Everton vs Chelsea Prediction

Everton vs Chelsea stats: key insights

• Opta supercomputerList Chelsea as favorites with a 54.01 TP3T chance of them winning, compared to Everton's 23.51 TP3T.
• The Toffees have won five of their last six home Premier League games against Chelsea.
• Only Liverpool have more shutouts than Everton in the top flight this season.

Chelsea face a tough test of their title credentials when they visit Everton on Sunday.

The Blues have won just one of their last six visits to Goodison Park, while Everton's home form has improved markedly this season after a turbulent start.

Sean Dyche's side lost their first two home games of the season, conceding three goals in both, but have since gone on a five-game unbeaten run at home (W2 D3), keeping three clean sheets and conceding just two goals.

While the victories haven't been entirely fluent, Everton are a difficult team to break down and have already drawn four goalless draws this season, more than any other team. That's already the most they've had in a single season since 2015-16 (also four), and they haven't had more since 2008-09 (five).

Furthermore, only rivals Liverpool (7) have more shutouts this season than Everton (6), although the Toffees have also failed to score in the most varied games (8).

But that stoic resistance will be put to the test against high-flying Chelsea, who have scored more goals (51), won more matches (15) and scored more points (49) than any other team in the top flight since the beginning of May.

In stark contrast to Everton's struggles in front of goal, no team has scored more goals this season than Enzo Maresca's side (15) and the Blues have scored more goals (37) than any other side. They also added five in the midweek conference tournament, taking their tally to 26 goals in that tournament after just six games.

Chelsea have won five consecutive Premier League matches following last weekend's win over Brentford. They have not won more games in a row (six) since November 2019 under Lampard.

Goodison is a tough place to play right now, but Chelsea have the most away wins (6), away points (19) and away goals (23) in the top flight this season. Their 23 away goals are third in the Premier League after eight away games in a single season, behind Liverpool (26) in 2021-22 and Manchester City (25) in 2011-12.

Regardless of any other results this weekend, Chelsea will finish in the top two over Christmas. It will be the first time they have done so since the 2016-17 season, when they finished top at that stage. The Blues have won the title on Christmas Day five times previously, but have never won the league on December 25 (1998-99, 2002-03, 2006-07, 2008-09).

As we all know, Cole Palmer has been Chelsea's main threat. With 57 shots and 44 chances, he is the only player to have been involved in over 100 shots in the Premier League this season.

Palmer could be playing in his 50th Premier League game for Chelsea this weekend - he has scored 33 goals and dished out 17 assists, and is already the fourth player to be involved in more than 50 goals in his first 50 appearances for the club (Manchester City's Ellyn Harland (62), Newcastle United's Andrew -Cole (57) and Liverpool's Mohamed Salah (52).

Everton are still without James Garner and Tim Iroegbunan for this game, while Dwight McNeil missed the last game against Arsenal with a knee injury. Broa missed the game against his parent club and Youssef Chermeti is not expected to play at the moment.

Mark Cucurelia was suspended for Chelsea, as was Mykhailo Mudrick after Chelsea were also provisionally suspended by the FA for failing a drugs test - the Ukrainian winger strongly denied any wrongdoing. Pedro Neto is back from suspension but Reece James and Wesley Fofana are injured, while it remains to be seen whether Benoit Badiyasile, Kani Chukwuemeka and Ben Chilwell will be available.

Everton vs Chelsea Head to Head

Everton's recent record against Chelsea at home is actually pretty good, having won five of their last six games against the Blues at Goodison - one of those defeats coming in August 2022 in a 1-0 reverse.

This represents Everton's previous 17 home wins against Chelsea (D4 L8).

However, the most recent meeting between the two teams resulted in a 6-0 rout for Chelsea last April, in which Palmer scored four goals.

However, they have not beaten Everton in consecutive matches since November 2016 to August 2017 in three consecutive games.

Everton vs Chelsea Prediction

Despite Chelsea's mediocre performances at Goodison Park in recent years, they are still ranked as clear favorites for the supercomputer, with 54.0% of the 10,000 simulations conducted coming out on top.

Everton still have a reasonable chance of winning at 23.5% and drawing at 22.5%.