Inter Milan vs AC Milan Prediction

Inter Milan vs AC Milan: Quick Strike

• Opta Supercomputer favors Inter Milan to continue their undefeated start to the Serie A season, with their chances of winning standing at 46.21 TP3T to Milan's 26.21 TP3T.
• Going into this matchweek, Inter Milan (14.3) were second only to Napoli (15.3) among all teams in Europe's top five leagues in terms of penalty area shots per game this season.
• Milan's Olivier Giroud leads Serie A with 1.15 goals per 90 expected (xG); Inter Milan's Lautaro Martinez is second with 0.99 points.

Inter Milan vs AC Milan: Head to Head

Inter Milan have recently beenderbyDominance. Since the start of the 2020-21 season, the two sides have met 12 times in all competitions, with Inter winning seven of those matches and Milan winning three.

As Juventus' dominance of Italian soccer has waned over the past few years, the Milan derby has once again taken on a deeper significance than a mere cross-city rivalry.

Inter and Milan are both title contenders in Serie A, and the Milan derby is now taking on even more significance since the new Champions League-affected 2019-20 season, which has been reflected in the intensity of recent encounters.

As if the battle for the Serie A title wasn't enough, Milan boss Stefano Pioli recently even mentioned the "second star" of his team and Inter's hopes of winning 20 Serie A titles this season, with both sides currently on 19.

However, Inter Milan recently had Milan's number, which could be the BlueBlack ArmyFor the first time ever, the Regiment won five straight against their co-tenants at the San Siro.

The two sides met in last season's Champions League semi-finals, and the two legs were essentially a precursor to the respective tactical directions we've seen this season.

Back in May, Inter's relentlessness in attacking and defensive transitions and set-piece situations helped them reach the final against Manchester City. In the absence of Andrea Onana and Marcelo Brozovic, Simone Inzaghi has adapted. This has come at the expense of media resistance as Hakan Çalhanoglu is now deployed at the bottom of midfield.

Meanwhile, after a change in formation for the two rounds in May, despite Sandro Tonali leaving Newcastle United in the offseason.But the Red and BlackStill looking to further refine their possession game.

Match Preview

The question for Saturday's derby, as always, is which team will control possession? In the most recent meeting between the two teams, that team was Milan, and their deepening tactical shift in the offseason is enough to suggest that will continue. Pioli's side have doubled down on possession, following the recent trend of inverting wing-backs. In the early stages of the season, this was mainly seen with Davide Calabria moving from right-back to a central position, and in some instances, such as the last time out against Roma, Red Krunic moved between the center-backs, with Tidjani Reinders and Ruben Chick dropping back.

As a result, Milan's progressive passing percentage of 4.9% is the third lowest among the 31 teams in Europe's top five leagues that average more than 400 completed passes per game. The sample size is certainly small, but it's worth noting that in similar possession matches, Manchester City have the second lowest percentage at 4.81 TP3T, while Las Palmas are the lowest at 4.71 TP3T.

However, the difference between Milan and the likes of Manchester City or Arsenal is that the latter keep their opponents' defenses in their own half of the pitch. Of the 31 teams so far, Milan have the lowest passer rating at 16.91 TP3T, which is a far cry from a team like Arsenal, who have the highest number of goals scored at 35.31 TP3T.

This ultimately translates into a low volume and quality of shots, with Milan ranking sixth out of 31 teams in Europe's top five leagues in terms of shots in the box (8.33) and non-penalty xG (1.08) on average.

While Reynders and Loftus-Cheek have adapted well to Serie A, actually being a double pivot of Krunic and Calabria feels like the most pragmatic composition. Even so, at times it felt like Milan were stuck in quicksand in the midfield three, as highlighted by Krunic completing 66 passes with an accuracy of 96% against Roma - only Fikayo Tomori (80) was more efficient in his passing - -but only 3 times into the offensive third.

That's a problem for Inter Milan, who as an extension of their late-season form last season have been energized by the transition to the start of this season, especially in their last game against Fiorentina.

Lautaro Martinez has had to take on greater responsibility between the boxes with the arrival of Marcus Thuram and Hakan Çalhanoglu's permanent move to midfield in Simone Inzaghi's 3-5-2 formation. Martinez has been key so far, starting the season averaging more touches (44.3) and consecutive passes (8.6) per 90 minutes than he had previously in theBlue and Black ArmyMore in any of the Mission's five seasons.

However, that doesn't take away from his ability to get into the box, as his 16 shots on goal in Serie A so far are only fewer than Napoli's Viktor Osimhen (18). Additionally, Martinez (0.18) is tied for fourth in non-penalty xG per shot among players who have finished with five or more shots on goal in Serie A this season, behind Thuram (0.21).

Inter Milan's 4-0 win over Fiorentina prior to International Day was emblematic of this emphasis on creating shots on goal after immediately regaining possession.

Thuram's 23rd-minute opener came from a high turnover before Inter went from one end to the other as Martinez doubled the lead and broke the game open early in the second half.

Last season, as the ageing Dzeko and the out-of-form Romelu Lukaku played up front alongside Martinez, they were arguably what they lacked. In Serie A this season, only Napoli (10) have had more high misses on goal than Inter (8), and that doesn't include converted shots from deeper in the pitch.

Recent Forms

As mentioned, Inter could make it five straight wins against Milan in all competitions for the first time in their history, and they have scored in their last 11 'home' games against Milan. They have never scored in 12 consecutive derbies, and also won 11 in a row between April 1993 and January 2000.

Meanwhile, Milan have won both of their away games against Inter in the league, and there are some ominous readings for Inter fans - the last time they faced Milan on equal points was the infamous 6-0 thrashing in May 2001, which remains the biggest loss in the history of the competition.

Opta Strength Ranking

The Opta Power Ranking is a global team ranking system that assigns the ability to rate more than 13,000 domestic soccer teams on a scale between 0 and 100, where 0 indicates the worst ranking in the world and 100 the best. Ahead of Saturday's derby, here are the rankings for Inter and Milan.

Inter Milan vs AC Milan Prediction

Opta Supercomputer favors Inter Milan to continue their undefeated start to the Serie A season, with their chances of winning at 46.21 TP3T to Milan's 26.21 TP3T. the draw rate is just 201 TP3T.

Inter Milan have not conceded a single goal in their first three games of the season. A win here would see them win four of their first four Serie A games for the eighth time and the first time since the 2019-20 season, and they could do so with four clean sheets for the first time in the history of the competition.