Chelsea vs Brighton Prediction

Chelsea vs Brighton stats: key insights

• The Opta supercomputer has Chelsea as favorites to win this match, with the home team winning 53.41 TP3T in its 10,000 pre-match simulations.
• Chelsea won both meetings with Brighton in the Premier League last season, despite having a player sent off in each game.
• Brighton are one of four teams to remain unbeaten in the Premier League this season, despite drawing their last three (W2).

Chelsea host Brighton and Hove Albion at Stamford Bridge on Saturday as they look to make it four wins in a row in all competitions.

Chelsea thrashed League Two side Barrow 5-0 in the EFL Cup on Tuesday, following wins over Bournemouth and West Ham United, with Christopher Nkunku scoring a hat-trick and new signing Pedro Neto also scoring.

That makes two cup wins at Stamford Bridge this season, although they have yet to win at home in the league, losing to Manchester City and drawing with Crystal Palace.

While Enzo Maresca's side won all three away games to take them into the weekend in fifth place, failing to pick up three points against Brighton will mark the third time in the Premier League era that they have failed to win their first three home games of the season.

However, they will face Brighton, who are looking to go unbeaten in their first-ever six-game start to a top-flight campaign, with the Seagulls currently in seventh place, just three points behind second-placed Liverpool.

Despite their unbeaten start, Brighton have drawn their last three league games, with the last four straight draws coming in October 2014.

Meanwhile, Chelsea have won 8 of their last 10 Premier League matches. In fact, no team has won more Premier League points than them (25) since the beginning of May (when it started).

Only Manchester City (13) have scored more goals in the Premier League than Chelsea (11) so far this season. The Blues are currently outperforming any other team in terms of expected goals (11 goals, 8 xG), while their 18.61 TP3T shot conversion rate is the highest in a single season (since 1997-98).

Their strength in front of goal has been helped by the progress of Nicholas Jackson, who has been involved in 13 goals in his last 13 Premier League appearances for Chelsea (nine goals, four assists), one more than in his first 27 starts (nine goals, three assists).

But Fabian Hozierer's side have an in-form striker. Danny Welbeck has three goals and an assist in the Premier League this season, and he has scored three goals in his last four league games against Chelsea, all three of which have come off the bench.

In injury news, Brighton will be without Matt O'Reilly, James Milner, Solly March and Joao Pedro, who suffered a midweek setback after coming on as a substitute in last weekend's 2-2 home draw with Nottingham Forest.

Meanwhile, Reece James will continue to miss the Chelsea game, but Romeo Lavia may be fit enough to make his second league appearance of the season.

Chelsea vs Brighton Head to Head

After going five straight Premier League games without a win over Brighton (D3, L2), Chelsea doubled up on the Seagulls last season.

Brighton have lost just one of their last four Premier League away games (W1, D2), despite losing 3-2 in this fixture last season.

The sides last met at the American Express Stadium in May, with 10-man Chelsea picking up three valuable points on their way to UEFA Cup qualification thanks to goals from Cole Palmer and Nkunku.

Chelsea vs Brighton Prediction

Chelsea made it three league wins in a row this weekend with the support of the Opta supercomputer in a pre-match simulation at 53.6%.

Brighton had 241 TP3T to get three points of their own, while they extended their unbeaten run in all competitions to seven games, drawing in 22.41 TP3T of simulation.

Both teams are considered European challengers, with the supercomputer now rating Chelsea as most likely to finish fourth, having qualified for the Champions League at 43.4% in the simulation.

Brighton's chances of returning to Europe are considered unlikely, with them most likely to finish ninth and have 6.6% to reach a UEFA Cup spot.

Chelsea vs Brighton predicted lineups