Southampton vs Tottenham Hotspur Predictions

Southampton vs Tottenham: Key Insights

• Opta supercomputerBack Tottenham Hotspur to get a much-needed win, with Spurs winning at a rate of 52.31 TP3T in the pre-match simulation.
• Dejan Kulusevski could make his 100th Premier League appearance in this match, his first also coming in February 2022 against Southampton. He has dished out 21 assists in the league, with only Son contributing more for Tottenham (24) since his debut.
• Southampton have scored in each of their last 15 Premier League games against Tottenham, the longest winning streak against their rivals in their history.

Tottenham Hotspur will travel to St. Mary's on Sunday to face struggling Premier League side Southampton in a bid to recover from a very disappointing week.

Tottenham Hotspur took a 2-0 lead at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium on Sunday and were beaten 4-3 by Chelsea, with much of the post-match discussion centering on under-fire manager Angie Postecoglou and his tactics.

Then on Thursday, Dejan Kulusevski rescued a point for Tottenham in the UEFA Cup as Spurs drew 1-1 with Rangers.

Their loss to Chelsea in the Premier League leaves Spurs in 11th place going into this weekend's game, seven points behind the top four with just one win in eight games in all competitions.

In their first 11 Premier League games this season, Tottenham averaged just 9.6 shots and 3.4 shots on goal per game. In their last four games, they have faced 18.8 shots and 6.8 shots on goal per game.

Their defensive weaknesses have seen them lose 14 of their 33 Premier League games in 2024, just one fewer than their 42 games in 2023. The last time they lost 15+ consecutive league games was in 2002 (15), 2003 (20) and 2004 (15).

However, Sunday's game could provide a way for Spurs to overcome their poor form against a team at the bottom of the league that has won just one game all season and is already eight points behind safety.

Tottenham Hotspur are unbeaten in their last 13 Premier League matches against bottom-placed teams since May 2018, when they lost 0-1 to West Bromwich Albion (10 wins and 3 draws). Spurs have scored 42 goals in that time and have scored at least three goals in each of their last eight matches this season.

Southampton have won just one of their last 28 Premier League games (6 draws, 21 losses) and their 1-0 win over Everton in November was their only shutout in their last 27 Premier League games.

Tottenham Hotspur captain Son, who scored a last-minute consolation goal against Chelsea, will welcome one of his favorite opponents this weekend.

Son has scored more goals against Southampton (10) than any other Premier League side, while he has also contributed a tie for the most assists against the Saints (five, tied with Manchester City).

Both teams' fortunes have been hampered by lengthy injury lists, with Tottenham suffering a huge blow against Chelsea as the newly fit Cristian Romero and Micky van der Ven both went down in that game and will be out for the foreseeable future.

In addition, Yves Bissouma and Rodrigo Bentancur are both suspended, while Richarlison and Guillermo Vicario are out until 2025.

Southampton boss Russell Martin could be boosted by the return of Jan Bednarek and Paul Onuachu on Sunday, although the likes of Adam Lallana and Gavin Bazunu will continue to miss out.

Southampton vs Tottenham Hotspur

Southampton have lost just one of their last six home games against Tottenham Hotspur (two wins and three draws), going down 5-2 in September 2020.

Meanwhile, Tottenham have failed to score in only one of their last 22 Premier League meetings with Southampton, a 1-0 loss in January 2020 away from home.

The last time the two sides met was in March 2023, when James Ward-Prowse's 93rd-minute penalty helped Southampton to a 3-3 draw at St. Mary's.

Southampton vs Tottenham Hotspur Predictions

The Opta supercomputer is heavily favoring Tottenham Hotspur to get the three points on Sunday, with the visitors posting a 52.3% victory in its 10,000 pre-match simulations.

Southampton are desperate for a win and they have a 25.2% time lead. Meanwhile, the probability of a draw is 22.5%.

Both teams' poor starts have left their goals of European qualification for Tottenham and survival for Southampton hanging in the balance.

Southampton are projected to finish at the bottom of the table, with relegation chances of just 3.0%, while Tottenham Hotspur are most likely to finish in seventh place, making it into the top four in a simulation of just 2.3%.