Ligue 1 2022-23 Season Predictions : Opta Predictions

Ligue 1 Champions Predictions

As expected, the supercomputer can't see beyond the PSG. They are now five points ahead of second-placed Lens and the Parisians have a 98.5% chance of maintaining that advantage to win the title. If it turns out as the supercomputer predicts, it will be Paris Saint-Germain's 11th title, one more than Marseille and Saint-Etienne on the all-time list.

Christophe Galtier will have to fill his squad with world-class talent, and now a couple more World Cup winners, to adapt to the task of the second half of the season. How much of Messi remains after pouring so much into Argentina's World Cup triumph? Can Mbappe and Neymar put their injuries behind them after such a disappointing end to their 2022 World Cup dreams? The only team that can stop PSG right now is PSG.

Which team will qualify for the Champions League?

The supercomputer needs only 0.01% of its bandwidth to tell us who will win the Ligue 1 title - something any regular old laptop running Windows 95 can predict. An even more difficult task is predicting how the divisions below the Parisians will sort themselves out. There are only four teams left in the final two places in the Champions League, one of which is third and needs to go through the qualifiers first. Lens, Rennes, Olympique de Marseille and Monaco are the teams the supercomputer considers most likely.

Lens are now in a dominant position and have a 0.9% chance of pushing PSG to the top of the table. They have a much better chance of qualifying for next year's Champions League with a second place finish at 40.7% rather than catching Paris Saint-Germain. Rennes are third with 31 points and have a 24.0% chance of finishing second to reach the Champions League, with a 25.8% chance of having to go through the qualifiers.

Olympique, Marseille and Monaco make up the chasers.

Which team will be relegated from Ligue 1?

The competition to avoid relegation is far more intense. As part of the league's reorganization, four teams will enter Ligue 2 next season. There will be only 18 teams in the top flight next season, which is why the supercomputer expects a lot of creaky times in the second half of the season.

Angers have only 8 points. But that's only 5 points less than 16th-placed Brest. If Angers can make a big push in the second half of the year, staying up is not an impossible task. However, the supercomputer gives them a 91.4% chance of dropping into League Two, so it won't be easy. Things could get even more difficult if they fail to retain the services of Azzedine Ounahi after January. The Moroccan was outstanding at the World Cup and they have received many offers for his services. They now want to reach an agreement to keep him until the summer, but that might not be possible.

Strasbourg, Ajaccio and Auxerre are the other three teams in the relegation zone, but the supercomputer doesn't think they'll all stay there. Strasbourg are in 19th place with 11 points and the chances of being relegated are just 27.9%. that's lower than 13th placed Troyes, but they will need to regroup after the break. Ajaccio and Auxerre have a 67.3% and 63.2% chance of the dreaded 'R' word. Brest are currently outside the relegation zone, but they have a 46.1% chance of being relegated.

How do supercomputer models work?

- Opta's league prediction model estimates the likelihood of a team finishing in each position in the competition. As a result, we can see how successful a team's season is likely to be, whether it's their chances of relegation or winning the title.

- The model estimates the probability of each game's outcome (win, draw or loss) by using betting market odds and Opta's team rankings. The odds and rankings are based on historical and recent team performance.

- The model uses these match result probabilities to take into account the strength of the opposition and simulates the remaining fixtures in the competition thousands of times. By analyzing the results of each simulation, the model can see how often a team finishes at the bottom of each league to make our final prediction.