Arsenal vs Man City Prediction : Arteta vying for third place in direct home win over Pep Guardiola

Arsenal vs Manchester City: Key Stats

• Arsenal have won their last two home league meetings Manchester City and Opta supercomputerGiving them a 52.2% chance of achieving a Tier 3 ranking in a 3-game tournament.
• Erlin Harland has scored four goals in six Premier League games Appeared against Arsenal, while he has scored 20 goals in 19 league games London.
• Manchester City have lost five of their last seven Premier League games immediately following a midweek (W2) European match, including a 1-5 loss to Arsenal in February.

Arsenal have won their last three Premier League home games by a combined score of 9-0. two of those were this season. a 5-0 thrashing of Leeds United was closely followed by the Gunners dispatching Angel Porthcoglou to a 3-0 defeat at Nottingham Forest last week.

They have won three of their four Premier League matches this year Season, conceding zero goals in each of those victories. and after beating Athletic 2-0 UEFA Clubs Tuesday's Champions League match was the only one Mikel played in Arteta's side conceded in all of their 2025-26 matches Lost 1-0 to Liverpool at Anfield. Even so, Dominic fired in a stunning free-kick Soboslai beat David Eid al-Fitr.

As a result, the Gunners' defense is in poor shape. In fact, only Newcastle United (2.1) have conceded fewer goals than expected Arsenal (2.4) are in the division this season.

Arsenal are seeking a fourth consecutive home league win conceding goals since December 2021, while they last won their first victory in the 1960-61 season with three unanswered goals at home. Then reports that it is Manchester's Mighty Manchester City, Pep Guardiola bringing his superstar to the Emirates Stadium Sunday.

After opening the schedule with a 4-0 win over Wolves, City lost their next two games against Tottenham and Brighton.

This marks the first time City have lost two of their first three games since the 2004-05 season, despite being the lowest-scoring Pep Guardiola had collected in each of his first three league games of the season.

City broke their record in last week's derby by beating rivals Manchester United 3-0, with substitute Erling Harland scoring twice in the second half.

Guardiola's side then beat 10-man Napoli 2-0 in the Champions League, and Doku fired home after Harland and Jeremy Giovanni Di Lorenzo were shown red cards.

However, City's concern, aside from the fact that Arsenal have had an extra 48 hours off, is that they lost five of their last seven Premier League midweek (W2) games after the European campaign, including a 1-5 loss to Arsenal in February. Their previous five such defeats came in 46 games over five years (W27 D14).

While Arsenal's defense has been resilient, they are on the rise against the Premier League's expected goal leaders This season, Manchester City have scored eight goals at 8.5 xG. The Arsenal are fifth with 6.5 xG.

Star striker Harland led the City charge. He's the league's top scorer with five goals, and he's also had the most shots (19) and shots on goal (8).

Harland has scored four goals in six Premier League games against Arsenal, while he has scored 20 goals in 19 league games in London. Of the players who have played 1,000+ minutes in away Premier League matches in the capital, Harland has the best ratio of minutes played (every 93 minutes).

Harland's goal against Napoli on Tuesday, a header Phil Foden's subtle assist gave him 49 Champions League goals in just 50 appearances in the competition. That's the number of goals ever to reach a half-century in the competition, joining Van Nistelrooy who previously held the record with 62 goals in 50 games.

At the other end, the goals of Victor Gyökeres are on the scoring charts. The Swedish international already boasts a list of three Premier League goals and he's cool with his chances These are the ones he's coming for.

Gyökeres only had seven shots on goal, three of which were hit accurately. The Arsenal forward owns the third-highest xG total in the league (2.1).

Among players who have scored at least two Premier League goals this term, Gyökeres ranks fifth in shot conversion rate (42.91 TP3T). Harland is 14th with 26.3%.

The Swedish striker was aiming to beat newcomer Manchester City goalkeeper Gianluigi Donnarumma. He made two saves and kept a clean sheet in his Premier League debut in the Manchester derby. The only goalkeepers to keep a clean sheet in their first two starts Citizens are Kasper Schmeichel (August 2007) and Stefan Ortega (May 2023).

Arsenal vs Man City head-to-head

Manchester City are winless in four Premier League matches Arsenal, Guardiola could be on his way to a first win over his rivals without a top-flight campaign for five matches.

Arteta could also become the first manager ever to take charge five times The league is unbeaten against Guardiola.

City have lost their last two league games to Arsenal, as many as their previous 14 (W7 D5 L2). This is their longest away defeat to the Gunners since April 2009 (4 in a row).

Arsenal have won two of the last four league meetings Manchester City (D2), as many as their previous 22 (D5 L15). This The Gunners could win consecutive league games against the Citizens for the first time since December 2015 .

Arsenal vs Manchester City Predictions

Even with Arsenal's recent excellent record against Manchester City Emirates, it's a bit surprising to see the price of the Opta The supercomputer likes the Gunners here.

Arsenal tops the model simulation at 52.2%, while City's probability of winning is 23.4%, slightly lower than the 24.4% chance of a draw.