Fulham vs Brentford Prediction

Fulham vs Brentford stats: key insights

• Opta supercomputerConsider Fulham as favorites to win this matchup, with the home team winning at 46% in its 10,000 pre-match simulations.
• Fulham have lost six of their last seven Premier League games played on Monday night, but beat Wolves 3-2 in the last such game last November.
• Prior to this matchday, only West Ham United's Premier League games (275) had more shots on target than Brentford's nine games this season (268).

Fulham will host Brentford on Monday night as the West London rivals meet again in the Premier League at Craven Farm.

Only one point separates the two teams at the top of the table, with Brentford now just one step ahead with 13 points from their first nine games.

This is despite the fact that Thomas Frank's side have struggled defensively, conceding 18 goals in their first nine Premier League games this season.

It was their highest after nine league games since the 1961-62 season (19) and the first time the Bees had not kept a clean sheet at this stage since the 2015-16 season.

However, Brentford's attacking prowess means they sit in the top half of the table on this matchday, having scored eight goals in their last three Premier League matches, but winning the two games in which they have conceded three goals in that time (5-3 against Wolves, 4-3 against Ipswich).

Until then, Brentford had not won a Premier League game in which they had conceded three or more goals (4 draws and 19 losses).

However, Fulham's recent record in London derbies is strong, with Fulham unbeaten in their last five such games. Their last unbeaten run against a London side came in the 2006-07 season (seven games in a row).

They haven't quite reached the heights of Brentford's attack so far this season, scoring 12 goals to their opponents' 18, although their strikers' shots haven't helped.

Andreas Pereira has undoubtedly been providing the chances, with only Bukayo Saka (27) creating more chances than the former Manchester United player's 26. However, none of the chances created by Pereira have been converted by his teammates.

Pereira set up 11 different players and only Tottenham's Dejan Kulusevski created chances for more teammates with 12 players.

Brentford have attacking firepower of their own, especially considering the form of Brian Mbemo, who has scored eight Premier League goals so far this season.

Only Manchester City's Ellyn Harland has scored more goals than him (11), while Mbemo has scored 11 goals in his last 13 London derbies, including two in a 3-0 win at Craven Farm last season.

Yoanne Wissa has also joined in. In his last eight Premier League appearances for Brentford, he has been involved in 10 goals (seven goals, three assists), scoring or assisting every 52 minutes during that period.

In terms of team news, Brentford could welcome the return of Christopher Ayre, although the likes of Aaron Hickey and Rico Henry are still out with long-term injuries.

For Fulham, Joachim Anderson could return from suspension, while Carlos Vinicius and Timothy Castagne could also feature. However, Sasa Lukic looks more likely to be fit by the end of November.

Fulham vs Brentford Head-to-Head

Fulham have won just one of their last nine league games against Brentford (three draws and five defeats), beating them 3-2 in the first Premier League meeting between the two sides in August 2022.

Meanwhile, Brentford have lost just one of their last 11 away league games against Fulham (five wins and five draws) and have scored just once at Craven Farm during that period.

The last derby between the two sides was in May when the teams played out a goalless draw at the Gtech Community Stadium as they headed to the safety of the comfortable Premier League.

Fulham vs Brentford Prediction

Opta supercomputers backed Fulham to earn bragging rights on Monday, winning 46% in 10,000 pre-match simulations.

Brentford could move closer to a European place if they win, having gained 3 points from 29.7% in the simulation. Meanwhile, the incidence of draws is 24.3%.

Despite being slightly ahead of Fulham this season, Brentford are expected to finish the season slightly below their rivals. The supercomputer has Brentford rated 13th, which is the most likely end for Brentford, relegated in a simulation of just 1.51%, while Fulham are projected to finish in 12th place.