Manchester City vs Manchester United Predictions

Manchester City vs Manchester United by the numbers: key insights

• City may be in poor form, but Opta supercomputerRate their chances of winning at 57%.
• Ruben Amorim's Manchester United have lost their last two Premier League games.
• City have won five of their last six Premier League games against their neighbors.

A force to be reckoned with meets a moveable object at the Etihad Stadium on Sunday as, surprisingly, Manchester City host a Manchester United side still standing firm under new coach Ruben Amorim.

Their respective problems are arguably one of the most interesting Manchester derbies in years.

Manchester City losses have become the norm; Pep Guardiola's side lost 0-2 to Juventus on Wednesday for the seventh time in 10 games.

Manchester City's star-studded line-up looked tired as they tried to ease their struggles in Turin, with Dusan Vlahovic and Weston McKennie doing the damage for Juventus.

Meanwhile, Manchester United's 2-1 comeback win over Pilsen in the UEFA Cup boosted morale heading into Sunday's derby - and Rasmus Højlund was the hero for the Red Devils on Thursday.

However, they have lost their last two league games. That means they face the prospect of losing three consecutive games in a row for the first time since December 2015, when Louis van Gaal took charge, in a single season. Furthermore, new boss Amorim has never lost three games in his top-flight reign and this is his 172nd such game.

Amorim, of course, has already beaten Manchester City this season. His Sporting Portugal side won 4-1 in the Champions League in November and he was confirmed as Eric Ten Hagar's replacement shortly afterwards.

As such, a rare feat may be in his hands: only one other manager has led two different teams to beat the reigning Premier League champions in a single season. That would be Alan Pardew, who led Newcastle United and Crystal Palace to victories over Manchester City in the 2014-15 season.

What helped Amorim's chances of achieving what he did was the fact that City have been leaking a lot of goals lately.

They have conceded at least two goals in seven of their last 11 Premier League games (W4 D3 L4), as many as they had conceded in their previous 62 Premier League games.

That said, United are not without their own weaknesses at the back; 39% of the goals they've conceded in the Premier League this season have come from corner situations (7/18), which is the highest share in the division. Over the course of the calendar year, they've conceded 15 goals from corners, just three fewer than in 2021 (eight), 2022 (four) and 2023 (six) combined.

Then there was the risky approach of goalkeeper Andre Onana, who was at fault for Pilsen's goal in Thursday's UEFA Cup tie. He's made two errors that have led directly to goals this season, and only six goalkeepers in Europe's top five leagues (all competitions) have made more such mistakes.

Bruno Fernandes helped Højlund avoid the blushes of Onana with a clever free-kick against Pilsen, and the Dane, who scored the winning goal against Pilsen, has come into form under Amorim.

Having been involved in just two goals (two assists) in nine Premier League games under Ten Hagar this season, Fernandes has been involved in six goals (three goals, three assists) in the last six games since the Dutchman's departure. The Portuguese star has also been involved in five goals (two goals, two assists) in his last six games against City in all competitions, dishing out an assist in each of the last three games.

If Manchester City are to get back on track, having Erling Harland at full strength again will help. The good news is that he was excellent against Manchester United.

In four Premier League Manchester derbies, Harland has been involved in nine goals (six goals, three assists). This has been the most goals scored by a Manchester City player in a match against Manchester United.

Meanwhile, Phil Foden has scored six goals in his last four Premier League games against Manchester United. Only Sergio Aguero (eight) has scored more goals than Foden (six, equal with Harland) in City's Manchester derby.

Manchester City vs Manchester United Head-to-Head

United have lost 20 Premier League games to Manchester City - only against Arsenal (21) have they lost more in the Premier League.

The Red Devils have lost their last three Premier League games to Manchester City, conceding 13 goals in the process. The last time they lost four consecutive league games to their neighbors was from 1952 to 1955.

City have won five of their last six Premier League games against Manchester United (L1), more than their previous 13 (W4 D3 L6).

Manchester City vs Manchester United Predictions

Despite their recent failures, City are still predicted to be the top team in Manchester this weekend.

Pep Guardiola's side won 57.01 TP3T of data-driven simulations run by the Opta supercomputer, which gives United a win probability of 22.21 TP3T. the threat of a draw is 20.81 TP3T.