Manchester City vs Aston Villa Predictions

Manchester City vs Aston Villa stats: key insights

• Manchester City in Opta supercomputerThe data-driven simulation of this game happens to have 50% at the top of the list.
• Aston Villa have won their last three Premier League away games, keeping a clean sheet in each. Their last longer away winning streak was between November and February of the 2008-09 season (7).
• City have won their last 14 Premier League home games against Villa, scoring at least two goals in each of the last 13.

In the final stages of the 2024-25 Premier League season, many teams don't have much to bet on, with Liverpool virtually confirmed as champions, Arsenal likely to finish as runners-up, and the three teams promoted from the Championship heading straight back into the relegation zone.

All the drama seems to be over a Champions League spot, and the Premier League has secured a fifth.

This seems to boil down to the following: three of Aston Villa, Chelsea, Manchester City, Newcastle and Nottingham Forest will secure a Champions League spot next season, while two of them will not.

As a result, Tuesday night's game between Manchester City and Aston Villa, who are currently separated by just one point, has huge implications. A loss for either side in this match would be a major blow to their hopes of competing in Europe's top flight next season.

City have been inconsistent all season, but they seem to have found some form late in the season, having lost just one of their last nine matches and with Guardiola's lineup choices slightly more consistent. Despite this, they are almost unrecognizable from the team that won a historic fourth consecutive top-flight title just 11 months ago.

On the other hand, Aston Villa are arguably the most in-form team in the Premier League, having won 10 of their last 11 matches in all competitions, and 5 in a row in the top flight.

It would have been understandable if their confidence had been dented by being knocked out of this season's Champions League by impressive Paris Saint-Germain, but they bounced back immediately after beating Newcastle 4-1 last time out, a team Newcastle themselves would have wanted to beat in the league.

Villa will want to focus on their latest form for their visit to the Etihad Stadium rather than historical precedent. They have won their last three league games away from home and have not conceded a single goal; since a seven-game winning streak that ended in February 2009, they have not won four or more consecutive games on the road.

Their record at City doesn't bode well, as they have lost 14 consecutive Premier League games, conceding at least twice in each of their last 13 trips.

The only team in Premier League history to have lost consecutive away games to their opponents is Newcastle, who have lost their last 16 away games against Manchester City.

The Etihad is certainly not the stronghold it once was, especially when it comes to City's ability to stop the goal scoring potential of their opponents. City have conceded 21 goals at home in the league this season, with the last time they conceded more at home dating back to the 2003-04 season (24), their first season since saying goodbye to Maine Road.

But that doesn't mean they've lost their ability to score goals. In fact, City have scored 36 goals in 11 home games in all competitions in 2025, an average of 3.3 goals per game. If that number stays the same throughout the calendar year, the club will be second only to 1898, 1895 and 2019 in terms of goals per game at home.

It's no coincidence that the year began with the acquisition of Omar Marmoush from Eintracht Frankfurt. The Egyptian scored six goals in six home games for Manchester City, an average of one goal every 81 minutes.

While Marmouche is City's de facto striker in the absence of the injured Erlin Harland, rivals Villa's position in the center looks even more uncertain.

Ollie Watkins, who has made just two starts in Villa's last seven games in all competitions, has not hidden his frustration at losing his place in the squad to on-loan Marcus Rashford for the two-legged Champions League clash against Paris Saint-Germain.

Watkins returned to the starting lineup against Newcastle, setting up his offense with a goal and an assist, bringing the number of goals he has been involved in all competitions to 29 all season. He also hit the bar of the goal twice.

Watkins has been directly involved in 48 of Villa's away goals in the Premier League, with 34 goals and 14 assists; the only other player to be involved in 50 or more away goals for Villa in a competition is Gabriel Agbonlahor (40 goals, 19 assists).

Manchester City vs Aston Villa Head-to-Head

Manchester City have won their last 14 Premier League home games against Aston Villa, scoring at least two goals in each of the last 13. Their last defeat came in April 2007 under Stuart Pearce.

Aston Villa have won two of their last three league games against City, as many as their previous 23. One of those wins came in the December reverse fixture; Villa have not completed a league double over City since the 1962-63 season.

Manchester City vs Aston Villa Prediction

Manchester City are expected to win this match against Aston Villa.

While there isn't much difference between these two teams on paper at the moment, the Opta supercomputerStill see Manchester City as big favorites here, with the club leading half of the 10,000 data-driven simulations.

Villa take all three points in a simulation of 26.81 TP3T, while the likelihood of a draw is 23.11 TP3T.