Premier League Round 33 Match Preview

Opta supercomputerProviding an up-to-date selection of match predictions ahead of next weekend's Premier League season 2024-25, the league table is now firmly in place as we head into the final stages of the season.

Liverpool are 13 points clear of Arsenal at the top of the table with just six games remaining, while Ipswich Town are 14 points behind at the other end of the table despite some battling performances in recent weeks.

Race Day 33 will be spread out over Saturday, Sunday and Monday in a bumper weekend.

Aston Villa will face Newcastle United in a five-match series on Saturday, with both teams pushing for a place in the Champions League.

Arsenal will be away to Ipswich on Sunday, which is also when Liverpool play struggling Leicester City away from home as the Reds look to move one step closer to the Premier League title.

The round will end on Monday night when Tottenham Hotspur host Nottingham Forest, who are desperate to bounce back after losing their last two games.

Before what looks set to be an interesting set of Premier League matches, let's take a look at the Opta supercomputer's match predictions.

Premier League Predictions Match Week 33: Quick Hits

• Aston Villa have a slight advantage over in-form Newcastle ahead of a crucial clash at Villa Park.
• The Opta supercomputer has named Manchester United and West Ham United as healthy favorites for their respective home games this weekend.
• Arsenal, Liverpool and Manchester City are all backed to win away from home this week, with Arne Slot's league leaders the most confident MD 33 pick for our prediction model.

The two teams still holding out hope for European qualification in Saturday's 3 p.m. quadrupleheader atBrentfordrespond in singingBrighton Gtech Community Stadium vs.

After four consecutive wins between February and March, Brighton are winless in their last four top-flight games (D2 L2).

However, Brentford have not won any of their eight home games in the Premier League (D3 L5), which is the longest they have waited for a win at Gtech.

With neither team inspiring much confidence at the moment, the Opta prediction models have been struggling to separate them.

Brentford's probability of winning is 38.71 TP3T, while Brighton's is 35.41 TP3T, and 25.91 TP3T of matches simulate reaching a draw. This is one of the three games most likely to end in a draw this weekend.

In another such game.crystal palaceHopefully, againstBournemouth, UKTime to recover from two tough losses.

Crystal Palace have won their last three home games but have failed to win or even score in their last three top-flight meetings with the Cherries (D1 L2).

Bournemouth have not won in their last 10 league games in London (D5 L5) and their last such victory came in December 2023 against Crystal Palace (2-0).

Expect it to be tight; Crystal Palace top the pre-match simulation at 39.2% and Bournemouth at 34.9%. The draw is also a strong contender at 25.9%.

Manchester CityAt Goodison Park againstEverton soccer team, continues to compete for Champions League qualification.

Since David Moyes' first game back in charge of Everton on January 15, only Liverpool and Arsenal (1 each) have lost fewer Premier League games than the Toffees (2) - who have 21 points (W5 D6) from 13 games in charge of Everton this season.

However, Everton have just a 27.1% chance of beating Pep Guardiola's side, while the odds of keeping them in a draw are 25.1% - they have drawn their last four games at Goodison and they have never drawn five consecutive home games.

City scored five goals in last week's 5-2 win over Crystal Palace to take them to 102 in all competitions for the 2024-25 season, their 12th consecutive 100+ goal season, the longest streak of any top-flight team in history.

Pep Guardiola's side need the points more than Everton do and this is reflected in their Opta Supercomputer 47.8% probability of winning.

At the London Stadium.Southamptonplay againstWest Ham UnitedThe attempt to avoid a record number of Premier League points in the competition continues, with the already relegated Saints needing a win to overtake Derby County's 11 points from the 2007-08 season.

Southampton have lost 26 of their 32 Premier League games this season, which is the most they have ever lost in any season in their history. Their current rate of games conceded is 81%, the highest of any team in a top-flight season ever.

West Ham United's own poor form could give caretaker Saints boss Simon Rask some hope. The Hammers have gone five league games without a win (D2 L3) and last went longer without a win in their first six games in 2024.

Since Graham Potter's arrival in January, only Southampton (111) and Leicester City (112) have had fewer shots on target than West Ham United (114) in the Premier League.

However, our prediction model gives the Saints a win probability of just 18.41 TP3T compared to West Ham United's 60.91 TP3T, making the Hammers the most likely home winners this weekend.

Aston Villa (41.4%)respond in singingNewcastle (33.8%)Both hope to continue their push for a top-five finish when they meet late in Saturday's race.

Villa have won their last four league games, conceding just one goal. However, they have lost five of their last six games against Newcastle (W1).

The Magpies, who moved up to third place after Wednesday's 5-0 thrashing of Crystal Palace, have won eight away games this season, with only Liverpool (35 points) and Arsenal (28) having more away points than them (27).

Newcastle have won their last three league games against Villa, scoring at least three goals each time.

However, the Opta supercomputer still gave Villa a slight edge in what looked like it could be an entertaining game.

In Sunday's game.Fulham (34.6%)will face their opponents in the other gameChelsea (39.5%), our prediction model expects this game to be close.

The Blues are one of five teams vying for the three Champions League spots between third and fifth place, while Fulham are six points behind the Blues and may need a win here if they want to keep their hopes of a European spot alive.

Cole Palmer has shown much-needed signs of life in recent weeks, with the Chelsea midfielder dishing out an assist in each of his last two starts.

If he scores again in this game, he will reach 20 Premier League assists in just 65 games, making him the third-fastest player at the club to do so, behind creative players Cesc Fabregas (47) and Juan Mata (49).

While Chelsea has a slightly higher probability of winning at 25.91 TP3T, there is no other game this week that is more likely to end in a draw.

After beating Real Madrid.Arsenal (name)(64.21 TP3T) is expected to get the win, which would postpone Liverpool's road trip to strugglingIpswich Town(15.1%) when the championship was celebrated.

The Gunners are flying high after reaching the Champions League semi-finals, unbeaten in their last 14 league games against Ipswich (W11 D3) and unbeaten in their last four.

Arsenal have won each of their last 10 top-flight games against teams in the relegation zone by a combined score of 30-2, with their last loss coming in February 2023 against Everton.

Ipswich's home form is nothing to shout about. They lost all six of their home games in 2025, equal to the losses they suffered in 2023 and 2024 combined.

Manchester United Football ClubAt Old Trafford againstWolves (sports)of the tournament are favorites to win the title, although the visitors have won their last four league games.

A win for Wolves in this game would put them level with Manchester United on 38 points. It's a remarkable turnaround as they were 13 points behind the Red Devils before Vito Pereira's first game in charge on December 22nd.

But United tend to do well in this fixture as they have lost just one of their last 13 home games against Wolves (W9 D3).

According to the supercomputer, Ruben Amorim's team has a whopping 47.21 TP3T chance of winning, while the Wolves have a 27.41 TP3T likelihood.

Leicester Citywill play host toLiverpool. Liverpool.are likely to win the league title this Sunday, although they will be relying on Ipswich to beat Arsenal earlier in the day.

If this does happen, it will be the sixth time a team has won the top flight title with five games left. Liverpool's victory in the 2019-20 season was the last one, winning with a record seven games left to play.

Either way, you'd be a brave man to bet on the Reds winning big against lowly Leicester City, whose relegation would be confirmed with a win.

Unsurprisingly, the supercomputer predicts a Leicester City loss as the likely outcome. The Foxes top the data-driven match simulation by just 10.9%, while Liverpool's win probability is a whopping 73.2%, making them the most likely team to win in MD 33.

Leicester City have won just two of their last 13 league games against Liverpool (D1 L10), with both of those victories coming in consecutive 2021 home games (3-1 in February,1-0 in December).

For most of the season, theNottingham Forestare all firmly in the hunt for a Champions League spot when they play on Monday againstTottenham Hotspur (soccer team)When they do, they may find themselves outside the top five.

Forest have lost their last two league games, having previously won three in a row. Under Nuno Espírito Santo, they have only suffered three consecutive defeats once, in February and March last season.

The omens haven't been good for Forest ahead of this trip to North London, with Tottenham having won their last three home games against Tricky Trees.

However, Spurs have lost 16 of their last 20 Premier League matches against teams that started the day in the top half of the table (W3 D1).

Our prediction model predicts a close game, with Tottenham Hotspur slightly favored to win at 39.2% and Forest at 36.3%.The odds of a draw are 24.5%, which may not be the worst result for Nuno, who have a slightly milder fixture list against Forest in May.