions this season. He is hoping to reach the age of 20 for the first time in his career at a Premier League club.

Despite the Magpies' sharp wingers, few players have matched the creative feats of Manchester United captain Bruno Fernandes, who could be an integral part of the visitors' hopes. The Portuguese midfielder created 75 chances in the Premier League in 2024-25, more than any other player, and this is the fifth season he has reached that benchmark. Since 2003-04, De Bruyne is the only player to have more seasons with 75+ chances (7).

Newcastle have won 11 of their previous 15 league games. A win here would make them the fourth team to double up on United in the Premier League this season, the first since 1957-58 to do so in a single top-flight match.

The Magpies also won five of their six home games against clubs in the bottom half of the Premier League table to start the weekend. With Amorim's points-per-game average the third-highest among United bosses with at least 20 Premier League games, it's no surprise that his side lost again.

Meanwhile, a win for Newcastle would go a long way to boosting their hopes of qualifying for the Champions League. They have one game against the teams around them before reaching MD 32, which was confirmed this week to be enough after England secured an extra spot in Europe's top club competition.

Newcastle vs Man Utd Head-to-Head

While this head-to-head was once very much in United's favor, the balance of power in the relationship has tipped in favor of the northeast in recent times.

Newcastle have won four of their last five meetings with United in all competitions (losing one), as many as in their previous 41 meetings (9 draws, 28 losses).

At St James' Park in particular, the Magpies have lost just one of the last five meetings - 4-1 in December 2020 - and have won three in that time.

Newcastle won another game at Old Trafford in late December in the final game of 2024, winning 2-0 thanks to first-half goals from Isaac and Joe Linton.

Newcastle vs Manchester United Predictions

Newcastle are the favorites to win this match, with 55.5% of the Opta supercomputer's 10,000 simulations ending in a win for the home team.

The forecast suggests that United have roughly as much chance of gaining 3 points as 1, as a draw occurs at 22.3% in the simulated betting, while an away team win occurs at 22.2% in the simulated betting.