Chelsea vs Aston Villa Prediction

Chelsea vs Aston Villa: Key Insights

• Opta supercomputerGive Chelsea a 52% chance of winning this game.
• However, Chelsea have not won their last three Premier League meetings with Aston Villa.
• Villa have won both of their recent league games at Stamford Bridge.

Despite pre-season talk of a bloated squad and Chelsea in a state of disarray behind the scenes, Enzo Maresca has made a good start to his tenure as Blues boss.

Chelsea are third in the Premier League, ahead of Arsenal on goal difference, and have lost just two games in the Premier League this season.

On Thursday, they moved closer to advancing to the Europa League with a 2-0 win at Heidenheim, a tournament that Maresca used to give fringe players a chance while resting the likes of star player Cole Palmer.

But Chelsea have had difficulties against the "big six". They lost to Manchester City and Liverpool, while drawing with Manchester United and Arsenal.

Aston Villa are not part of the traditional 'big six' but they finished in the top four last season and drew 0-0 with European heavyweights Juventus in the Champions League on Wednesday. They were denied a last-minute winner when Morgan Rogers' goal was disallowed for a foul on the goalkeeper by Diego Carlos.

But Unai Emery's men are winless in their last four Premier League games (D2 L2). They last went five games without a win between May and August 2022, and their last in the same season was in March/April 2022 (both under Steven Gerrard). That form has seen them drop to eighth place and, despite such a crowded Premier League, they are only three points behind Chelsea ahead of Sunday's game at Stamford Bridge.

After consecutive draws, the Blues beat Leicester City 2-1 last week to finally end Steve Cooper's tenure at Leicester City.

Nicholas Jackson was heavily involved, scoring a goal and playing a part in Chelsea's winning goal as his header was parried and Enzo Fernandez headed home. Five of Jackson's seven Premier League goals this season have helped Chelsea to a 1-0 lead - only Chris Wood (six) scored his first goal in more varied matches this weekend.

Almost certainly pulling the strings behind Jackson is Palmer. No player has created more chances in the Premier League this season than the England international (28). Villa are one of only three teams that Palmer has not scored or assisted in the league since joining the Blues (two appearances), the other two being Liverpool (two) and Leicester City (one).

Chelsea have only 41% Premier League points coming from home games this season (9/22), the lowest rate of any team, so rediscovering their winning ways at Stamford Bridge is vital if Maresca are to at least qualify for the Champions League this season.

They may also need to strengthen at the back. Chelsea have conceded at least one goal in all six of their Premier League home games this season - the last time they waited longer for a home shutout was the start of the 1978-79 league season (nine games).

Villa have scored the league's highest Premier League goal total (6) and total goals scored (32%) via headers this season, including Barkley's last equalizer against Crystal Palace. As it stands, it's their highest share of goals scored from headers in a single top-flight game since the 2001-02 season (33% - 15/46).

Meanwhile, Ollie Watkins has scored in his last two Premier League away games against Chelsea, scoring the winning goal in both games. No visiting player has ever scored three winning goals at Stamford Bridge.

Chelsea vs Aston Villa Head to Head

Villa's last two Premier League away wins against Chelsea are as many as they have won in their previous 21 visits to Stamford Bridge (D4 L15).

The last time they won three straight road games against the Blues was between 1930 and 1933.

Chelsea have failed to win their last three Premier League meetings with Aston Villa (D1 L2), with the last time there was a longer winning streak against them being from February 2006 to December 2007 (5 times).

Chelsea vs Aston Villa Prediction

Chelsea are seen as favorites by Opta's supercomputer despite their recent performance against Villa. The Blues have a 52% chance of winning.

Villa have a 25.2% chance of getting 3 points, while a draw is 22.8%.