Chelsea vs Liverpool Predictions

Chelsea vs Liverpool stats: key insights

• groundOpta supercomputerThe figures for Liverpool, who have just become Premier League champions, are surprisingly underdogs, with their probability of winning standing at 31.91 TP3T.
• Chelsea have 17 points from their last eight Premier League matches, compared to nine points from their previous 10.
• After winning 2-1 in October, Liverpool are looking to complete their first league double over Chelsea since winning the title in 2019-20.

A week after winning the Premier League title with a 5-1 thrashing of Tottenham Hotspur, Liverpool will take on another London club on Sunday.

The newly crowned champions may be heading to Stamford Bridge with a few hangovers, but Arne Slaughter's side should still be confident of securing another win in a sensational top-flight campaign.

Chelsea will be looking for a win to boost their hopes of a top-five finish and Champions League qualification, but that is easier said than done.

This will be Chelsea's seventh Premier League match against a team that has already been crowned champions, the most of any team. They have won just one of their previous six games (D2 L3), a 1-0 defeat to Manchester United in the 2012-13 season, while their one loss was a 5-3 reverse to Liverpool in July 2020 at Anfield.

However, Enzo Maresca's side have picked up their form in recent weeks. Chelsea have picked up 17 points from their last eight Premier League games (W5 D2 L1) after picking up just nine points from their previous 10 games (W2 D3 L5).

They also beat Djurgården 4-1 on Thursday to put one foot firmly in the UEFA Conference League final.

Maresca has left with young players this season and perhaps that lack of experience is why the Blues were seen as potential title contenders before Christmas.

Chelsea have yet to use any player over the age of 27 in a Premier League game this season, the longest run of 34 games in Premier League history. The last longest was April/May 2000 when Liverpool only won 6 in a row.

But the scale of the task facing Chelsea should not be underestimated.

Liverpool have not lost any of their last 20 Premier League matches in May (W16 D4), although their last defeat was against Chelsea in 2018 at Stamford Bridge.

The Reds are averaging 2.41 points per game in the league this season. In his eight full seasons in charge, Sloter's predecessor Jürgen Klopp only had three seasons in which he averaged more points per game than Liverpool have done so far this season - the 2021-22 season (2.42), the 2018-19 season (2.55), and the 2019-20 season when they won the title (2.60) ).

Slotter is the fifth Premier League manager to win the UEFA Cup in his first season, not including the inaugural season. He follows in the footsteps of Jose Mourinho (Chelsea, 2004-05), Carlo Ancelotti (Chelsea, 2009-10), Manuel Pellegrini (Manchester City, 2013-14) and Antonio Conte (Chelsea, 2016-17).

Liverpool have scored in their last 30 Premier League games since losing 0-1 at home to Nottingham Forest in September. The only other team to have scored for longer in a single season was Arsenal in the 2001-02 season, who scored in all 38 games.

While the contributions of the likes of Alexis Mac Allister, Luis Diaz, Cody Gakpo, Dominic Soboslai, Trent Alexander-Arnold, Virgil van Dyke and Alisson will not go unnoticed, for much of the season it has been the Mohamed Salah show.

With 28 league goals and 18 assists in 2024-25, Salah needs just one goal or assist to equal the Premier League record for goals involved in a season (34 goals and 13 assists in two seasons) held by Andrew Cole in 1993-94 and Alan Shearer in 1994-95.

He needs just one more goal to equal Drogba's record for goals scored by a player aged 30 or over (29) for Chelsea in the 2009-10 season.

The Egyptian couldn't get a foothold during his time at Chelsea, although the Blues have the form to let players go and then see them become world-class players elsewhere (Kevin De Bruyne, anyone?). However, Salah has shown Chelsea what they were missing. In 14 league games against his old club, he's contributed nine goals, scored five and dished out four assists.

Of course, that's not to say Chelsea is shy about bringing in offensive talent.

Nicholas Jackson scored the winning goal against Everton last weekend to end his goalless streak and added two more in Europe on Thursday night, while Cole Palmer always has the ability to work wonders despite not having scored a league goal since January 15th.

Meanwhile, only three players have created more chances in the Premier League this season than Enzo Fernandez (73). The only Argentines to have created more goals in the season record (since the 2003-04 season) are Emiliano Buendia of Norwich in the 2019-20 season (83) and Erik Lamela of Tottenham Hotspur in the 2015-16 season (75).

Chelsea vs Liverpool Head to Head

After winning 2-1 in October, Liverpool are looking to complete their first league double over Chelsea since winning the title in 2019-20.

Slaughter could become the third Reds boss, after Bill Shankly and Roy Evans, to win his first two league games against Chelsea in charge of the club.

Chelsea are winless in their last 10 meetings with Liverpool in all competitions (D7 L3), only once, and haven't won against the Reds since (11 from 1985 to 1990).

Chelsea vs Liverpool Prediction

Opta supercomputerActually backing the Blues in this one, although we expect it to be a close game with a 24.8% chance of a draw.

Chelsea topped the data-driven simulation at 43.31 TP3T, while Liverpool won 31.91 TP3T.

For what it's worth, Slaughter did say in his pre-game press conference on Friday that some players who haven't seen much playing time this season will play in their final four games, though he ruled out massive changes.