Serie A Predictions for the 2024-25 Season: Opta Predictions

Serie A season predictions: quick hits

Title favorite: FC Internazionale Milano (football club)
Top 4 favorites:Inter Milan, Atalanta, Juventus and Milan
Relegation favorites:Venice, Cagliari and Como

In recent years, Serie A has earned a reputation as one of the most competitive leagues in Europe.

Since Juventus won the Serie A title for nine consecutive seasons in 2011-12 and 2019-20, the last five seasons have produced four different champions, while Milan, Napoli and Inter have been the top teams in the last three seasons.

However, after winning their 20th domestic title in quiet fashion last season, Simone Inzaghi's Blue and Blacks are the favorites to defend their title for the 2024-25 season, keeping the core of their squad together while also adding experienced free agents Peter Zielinski and Mehdi Taremi.

If they falter, there will be no shortage of covetous contenders for their throne from Europa League champions Atalanta to traditional powerhouses Juventus and Milan under the new management of Thiago Motta and Paulo Fonseca.

Who are the proponents of the Opta supercomputer's success in the 2024-25 season and who are the teams expected to endure a struggling season?

 Who will win the Serie A title in the 2024-25 season?

Given Inter Milan's dominance in winning the title in the 2023-24 season, it's no surprise to see the Opta supercomputer as the overwhelming favorite to defend the title.

The Blue and Blacks top our 79.2% season simulation. For context, this figure is only slightly lower than the 82.2% probability assigned by the supercomputer to Manchester City as they vie for a fifth consecutive Premier League title in the 2024-25 season.

Inzaghi's side finished 19 points clear of runners-up Milan last season, with their only two losses coming against Sassuolo, who were eventually relegated. Had Inter not dropped seven points after winning the title, they could have become only the second team to score 100 points in a Serie A season after Juventus (102) in 2013-14.

Most impressively, Inter Milan had a big win in the transfer window with the departures of key players Andrea Onana, Edin Dzeko, Milan Škriniar, Robin Goossens, Marcelo Brozović and Romelu Lukaku. With no big names leaving the club this season, it looked like they were going to lose their 21st Serie A title.

Traditional rivals Juventus or Milan aren't inclined to push Inter Milan through the supercomputer as of late, with Atlanta having an 11.2% chance of winning their first top-flight title.

Gian Piero Gasperini's side beat unbeaten Bundesliga champions Leverkusen in the UEFA Cup final in May thanks to Ademola Lukman's memorable hat-trick, and they also finished fourth in the league and lost to Juventus in the Coppa Italia final.

Gianluca Scamacca's departure due to an ACL injury was a major blow to Radja's hopes, but with the arrivals of Nicolo Zagnolo and Matteo Retegui, as well as Charles de Cetral's loan move on a permanent basis, they should continue to be a force to be reckoned with, as well as being a favorite of neutral teams.

Juventus are the only team with more than a 1.8% chance of winning the Serie A title, topping our season simulation with a 4.2% chance. The Turin giants snapped up Italy's favorite coach after the turbulent end of the Massimiliano Allegri era, with Motta leaving Bologna with the parting gift of Champions League qualification.

The signings of Douglas Luiz and Heffron Thuram seem shrewd, but Juventus scored just 54 league goals last season, their fewest since the 1999-20 season (46). This season could be make or break for striker Dušan Vlahović.

Which team will qualify for the Champions League?

The Italian club's impressive run in the UEFA competition last season ensured that five teams reached the Champions League, with just nine points separating fourth-placed Atalanta from eighth-placed Fiorentina by the end of the season.

Another fierce European battle is on the horizon, and while the supercomputer gives Milan only a 1.8% chance of equalling Inter's 20 Serie A titles, they are second only to the Blue and Blacks, Atalanta and Juventus in our predictions table.

However, the fact that they finished in the top four at just 42.2% suggests that there is stiff competition in the upper reaches of Serie A. A young Milan side stormed to an early Serie A title under Stefano Pioli in the 2021-22 season, but his successor, Fonseca, must now oversee the next stage of their development.

With Olivier Giroud heading to the United States, the Red and Blacks have made a move for Spain's Euro 2024-winning captain Alvaro Morata, who could be one of the signings of the season. Morata scored 15 goals in La Liga for Atletico Madrid last season, despite making just 21 starts in what was tied for the most prolific league season of his career (along with the 2016-17 season at Real Madrid).

Roma missed out on Champions League qualification last season, despite club legend Daniele De Rossi steadying the ship after Jose Mourinho's sacking. They finished in the top four at 32.8%, while Roma's rivals Lazio (now managed by Marco Baroni) finished in the top four at 25.6%.

Bologna were the surprise of Serie A last season as their fifth place finish was enough to bring home the Champions League title, but can they repeat the trick? Their appointment of Vincenzo Italiano, who led Fiorentina to back-to-back UEFA Europa League Conference finals, seems prudent, but the Red and Blacks have also lost key players Riccardo Calafiori and Joshua Zilkzer. Their top four hopes stand at 28.9%.

What about Napoli, who were runaway champions just over a year ago but endured a truly dismal title defense? They finished 10th last season and with three coaching changes, they only have a 15.1% chance of finishing in the top four, but new boss Antonio Conte is enjoying being the underdog.

He led Chelsea to the Premier League title in the 2016-17 season when he took over a team that had just finished 10th. He couldn't, could he? Napoli's title hopes are 0.4%.

Who will be relegated from Serie A in the 2024-25 season?

Two of the three promoted teams survived Serie A last season, with Genoa almost in the top half and Cagliari leading by a single point. Frosinone were unable to extend their stay in the top flight by more than a year, with Salernitana and Sassuolo slipping down the table with them.

The supercomputer's predictions for this year's promotions aren't good, with Como (491 TP3T) and Venezia (44.71 TP3T) expected to return to Serie B immediately. Como, of course, are coached by former Spain star Cesc Fabregas and count World Cup winner Raphael Varane and Andrea Belotti, who scored 26 goals in Serie A for Torino in 2016-17. Among their new signings.

Meanwhile, Cagliari are hoping to avoid second-season syndrome with David Nicola taking over after the retirement of the popular Claudio Ranieri. He has his work cut out for him, with the Sardinians having a 46.3% chance of falling.

Serie B champions Parma - 1990s Calcio The fan favorite - down in the simulation at 40.8% - is another of seven clubs with a relegation chance of more than 20%.

Lecce (34.51 TP3T), Verona (27.91 TP3T) and Empoli (24.11 TP3T) are the others, with more than a third of the league's teams having reason to look back.

Opta-Simulation Serie A 2024-25 Season Standings

After simulating the 2024-25 season 10,000 times, we were able to rank the teams by averaging each club's point total across these simulations. Below are the results obtained by the Opta supercomputer from these simulations:

First:Inter Milan - 84.9 average points
Second place:Atlanta - 73.0
Third place:Juventus - 68.5
Fourth place:Milan - 65.6
Fifth place:Rome - 63.8
Sixth place:Bologna - 63.1
Seventh place:Lazio - 62.3
Eighth place:Naples - 58.9
Ninth place:Florence - 58.5
Tenth place:Turin - 54.5
Tenth place:Genoa - 46.3
12 Day:Monza - 44.7
13th place: Udinese - 44.6
14th place: Empoli - 41.1
15th place: Hellas Verona - 39.5
16th place: Lecce - 38.6
17th place: Parma - 37.6
18th place: Venice - 36.8
19th place: Cagliari - 36.5
20th place: Como - 36.2

How does the Opta supercomputer model work?

- Opta's league prediction model estimates the likelihood of a team finishing in each position in the competition. As a result, we can see how successful a team's season is likely to be, whether it's their chances of relegation or winning the title.

- The model estimates the probability of each game's outcome (win, draw or loss) by using betting market odds and Opta's power rankings. The odds and rankings are based on historical and recent team performance.

- The model uses these match result probabilities to take into account the strength of the opposition and simulates the remaining fixtures in the competition thousands of times. By analyzing the results of each simulation, the model can see how often a team finishes at the bottom of each league to make our final prediction.