Tottenham vs Arsenal Predictions

Tottenham vs Arsenal stats: key insights

• The Opta supercomputer has made Arsenal favorites for Sunday's derby, giving them a 43% chance of beating Tottenham Hotspur, who have a 31.5% chance of winning.
• Arsenal's last two Premier League away wins against Tottenham have been as many as their previous 17 visits (six draws and nine defeats).
• Tottenham captain Son has scored eight goals against Arsenal in all competitions. In the history of the competition, only Harry Kane (14), Emmanuel Adebayor (10) and Bobby Smith (10) have scored more goals in North London derbies than the South Korean.

The Premier League is back after the first international day of the season and Sunday's headline main event looks to be worth the wait as Tottenham host Arsenal.

The first North London derby of the season came after disappointing results for both sides on matchday three, with Arsenal losing early games at Manchester City and Liverpool as they were held to 1-1 draws by Brighton and Hove Albion.

Meanwhile, Angel Postecoglou's Tottenham Hotspur were beaten 2-1 at Newcastle United, leaving them three points behind their rivals in the early season table.

That's despite Spurs having 20 shots on goal to the hosts' nine, having 65.71 TP3T of possession and making almost as many passes in the attacking third (235) as Newcastle's total (261). The "Spurs" tag continues to haunt Postecoglou's side, who also failed to exert their dominance in Leicester City's Matchday 1 draw.

North London derbies are often a tough test of Tottenham's resilience, and they will have to tighten up their defense in order to have a game without too many shutouts.

Arsenal v Tottenham Hotspur has seen both teams score more often than any other game in Premier League history (43 times), while it is also a game in which the first-goal team has failed to win more often than any other (29 times, 19 draws and 10 losses).

Postecoglou would like to see Mikey van der Ven overcome a knee injury ahead of Sunday's game, while midfielder Yves Bissouma and striker Dominic Solanke are also doubtful of fitness.

If Solanko, whose ankle injury caused him to miss Tottenham's final two games, is unable to recover from his ankle injury, captain Son could take on a center-forward role. He has scored eight goals against Arsenal in all competitions; in the history of this tournament (in all competitions), only Harry Kane (14), Emmanuel Adebayor (10) and Bobby Smith (10) have scored more goals in North London derbies than the South Korean.

Meanwhile, Arsenal dropped their first points of the season in their last match against Brighton. But Declan Rice's sending off for a second yellow card for kicking the ball early in the second half may have proved more of an inconvenience than a result.

Rice's first red card of his Premier League career - it was his 245th appearance - left Arteta with a major selection dilemma in the engine room.

Rice started 37 of the Gunners' 38 Premier League matches last season, appearing as a substitute in another. It's often said that availability is the best ability, and Rice's 3,230 minutes of Premier League appearances during the 2023-24 season were second only to eight other outfielders - including teammate William Saliba (a full 3,420 minutes).

Under Rice, Arsenal took control last season, giving up the fourth-fewest fast breaks (23) and tied for the fifth-fewest fast break shots (20) in the Premier League.

Rice's absence could be even more costly considering captain Martin Ødegaard is unavailable. The attacking midfielder, who has been vital to Arsenal for much of the campaign, suffered an ankle injury in the national team game and faces around three weeks out.

Thomas Partey and Jorginho could be tasked with holding down the fort as they face a Spurs team that is quick in transition, while the likes of Son, Wilson-Odobert and Brennan Johnson will be desperate to capitalize on Rice's vacancy.

Tottenham Hotspur scored three goals in 25 fast breaks in last season's Premier League matches, averaging a goal every 8.3 fast breaks - only eight teams scored more often in such situations.

Tottenham Hotspur vs Arsenal

It's been a poor recent run of games for Tottenham, who have lost five of their last seven Premier League meetings with Arsenal (one win and one draw). That's more than they've lost in their previous 16 matches against their rivals (six wins, six draws and four losses).

Furthermore, Arsenal have won as many of their last two Premier League games away from home against Tottenham Hotspur as they had in their previous 17 visits (six draws and nine defeats).

The last time they won three consecutive North London derbies away from home was between January 1987 and September 1988.

The draw at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium has the lowest percentage of draws in Premier League history (9%, 9/101), so maybe we shouldn't expect the spoils to be shared.

Tottenham Hotspur vs Arsenal Predictions

Arsenal recently dominated the North London derby and despite not having home advantage, the Opta supercomputer makes them slight favorites.

In 10,000 match simulations on the supercomputer, they won 43% of matches, with Tottenham Hotspur winning at a rate of 31.5% and the remaining 25.5% of matches ending in a draw.

In our 2024-25 season predictions, Arsenal's chances of winning the title drop to 6.7% after perfect starts from Manchester City (84.7%) and Liverpool (8.4%), while Tottenham Hotspur have a 12.5% chance of finishing in the top four.

Tottenham Hotspur vs Arsenal Predicted Lineups

Tottenham Hotspur (soccer team): Guglielmo Vicario, Pedro Polo, Cristian Romero, Radu Dragushin, Destiny Udoji, Rodrigo Bentancourt, Pape Saar, Sun, James Madison, Wilson Odobert, Dejan Kulusevski.

Arsenal: David Raya, Ben White, William Saliba, Gabriel Magalhães, Yuriyan Timber, Jorginho, Thomas Pärt, Leandro Trossard, Gabriel Martinelli, Kai Havertz, and Bukayo Saka.