Brighton vs Crystal Palace Predictions

Brighton vs Crystal Palace by the numbers: key insights

• Opta supercomputerConsider Brighton as favorites, with their odds of winning at 50.01 TP3T compared to Crystal Palace's 25.81 TP3T.
• Brighton are one of only three teams in the Premier League to remain unbeaten at home this season.
• Crystal Palace's longest unbeaten away run in the top flight since January-March 2022 is now over.

Bragging rights are coming when Brighton & Hove Albion host Crystal Palace at the American Express Stadium on Sunday.

Although the two clubs are 46 miles apart, the clash known as the A23 or M23 derby dates back to the 1970s and neither club likes the other very much. That's a euphemism.

Brighton will be looking to protect a proud home record this season as their opponents make the journey of around 90 minutes. The Seagulls are one of three teams (W3, D4) to remain unbeaten at home in the Premier League this season, the other two being Arsenal and Brentford. They lost four of their last five home games last season.

You can usually expect goals in a Brighton game. Since the start of last season, only Brentford (38) have scored and conceded more goals in the top flight than Brighton (37), who have scored and conceded in 10 of their last 11 games.

Crystal Palace find themselves struggling at the other end of the table in 17th place, but Oliver Glasner's side have reason for optimism despite losing their last two trips to American Express. Brighton's last five games against teams ranked 17th or lower have all ended in draws.

However, if the Eagles find themselves ahead in enemy territory, they will need to do a better job of protecting the lead. Under Glassner, Crystal Palace have scored first in seven Premier League games before conceding two or more goals, including four of the six games in which they have scored first this season. Since his first game in charge on February 24, only Chelsea have done so regularly (also seven times).

After a difficult start to the season, Crystal Palace have begun to show improvement, going unbeaten in their last three away games (W1 D2), having last held a longer unbeaten away record between January and March 2022 (5). They have not won back-to-back away games in the league since April 2023

Daniel Muñoz has scored in two of his last three league games, having not scored in his first 28 matches in the competition. However, the Colombian right-back could be in for a busy day if Kaoru Tomakomai takes to the field. The Japanese winger has traveled the furthest in front of goal (1,899 meters) amongst non-central defenders in the Premier League this season. He has also completed 79 consecutive dribbles of 10 meters or more, second only to Southampton's Kyle Walker-Peters (80).

Fabian Hützler has had to deal with his injury problems with American Express this season, but Ferdi Cardiolu, Adam Webster, Adam Hinshelwood and James Milner are all close to being healthy and would add to his options if available.

Adam Walton could be in contention for a place at Crystal Palace after undergoing groin surgery in November, while summer signing Chaddy Riyadh is speeding up his recovery from a long-term knee injury.

Brighton vs Crystal Palace Head-to-Head

Brighton have won their last two Premier League matches at home to Crystal Palace. The last time they won consecutive home top-flight games against their opponents was from 1979 to 1988, when they won seven in a row.

Crystal Palace haven't fared too well against the Seagulls in recent matches, failing to win their last six league games against them (D4 L2).

It was their longest winless streak against the Gulls since a 10-game streak from 1979 to 1986.

Brighton vs Crystal Palace Predictions

Brighton is considered the clear favorite to win this race, with a probability of winning of 50.01 TP3T in 10,000 simulations conducted.

Crystal Palace may have bounced back in recent weeks, losing just one of their last six games (W1 D4), but they are only 25.8% to win, with draws occurring at 24.2%.

Brighton are currently seventh in the crowded Premier League table, but their most likely outcome is a fifth-place finish in May (15%).

Meanwhile, Crystal Palace are languishing in 17th place, but it is calculated that they have only a 4.2% chance of finishing 18th. As things stand, according to Opta's model (24.6%), they are most likely to finish in 15th place.