Nottingham Forest vs Aston Villa Predictions

Nottingham Forest vs Aston Villa stats: key insights

• Opta supercomputerIt's almost impossible to tell the two apart, making Nottingham Forest the favorites by a slim margin of 37.3%.
• Forest have lost their last six Premier League games when they are in the top five, scoring just two goals and conceding 20 in those six defeats.
• Aston Villa have lost their last three away games, their longest losing streak since May-August 2022 when they lost four in a row.

Two former Europa League winners will meet at the City Ground on Saturday as they both look to secure their place in the continent's top competition next season.

It's almost a cliché for Aston Villa that Unai Emery's side have reached the Champions League so comfortably this season. Their 3-2 win over RB Leipzig on Tuesday left them fifth in the league stage table with two rounds of the league remaining, in a favorable position for a top-eight finish and an automatic berth in the round of 16.

Nottingham Forest are hoping to get back to where they belong next season after a sensational start to the campaign. The Tricky Trees secured another famous victory last weekend when they beat Manchester United 3-2 at Old Trafford for the first time in 30 years.

That win lifted them to fifth place, just two points behind defending champions Manchester City in fourth, making European qualification very likely.

Having said that, Forest have lost their last six Premier League matches to the top five and in those six defeats, from 1995 to 2024, they have scored just two goals and conceded 20.

It will be Forest's 5,000th game in the top four divisions of English soccer, making them the 12th team in the history of the English Football League to reach this milestone.

They have the third best away record in the Premier League this season, but they are also strong at home. Forest have won three of their last four Premier League home games (L1), as many as their previous 17 (W3 D4 L10). They have also kept three clean sheets in their last four games, as many as they had in their previous 30 games at the City Ground.

It doesn't bode well for Aston Villa, who have lost their last three away games - their longest losing streak since May-August 2022 when they lost four in a row. They're not paltry losses either, with all three coming by a goal difference of 2+ - the last time Villa lost more consecutive league games away from home by such a wide margin was in September 1968, when they were a second-tier team (5 games).

Morgan Gibbs-White scored and assisted in Forest's victory at Old Trafford, his fifth Premier League game for Forest, tying him with Ian Vaughan for the most goals and assists of any player.

However, Chris Wood has been a mainstay of Nuno Espirito Santo's side and is one of only four players to have scored 10+ goals in the Premier League this season - he is the first Forest player to have scored 10 Premier League goals in a season before Christmas and the first to have done so since the 2021-22 season The first Forest player to do so in a league season since Lewis Grabban in the Championship.

Speaking of in-form strikers, Duran has scored the winning goal in four of Villa's seven Premier League victories this season, as well as a goal in this week's win over Leipzig. Emery will once again be faced with the dilemma of starting the Colombian, as he did in last weekend's 1-0 win over Southampton, where he scored the winning goal, or bringing him on as a substitute, as he did in Germany.

Nottingham Forest vs Aston Villa

Nottingham Forest have won just one of their last 11 Premier League games against Aston Villa.
(D5 L5), though it was a 2-0 victory in this exact fixture last season.

Villa are winless in their last five Premier League away games against Forest, although four have ended in draws (L1). Their last such victory came in January 1995 under Brian Little (2-1).

Nottingham Forest vs Aston Villa Predictions

The game could hardly have been tighter, but Forest almost got the Opta supercomputerThe Recognition. The hosts won 37.31 TP3T in their 10,000 simulations, just ahead of Villa's 36.01 TP3T.

So that means a draw occurred for the remaining 26.7% sims, which may not be the most surprising result as the two teams are separated by just one goal in the table and are tied on 25 points (Forest +1 goal difference, Villa 0).