Aston Villa vs Manchester City Predictions

Aston Villa vs Manchester City stats: key insights

• Despite their terrible form, the Opta supercomputerStill see City as favorites to win this game at 43.7% in the simulation.
• Josko Gwadior has scored more goals than any other defender in the Premier League this season, while his four goals are the second most of any City player behind Erling Harland (13).
• Phil Foden has taken more shots without scoring this season than any other player in the Premier League (24).

Manchester City will look to get back to winning ways when they visit Aston Villa in the Premier League on Saturday.

Manchester City suffered a 2-1 defeat at home to arch-rivals Manchester United last weekend, with Bruno Fernandes' penalty and a 90th-minute winner from Amad Diallo condemning Pep Guardiola's side to another loss.

Manchester City's chances of winning a fifth successive Premier League title look remote, already nine points behind leaders Liverpool, who have played one more game than Arne Slaughter's side.

The Manchester derby defeat means City have lost five of their last seven Premier League games, equaling their previous 67 combined. The last time they lost more in a single league game was in the 2020-21 season (6).

Their cup form hasn't been much better, first losing to Tottenham Hotspur in the EFL Cup and also failing to win in their last three Champions League matches.

City have lost eight of their last 11 matches in all competitions, the same number of defeats as in their previous 106 matches.

Even when they have been ahead, City have not been as certain to win, or even lose, as they have been during their dominant period since Pep Guardiola arrived at the Etihad Stadium in 2016.

United's loss was the second time in three matches that they have led at half-time but ultimately lost, having lost just twice in their previous 102 such matches.

This weekend could also be difficult, against a Villa side who, despite their own poor form, are strong at home. Villa may have lost four of their last seven Premier League games, but they are unbeaten in their last seven games at Villa Park (four wins and three draws).

Villa have also impressed at home during their return to the Champions League, picking up seven points from three games, including against Bayern Munich in October, when Jhon Durán scored a last-minute winner to help his side win 1-0.

They've also been somewhat unlucky in the Premier League so far, conceding 25 goals this season against an expected goal difference of 19.5, which is five goals more than expected (5.5). Only Wolves (40 goals conceded, 27.6 xGA) have a worse record this season (-12.4).

Their mixed form has meant they sit seventh in the home stand, although they are only three points behind fourth-placed Nottingham Forest.

In injury news, Leon Bailey and Tyrone Mings could both be fit to start for Unai Emery's side, although Jacob Ramsey is not expected to return until the New Year.

City's alarming dip in form has largely coincided with Ballon d'Or winner Rodney's ACL injury, which will keep him out until next season.

Pep Guardiola will also miss Saturday's game, but Manuel Akanji could feature, as will Rico Lewis, who received a one-match ban after picking up a red card against Crystal Palace earlier this month.

Aston Villa vs Manchester City Head to Head

Villa won this game 1-0 last season, but haven't won consecutive home games against City since April 1993.

Only against Newcastle United did City win more Premier League games (31) and score more Premier League goals (102) than they did against Villa (30 wins, 98 goals).

The last time the two sides met was in April when a hat-trick from Foden and a goal from Rodney helped City to a comfortable 4-1 win.

Aston Villa vs Manchester City Predictions

Many thought they were seeing the end of Pep Guardiola's City dynasty, but they are still favored by the Opta supercomputer for the clash with Villa, with a 43.7% prediction rate topping 10,000 pre-match simulations.

Villa may fancy their chances of handing City another defeat, and they have 30.5% to do so. Meanwhile, a draw occurs in 25.8% of simulation.

Somewhat unbelievably, City are now fourth favorites to win the title, just 1.81 TP3T behind title favorites Liverpool (82.31 TP3T), Arsenal (10.11 TP3T) and Chelsea (5.81 TP3T).

A top four finish is likely to remain Villa's main target, although their hopes of repeating last season's heroics of securing a Champions League spot are only 4.0%, with sixth place their most likely finish.