Ligue 1 Season Predictions 2025-26: Opta Predictions

The 2025-26 Ligue 1 season is upon us, with Rennes and Marseille kicking off the new French top flight on Friday.

Paris Saint-Germain are the defending champions and performed brilliantly in the 2024-25 season, winning Ligue 1, the Coupe de France and the UEFA Champions League The UEFA Champions League treble for the first time in their history of the competition.

Luis Enrique's side almost added another title in the summer but only second to FIFA Club World Cup glory in mid-July as they were eliminated in the final by Chelsea.

While Paris Saint-Germain will be looking to show that their Ligue 1 has been dominant again this year - they've won the last four league titles in a row - there are several teams waiting in the wings looking to upset the recent order of things.

Roberto De Zerbi's continuation in charge of Marseille marks the first time in five years that a manager has stayed on for a second season at the club, and he aims to keep the title this time around with a challenge that has seen their strong start to the 2024-25 season end in defeat.

But the likes of Lille and Monaco will also be keen to put pressure at the top after mixed results; in a tight race for a Champions League place last season.

Just eight points separated second and seventh place last season, with Monaco securing their place in Europe's top group stage for the first time since the 2018-19 season, while Lille just missed out on a qualifying spot to Nice.

At the other end of the table, thanks to Reims losing the relegation/promotion playoff to Metz OT, three teams are advancing to Ligue 1, with Lorient tied for FC with the Parisian team, who are back in the top flight for the first time in 46 years.

Here, using a 10,000-times data-driven simulation supercomputer run by Opta, we look at how Ligue 1 will pan out for the 2025-26 season.

Who will win the Ligue 1 title?

Paris Saint-Germain overwhelming favorite to top the table again.

Luis Enrique's side won the league at the start of April Last season, having lost a total of just two league games, their first defeat came after they had already locked up top spot.

They were 19 points ahead of second-place Marseille, who had previously made history by winning the Coupe de France and the Championship, soon to be followed by the league title.

Their 84 points were the most of any of the 18 Ligue 1 teams in the season. It is also the best scoring average (2.5) of the top five Euroleague 2024-25 season.

In fact, Paris Saint-Germain also has the highest possession rate (68.2%), the best shots per game average (18.7) and passes completed per game since the 2006-07 season (656).

They are led by Ousmane Dembele is one of the favorites for the Ballon d'Or and he is an excellent player He scored (35) or assisted (14) 49 goals during the season August made 53 appearances for the French club between 2024 and the end of July 2025.

The 28-year-old's 21 goals in Ligue 1 are tied for the highest rivalry with Marseille's Mason Greenwood, although no player can participate better than his 27 goals. Bradley Bakola is close with 24 points and is one of only two players in the league to reach double figures in goals (14) and assists (10).

Paris Saint-Germain didn't make much of a move in the transfer window - goalkeeper Lucas Chevalier from Lille and defender Ilya joined Zabani from Bournemouth in a big money move - but they still have a 78.7% chance of lifting a fifth trophy Opta Supercomputer for the second consecutive season.

The likelihood of them finishing second is just 12.8%, while the chances of them failing to finish in the top three are low at 3.7%.That said, there does seem to be some drastic changes taking place, as despite the heroics of Gianluigi Donnarumma, the club appear to have allowed him to leave the club's Champions League last season with the stick Between.

Only two teams other than Paris Saint-Germain have won the Ligue 1 title since the 2012-13 season, with Monaco winning in 2016-17 and Lille taking them to the trophy for the 2020-21 season.

With that in mind, Lille have the second best chance of lifting the title, with their hopes standing at just 5.5%, perhaps surprising given that they finished fifth last season and lost star striker Jonathan David, who scored 2,024 Ligue 1 25-goal hauls in the 16-1 season.

They brought in veteran striker Olivier Giroud to join them, and France's record goalscorer could be feeling it After a disappointing period in Los Angeles, he has a point to prove Angeles Football Club, who hit the post just five times, below his expected 7.0 goals.

Supercomputer also offers Monaco an outside chance of 4.2%. They have finished in the top three in four of their last five races Events.

Monaco has also caused a stir in the transfer market, bringing in Ansel Fathi and Paul Pogba, the former returning to football for the first time in almost two years after his suspension. Meanwhile, Fathi is hoping to regain confidence after falling out of favor with Barcelona.

Marseille and Lyon, the latter of which won relegation to Ligue 2 during the appeal break, are the only other teams with odds of more than 2% to win the title (both 3.4%), although all clubs face a huge battle if they are to beat Paris Saint-Germain.

Who will qualify for the Champions League?

Whilst the title race looks like it could be an easy race event, the race for Champions League positions is expectedly more tight, and just like last season, it could go down to the wire.

Seventeen of the league's 18 teams have at least 1% a chance of finishing in the top four, with the top three automatically advancing to the UEFA Champions League group stage one to the third round of qualifiers.

The more likely scenario is that four teams will go head-to-head for the last three spots, so let's focus on the main contenders.

Lille are the favorites to finish second (18.4%) and their overall chances of securing a Champions League spot are 51.4%, though, as mentioned, they won't be without their challenges.

David was a key part of Bruno Genesio's team last season, and his 21 goal involvement (16 goals, 5 assists) was more than double that of any of his teammates.

Overall, Lille scored 52 goals in the 2024-25 season, tied for sixth in the league, but other than David, none of their players managed to hit double figures, and their second-highest scorer, Haakon Haraldsson, scored just five times in the league.

Lille racked up 55.9 xG, so they underperformed in front of the goal. They had 434 shots on goal and converted just 12%.

But it's not only on the offensive end that Lille has questions to answer. Chevalier is also gone, and he was a key part of a strong defense last term. Only Paris Saint-Germain (35) have conceded fewer goals than Lille (36) and they are fifth in expected goals (xGA) at 43.5.

Monaco is expected to finish third in running in their second season (15.21 TP3T), although their chances of finishing second are slightly higher (15.81 TP3T).

Like Lille, Monaco's Champions League impact was well established last season On a strong defense, only Paris Saint-Germain (31.3) boasts a better xGA than their 35.2.

But their campaign was turned upside down with the emergence of Mika The January signing of Bires, who lit up Ligue 1 with three goals with a hat-trick in February, became the fastest to reach the 10-goal mark in the 21st century and the first since Delio Onnis to win three trebles in a season.

Marseille has its own goal-scoring threat in Greenwood, where the 23-year-old ended the 2024-25 season as the tied top scorer Attempted more shots than any other player (120), and they were Projected to be among the top four, with 43%'s accounting for the preseason simulation.

This opportunity, like Lyon, in Paulo Fonseca's team also gives a probability of 43% to ensure a place in the top four First full campaign at the helm.

Lyon has a slightly better chance of finishing third than Marseille (14.1% vs. 13.1%), but is expected to end up in fifth place and earn a Europa League spot.

Nice finished fourth last season, enters the Champions League qualifying for the first time since the 2017-18 season and is Outside betting to perform the same again with a 22.8% chance of earning a place in Europe's top competition.

Strasbourg (22.9%) and Lens (19.2%) are also likely to be in the top four Time, as is Brest, who made it to the Champions League playoffs last season before losing a 10-0 drubbing total to Paris Saint-Germain, who have a 15.4% chance.

Who will be relegated to Ligue 1?

The top half of the table is expected to include the same contenders as last year, with the bottom nine teams likely to be wary of slipping too close to the drop zone.

While there are no overwhelming favorites for relegation, promoted Lorient, Paris FC and Metz are all expected to be dragged into the survival scrap.

Mays beat Lance in overtime to lock up the final promotion spot, but expect them to go straight back to the second split again. They have a 17.4% chance of finishing bottom, and their overall likelihood of automatic relegation is 32.5%.

Meanwhile, Paris will have everyone's attention when they open the season They returned to the top flight for the first time in 46 years on August 17 against Angers, narrowly missing out on the top spot in Ligue 2 by finishing second to Lorient. They went straight back to 31.61 TP3T for the Sims.

Lorient is most likely to enter the bottom two alongside Metz, accounting for 31%. However, the Ligue 1 champions are less likely to be at the bottom of the table (16.3%) than Paris (16.9%), although the team from the capital is expected to finish 15th overall.

Le Havre, who finished with a point from a last-day win over Strasbourg, are not expected to do so again, as they are currently projected to finish in 16th place (13.31 TP3T), with an outright chance of relegation at 30.81 TP3T.

Angers also look set to finish among the bottom of the table as the only team with a direct relegation chance of more than 20% to be relegated (24%), although Nantes (18.4%) could also be in trouble with their chances of a play-off spot at 10.2%.

Although Auxerre are projected to finish 12th, there's a 6.8% chance they may have to play in the play-offs for a place in Ligue 1 in order to avoid 16th, although their chances of finishing in the top four are 6%, which means they'll almost always have an even chance of competing for a place at either end of the table.

Opta Simulation Ligue 1 Table

After simulating every game in Ligue 1 for the 2025-26 season 10,000 times, we were able to average each club's total points in these simulations and rank the teams by position. Here is what the Opta supercomputer got from these simulations:

First place:Paris Saint-Germain - 78.7 Average score
Second place:Lille (city in France) - 58.8
Third place:Monaco - 57.8
Fourth place:Marseille, city in south France - 56.5
Fifth place:Lyon, French city on the Rhône - 56.5
Sixth place:Nice (city in France) - 50.7
Seventh place:Strasbourg - 50.5 para.
Eight names:Rheims (city in France) - 49.4 Paragraph
Nine names:Brest (name) - 47.5 para.
Ten names:Rennes - 46.2
Tenth place:Toulouse (city in France) - 44.6
Twelfth place:Auxerre - 41.7 para.
13:Nantes (city in France) - 37.6 Paragraph
14:Angers - 35.5 para.
15:Paris Football Club - 33.7 Paragraph
16:Le Havre (French town) - 33.5 para.
17:Lorient (city in France) - 33.5 para.
18:Metz (city in France) - 33.2

How does the Opta supercomputer model work?

• Opta's league predictionsThe model estimates a team's likelihood to finish the game in every position in the competition. As a result, we can see how successful a team's season is likely to be, whether it's their chances of relegation or the championship.

• The model uses betting market odds and Opta Strength Rankingto estimate the probability of the outcome of each match (win, draw or loss). Odds and rankings are based on historical and recent team performance.

• The model uses these to take into account the strength of the opponents, match the outcome probabilities and simulate the remaining fixtures thousands of times. By analyzing the results of each simulation, the model can see how often teams finish each league position to create our final predictions.