Manchester United vs Everton Prediction

Manchester United vs Everton: Key Insights

• Manchester United is Opta supercomputerfavorites as they won the data-driven simulation at 57.5%.
• Everton have won just one of their last 31 Premier League games away from home against Manchester United.
• Ruben Amorim will make his league coaching debut at Old Trafford.

Ruben Amorim's tenure at Manchester United has started at lightning speed. In fact, it took Marcus Rashford just 81 seconds to get on the end of Amad Diallo's cross at Portman Road last Sunday.

However, if United fans had been hoping for an immediate turnaround, they were disappointed. Ipswich equalized through Omari Hutchinson's shot, and if it wasn't for a couple of fine saves from Andre Onana, Amorim's first game in charge could have ended in defeat.

But a home game against another struggling Premier League side, Everton, provided Amorim with the perfect opportunity to get his first win in the top flight, and he has certainly got one under his belt.

After scoring again in the opening minute of Amorim's second game in charge, United went down 2-1 to Bordeaux/Glimt in the UEFA Cup on Thursday. However, Rasmus Højlund's second goal saw them win 3-2 at Old Trafford, so Everton's tails will be up when they come to the city.

The Toffees have lost just one of their last eight league games, but it's fair to say that their fanbase isn't happy with how things have gone this season. Sean Dyche's side have rediscovered some defensive solidity, although they have been toothless in attack.

They have failed to score in their last three games, losing 1-0 to Southampton before drawing 0-0 with West Ham United and 10-man Brentford. Everton had 27 shots on target against the Bees on Saturday but amassed just 1.2 expected goals - an average of 0.04 xG per shot.Dyche may point to the fact that he had a number of attempts on goal but the stats show that these were low quality chances.

Everton have failed to score in more different Premier League matches than any other team this season (6). On the other hand, only two teams - Liverpool (6) and Manchester United (5) - have kept more clean sheets than the Toffees (4). Everton have had three 0-0 draws this season, with the last more coming in 2015-16 (four).

Everton's last two Premier League games have ended 0-0 - only once in their league history have they drawn three consecutive games without scoring, and that was in February 1982.

Add to that the fact that no team has scored fewer goals in a Premier League game than Manchester United this season (26) and it would be wise not to expect too many goals in this game.

In fact, only Southampton (9), Crystal Palace and Everton (10) have scored fewer goals than the Red Devils (13), while only Liverpool (8) and Arsenal (12) have conceded fewer goals (13).

Manchester United's 13 goals came from an expected goal difference of 18.3. No team has performed worse than their xG (-5.3).

But this is Amorim's chance to make a statement of intent, especially before he heads to Arsenal next week. Back at the start of last season, Amorim won all 22 of his home games in charge of Sporting Portugal by a combined score of 72-13. United fans will be hoping that their new manager can bring that form to Old Trafford.

Rashford scored Amorim's first goal in charge and he is always a good bet against Everton. He has been involved in five goals (two goals, three assists) in his last seven Premier League games against the Toffees, scoring in his last two. The striker is just two goals away from becoming the sixth United player to score 50 goals in the Premier League at Old Trafford.

Everton have struggled for creativity this season, but if they want to create a threat then Dwight McNeil is likely to be involved.

Including crosses, only Andreas Pereira (103) has made more passes into the opposition box than McNeil (101) in the Premier League this season. McNeil created 30 chances in the 2024-25 season, almost twice as many as any other Everton player (Ashley Young, 16).

Manchester United vs Everton Head-to-Head

Recent (and recent) history is definitely on United's side.

Manchester United have won 41 games against Everton in the Premier League, more than any other team they have beaten in history.

Everton have won just one of their last 31 Premier League games away from home against Manchester United (D8 L22) and that was a 1-0 win in December 2013.

Manchester United have won their last four Premier League games against Everton, the last time being between December 1999 and February 2004 (9 games).

Manchester United vs Everton Prediction

In 10,000 simulations run on the Opta supercomputer, United came out on top at 57.5%.

On the other hand, Everton's probability of winning is just 20.41 TP3T, while the threat of a draw is 22.11 TP3T.