Chelsea vs Arsenal Prediction

Chelsea vs Arsenal stats: key insights

• ground Opta supercomputerArsenal have a 39.2% chance of winning. Chelsea are winning at 34.4% in pre-match simulations.
• Arsenal have won three of their last four league trips to Stamford Bridge (D1), as many as their previous 20 wins (D7 L10).
• Since the start of last season, Nicholas Jackson has been involved in more London derby goals than any other player in the Premier League (10 goals, 2 assists).

Arsenal's hopes of ending their long wait for a domestic title are in danger of being dashed after recent losses to Bournemouth and Newcastle United.

Mikel Arteta's Gunners have picked up just seven points from their last five league games following last week's 0-1 loss at St James' Park, meaning they are seven points behind leaders Liverpool heading into matchday 11.

Injuries have taken their toll on Arteta's side and things won't get any easier against Chelsea, who sit above them on goal difference, on Sunday.

Enzo Maresca's Blues last fought back to draw 1-1 with Manchester United, with Moises Caicedo's overhead kick canceling out Bruno Fernandes' penalty. Only Manchester City and Liverpool have beaten Chelsea since the Italian took over.

In fact, Chelsea's last three Premier League defeats have all come against teams that finished in the top three last season, with Arsenal beating them in April. They are unbeaten in their last 21 games against all other teams, winning 14 and drawing seven, while scoring 57 goals - an average of 2.7 per game.

The future is certainly bright for Maresca's young team. Last week, they fielded a starting lineup at Old Trafford with an average age of 23 years and 96 days.

They thrashed Armenian side NOAA in the Europa League 8-0 on Thursday. However, Chelsea are arguably still waiting for Maresca's first statement win in the Premier League.

They will be hoping that Cole Palmer can win his battle for fitness after suffering a knock in the last game against Manchester United. Since arriving at Stamford Bridge last year, Palmer has scored more home goals (21) than any other player in this competition.

Nicolas Jackson has been involved in more 12 goals in Premier League London derbies than any other player since the start of last season, so Arsenal will need to keep a close eye on the Senegalese striker.

Arsenal need to get back on track after losses to Bournemouth and Newcastle. They may have lost three straight away games in the Premier League for the first time since December 2021, when they ended up outside the top four. They also lost 0-1 to Inter Milan in the Champions League on Wednesday.

The Gunners have won just seven points from their five away games this season, fewer than Liverpool (13), Nottingham Forest (11), Chelsea, Manchester City and Aston Villa (all 10).

Ødegaard's return after a two-month absence due to an ankle injury was a major boost. The Norwegian led all Premier League players in expected assists (11.2 xA) and chances created by the offense (88) last season.

Arsenal have exceeded their basic attacking metrics this season, scoring 17 league goals out of 15.8 expected goals (xG), so shots on target don't seem to be an issue for them. However, the fact that they are eighth in the league in xG does suggest that creating chances is an issue.

Chelsea vs Arsenal

Arsenal have traditionally fared poorly against Chelsea in the Premier League, but the fixtures between the two teams have changed recently.

The Gunners have won three of their last four league visits to Stamford Bridge (D1), as many as they have won in their previous 20 league visits to Stamford Bridge (D7 L10).

Overall, Chelsea have won just one of their last nine Premier League games against Arsenal (D2 L6) and that was a 2-0 away win in August 2021.

Their last meeting was a 5-0 thrashing of Arsenal at the Emirates Stadium in April, their biggest win against Chelsea in all competitions.

Chelsea vs Arsenal Prediction

As you'd expect, the Opta supercomputer found it difficult to separate the two sides given that they were only separated by goal difference ahead of Sunday's game.

In 10,000 pre-match simulations conducted by the supercomputer, Arsenal have a 39.21 TP3T margin of victory, a slight advantage over the hosts, who have a 34.41 TP3T margin of victory. the likelihood of a draw is 26.41 TP3T.