League One 2024 - 2025 Season Predictions: March Opta Supercomputer Data Update

With only a few weeks left in the season, we decided it was time to take a look at the Opta supercomputer's updated League One predictions and analyze some of the underlying data that supports them.

This is being touted as one of the strongest League One squads in recent years going into the 2024-25 season, with giants such as Birmingham City, Huddersfield and Bolton Wanderers expected to be fighting for promotion.

England's third tier didn't disappoint, with Birmingham leading all the way, followed by a number of expected teams and some less unexpected ones battling it out for the top spot.

With 8 to 10 games left in the season for each team, we thought it was time to ask the Opta supercomputerWhat is expected to happen between now and the final whistle for the last round of the tournament in early May.

promotion match

Relegation from the Championship was one of the darkest days in the history of Birmingham City Football Club. However, things are always darkest before the dawn.

The club, co-owned by NFL legend Tom Brady, have said they intend to invest heavily over the summer, including a frankly eye-watering £10million transfer fee reportedly paid for striker Jay Stansfield.

That investment has paid off, with the former Fulham striker scoring 16 goals in 27 league games this season, as the Blues appear to be heading for promotion under Chris Davies. They are top of the League One table with 83 points from 36 games, 12 points clear of third-placed Wycombe Wanderers with a game less, and are almost certain to return to the Championship next season.

We say "almost certainly" because Birmingham is in the top two of all 10,000 simulations conducted by the Opta supercomputer. They still have to actually do the work to get there, but it's going to take an almighty meltdown from here on in. They are also nine points clear of second-placed Wrexham, having won the simulation at 99.9% with two games to spare.

They are also on course to finish the campaign with 104 points, according to the supercomputer, which would break the Wolves' League One season record of 103 points from the 2013-14 season.

The race for second place and the other automatic promotion spot is far more interesting. Wrexham's dominant 1-0 win over Stockport County on Saturday took them back into second place, three points ahead of Wycombe, despite having played one more game. Phil Parkinson's side finished second and progressed to their third consecutive Supercomputer Simulation Game at 50.7%, with Wycombe ahead of them at 45.7%.

The Chairboys lost manager Matt Bloomfield for the season in January joining Luton Town with Mike Dodds replacing him. Wycombe have not won back-to-back league games since ending an eight-game winning streak in November.

The only teams with a chance of finishing in the top two are Charlton Athletic (2.51 TP3T), Stockport (1.01 TP3T), Huddersfield (0.31 TP3T) and Reading (0.041 TP3T).

Play-off draw

The play-offs were even more competitive, with at least one different team advancing to the play-offs in 10,000 simulations on the supercomputer.

With Wrexham having a 50.7% chance of automatic promotion, there is a 49.3% chance that they will have to settle for the play-offs, while Wycombe have a 54.3% chance of needing to make the long trip up to Division Two.

Charlton have been in fine form under Nathan Jones, winning 10 of their last 14 games (D2 L2), which gives them an 84.1% chance of reaching the play-offs. However, they will be hoping that Saturday's surprise 0-3 loss away to Peterborough United was just a blip on the radar.

Stockport still have a 78.3% chance of securing a play-off spot despite losing at Wrexham. Dave Challinor's side have also had a good run-in, although they will want to confirm the situation before they travel to Wycombe on the final day.

Huddersfield's run in League One hasn't gone as well as they'd hoped and they recently sacked manager Michael Duff after losing seven of their eleven consecutive matches, although a 5-1 thrashing of Crawley Town last time out should give the team hope of a strong finish. The Terriers have a 52.6% chance of making the play-offs.

Bolton have also recently changed manager with Steven Schumacher replacing Ian Evatt. They have work to do to get into the play-offs, only finishing in the top six in the simulated game at 36.4% and after consecutive defeats to Bristol Rovers and Stockport, they need to improve quickly to do so.

Reading deserve credit for the fact that they could still end up with promotion despite the chaotic scenes off the pitch which will hopefully be resolved soon. Since arriving in December, Noel Hunt has led them into play-off contention and made the Royals hard to beat. They are unbeaten in their last 11 league games (W4 D6) and have managed to lock up a play-off spot in a simulated game at 28.8%.

Leyton Orient are in with a chance of reaching the play-offs despite their recent poor form. Richie Wellens' side put themselves in a very strong position by winning 12 of their 15 games between early December and mid-February, but since then they have lost five of their six matches and are five points off the play-off zone. They recovered to finish in the top six at just 14.4% in simulated games.

Blackpool (1.71 TP3T) are the only team to reach the play-offs with more than 0.11 TP3T going into the play-offs.

relegation battle

Only Birmingham promotion is more predictable than a relegation battle, at least for some teams.

With nine games to go, things were looking bleak for Shrewsbury Town. the appointment of Gareth Ainsworth in November led to an initial bounce back with a 3-2 win over Birmingham, but that didn't last. consecutive victories over Mansfield Town and Rotherham United at the start of February also heralded a resurgence, but they took two points from their next eight games to leave them at the bottom. took two points, which left them bottom of the table.

Shrewsbury are 14 points from safety and the Opta supercomputer sees them downgrade in a 99.8% simulation.

They are closely followed by Cambridge United, who have also changed managers, with Neil Harris taking over in February, but their changes haven't had much of an impact on their hopes either. They won consecutive victories over Stockport and Crawley but since then they have picked up just one point from five games, leaving them just 12 points from safety with just eight games remaining. Cambridge are down at 99.1% in simulated games.

Next up is Crawley, another team with a new owner, or an old one, depending on how you look at it. Scott Lindsey left Broadfield Stadium for MK Dons in September but was sacked just five months later. Crawley parted company with Rob Elliott a few weeks later and Lindsey returned just last week. He won 1-0 at Bristol Rovers on Saturday but still has a lot of work to do.

With eight games remaining, Crawley is nine points from safety, and the Red Devils are back in Division II after just one season back in Division III in the 97.4% simulation.

After winning just two of their first 25 games, Burton Albion have recovered under Gary Bowyer, who joined in December and has won six of their last 13 games, losing just three in that time. They are still six points behind Bristol Rovers and Northampton, who are right behind them, but both have a game in hand. They are down by 76.0%, which means they have almost a one in four chance of survival.

Bristol Rovers' poor result at Crawley on Saturday was followed by a 5-0 thrashing at Lincoln City, but they still fancy their chances of staying up.Iñigo Calderón's side succumbed to just a fourth-bottom finish in the simulated game at 16.7%.

Northampton have the same number of points as Rovers (42), but the supercomputer sees their chances dropping by just 7.0%, possibly because it's a slightly easier grind on paper. Kevin Nolan's side have played the bottom three in their last eight games, while Bristol Rovers must still face Birmingham and Wrexham.

Mansfield have just a 2.4% chance of going straight back into League Two, while Exeter City (0.6%) and Wigan Athletic (0.5%) may now feel safe, as does Rotherham (0.3%) despite losing seven of their last eleven games.

Peterborough's 3-0 win over Charlton on Saturday also boosted their survival hopes considerably, with only 0.2% sims now relegated, while Stevenage are only 0.1% sims into the relegation zone.

Table of expected points

The Opta Expected Score model simulates the number of goals each team will score in each game based on the expected goals per shot (xG) value. It then uses the simulated number of goals to determine the outcome of the match (win/draw/lose). Each match is then simulated 10,000 times. Each team can then calculate their expected points based on their simulated percentage of wins/draws/losses in each match.

It's certainly not an exact science, as the expected goals statistic doesn't include a lot of factors, such as the state of the game and dangerous periods of possession that don't lead to shots on goal. Nonetheless, it's still a decent barometer of team performance. We can use it to see which teams' league standings don't reflect their performance completely accurately.

While Birmingham do dominate League One, they may be a little lucky to be so far ahead. While they are also ahead in the expected table, they are only 0.2 points ahead of the nine point lead they currently enjoy. Davies' side have actually scored 15 points more than they should have, which may be a testament to how effective they have been.

Wycombe are also where they expected to be but are said to have overachieved by just over 3 points, whilst Stockport are in third place and are actually 2.1 points below their expected total. Charlton's rise is perhaps to be expected, with the Addicks performing 3.4 points below their expected total.

Wrexham are considered the most over-achieving team. They may be second in the actual table, which is of course important, but they are only ninth in the expected table and have almost 20 points more than they should have.

The situation is similar at the other end of the spectrum, with only one of the actual bottom four in the expected bottom four, and none of the bottom three clearly deserving to be there.

Cambridge, Shrewsbury and Crawley all have more expected points than Exeter, Northampton and Bristol Rovers, who should clearly be the teams currently struggling. The fact that Cambridge are said to be 14.6 points below them is not ideal when you're fighting relegation.

Cambridge have more expected points than Reading, which is remarkable considering there are 15 places and 29 points in the actual table.

So maybe when it comes to League One, we should expect the unexpected.