Arsenal vs Southampton Predictions

Arsenal vs Southampton by the numbers: key insights

• Opta supercomputerMaking Arsenal the favorites to beat winless Southampton at the Emirates, the Gunners have a 78.51 TP3T chance of winning.
• Southampton's 24 away games against Arsenal in the Premier League are the most games a team has not won against another team in the competition (8 draws and 16 losses).
• Havertz has scored in four consecutive home games. The last player to score in five consecutive home games for Arsenal was Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang in September 2019

Two extra-time goals saved Arsenal from blushes as they beat Leicester City 4-2 in their last Premier League game, and the Gunners maintain one of only two unbeaten records in the league alongside Manchester City. They will be very confident of maintaining that position when winless Southampton visit the Emirates on Saturday.

Wilfred Ndidi's equalizer and Havertz's goal gave Arsenal victory on Matchday 6, with James Justin's double canceling out first-half goals from Gabriel Martinelli and Leandro Trossard. With Paris Saint-Germain beaten 2-0 in the Champions League in midweek, Mikel Arteta's side are now aiming for three home wins in seven days.

Another win would give Arsenal 400 home victories in the Premier League, a milestone previously reached only by Manchester United (428). Meanwhile, only four teams have lost more away games in the competition than Southampton's 246.

One player who has been particularly enjoyable at the Emirates recently is Havertz, who scored against Paris Saint-Germain on Tuesday and has also scored six goals in his last six league games. He has scored in four consecutive Premier League home games and Aubameyang is the last player to score five consecutive goals in the Premier League for the Gunners, which was in September 2019.

Having already beaten Leicester City this season, Arsenal are unbeaten in their last 40 Premier League home games against promoted teams, and since losing 0-1 to Newcastle United in November 2010, they have won 35 and drawn five. Only Chelsea (43 from 2001 to 2015) and Manchester City (41 from 2007 to 2020) have longer such streaks in the history of the competition.

Arsenal remain without several players for Saturday's game, with Martin Ödgo, Oleksandr Zinchenko and Takehiro Tomoyasu not expected to return until after the international break. Meanwhile, defenders Ben White and Urien Timber are also doubtful.

Southampton face a daunting task as they chase their first win since promotion to the Championship, having comprehensively beaten neighbors Bournemouth 3-1 on Monday. Russell Martin's Saints have picked up just one point from their first six games of the 2024-25 season, which is tied for their worst start to any league season (they also picked up just one point in the top flight in 1998-99).

Throughout the 2024-25 and 2022-23 relegation seasons, Southampton are now winless in 19 Premier League matches, drawing five and losing 14. Only once in their top-flight history have they endured a longer winning streak, going 20 matches without a win between August and December 1969.

If they are to leave the Emirates Stadium with a result, they may rely on Aaron Ramsdale, who is familiar to Arsenal fans. The former Gunners goalkeeper could become the ninth goalkeeper to face Arsenal in the Premier League, having previously represented them in the tournament.

Only one, Aston Villa's Emiliano Martinez, had kept a clean sheet in his first such game, a 3-0 win at the Emirates in November 2020, in the previous eight matches.

At the other end of the pitch, Martin's side have really struggled, scoring just three goals in 7.7 expected goals (xG). Only Manchester United (5 goals in 10.6 xG) have been worse than their underlying stats this season, while Southampton's 4.4% shot conversion rate is the worst in the Premier League.

Ben Bretton-Diaz is one of the strikers looking to rectify that, with Monday's game against Bournemouth leaving him without a win in 20 Premier League appearances (five draws and 15 defeats), the most by any player in Premier League history.

Southampton will be without captain Jack Stephens, who spoke to the referee about an additional two-match suspension after being red-carded in the Saints' recent loss to Manchester United, but Will Smallbone could return after recovering from a thigh injury.

Arsenal vs Southampton

Southampton have actually given Arsenal problems of late, going unbeaten in the last three Premier League meetings between the two teams (one win and two draws), and they have drawn both of their games in 2022-23 - including a 3-3 draw at the Emirates.

However, the Saints have visited Arsenal 24 times in the Premier League and have never tasted victory, drawing eight times and losing 16 times. That's the most times any team has visited another team in a match without winning.

Arsenal are unbeaten in their last 28 home games against Southampton since November 1987 when they lost 0-1 to Southampton. Only against Fulham (currently 31 games) do they have a longer unbeaten home run in their league history.

Southampton also had a tougher time in London, losing 82 of their 139 Premier League games (59%), which is the highest percentage of losses among the 12 teams that have played 100 or more away games there. In fact, only Everton (91) and Newcastle (89) have more total losses than the Saints.

Arsenal vs Southampton Predictions

Knowing that Arsenal are the favorites for Saturday's game, it's no surprise that they won 78.5% in the Opta Supercomputer's pre-game simulation.

Southampton's chances of winning are just 8.7%, while 12.8% of the simulation reaches a draw.

Arsenal have an 18.1% chance of winning the title in our season predictions, while Manchester City have a 72.1% chance of winning the title, which is the second highest in the league at 45%. Meanwhile, Southampton are relegated in a simulation of 89.9%, by far the highest probability in the division.

Arsenal vs Southampton predicted lineups