Southampton vs Liverpool Predictions

Southampton vs Liverpool by the numbers: key insights

• Liverpool in Opta supercomputer's pre-game simulation resulted in a 69.51 TP3T victory.
• Mohamed Salah has been directly involved in 67% of Liverpool's Premier League goals this season, which is the highest percentage of any player in any Premier League team in the 2024-25 season.
• Southampton could become the eighth team in English top-flight history to start a campaign with 10 losses in 12 games or fewer.

Top and bottom of the table will visit struggling Southampton in the Premier League on Sunday.

Arne Slaughter's side were five points clear at the top of the Premier League table ahead of this matchday. That came after they beat Aston Villa 2-0 in their last game before this month's international break.

Mohamed Salah's last-minute goal ended that victory, and he also unintentionally assisted Darwin Nunez's first-half goal at Anfield. That gives the Egyptian eight goals and six assists for the season.

Salah has been directly involved in 67% of Liverpool's 21 Premier League goals this season, the highest percentage of any player in the 2024-25 season. Only Southampton great Matt Le Tissier had a higher percentage of goals or assists in 1993-94 (69% - 34/49).

Salah has also scored and assisted 35 times in the same game in the Premier League (including four times this season), just one goal short of Wayne Rooney's record of 36 appearances for Manchester United.

Southampton are also well aware of the Liverpool striker's prowess, considering Salah has been directly involved in 11 goals (seven goals, four assists) in 11 top-flight games against them.

In addition to Salah's one-man record conquest, Liverpool have won nine of Sloter's 11 league games in charge so far. Another win here would see the Dutchman become tied for the fastest manager to reach 10 wins at the start of his Premier League career (12 games), alongside Hiddink in May 2009 and Carlo Ancelotti in November 2009 (both at Chelsea).

In stark contrast to their luck, last season's Championship play-off winners are at the bottom of the table, four points adrift of safety after their last 0-2 loss to Wolves.

Russell Martin's side have lost nine of their 11 Premier League games this season (W1 D1) and could become just the eighth team in English top-flight history to reach 10 defeats in 12 or fewer games to start a season.

Seven previous teams have been relegated and Martin will know that his side will have to progress in all areas to stop the rot, especially up front. Southampton have scored the fewest goals in the Premier League this season (7), while only Crystal Palace (5.1%) have converted fewer shots than the Saints (6.2%). Southampton have also only hit the target with 30.1% of their shots this season (34/113), the lowest rate in the league.

That said, Southampton have lost just one of their last eight Premier League home games against the top-ranked team on the day (W2 D5). They are also unbeaten in their last four such matches (W2 D2), including a 1-0 win over Liverpool in January 2021, and since a 1-0 loss in May 2018 to Manchester City.

Martin is hoping for a boost from the return of Will Smallbone, Ross Stewart and Ryan Fraser, but Aaron Ramsdale and Jan Bednarek will miss out due to injury.

Visiting Liverpool's Trent Alexander-Arnold is likely to miss out after sustaining a hamstring injury against Villa in a game that is still too early for Alisson, Federico Chiesa and Diogo Jota. However, Javi Elliott has a chance of making a comeback for the trip to the south coast after returning to training during the international break.

Southampton vs Liverpool Head to Head

Southampton have won just one of their last 14 Premier League games against Liverpool (D3 L10) and that was a 1-0 home win in January 2021 thanks to an early goal from Danny Ince.

However, their last meeting was a thriller that came after a 4-4 draw in May 2023 on the road.

Liverpool conceded as many goals in that game as they had in their previous six visits to St Mary's combined, although given the Reds' form it's hard to imagine a repeat here.

Southampton vs Liverpool Predictions

The Opta supercomputer would be hard pressed to see any result other than a Liverpool victory - a massive 69.5% for the visitors in 10,000 pre-match simulations.

In the same data-driven simulation game, Southampton's chances are rated at a paltry 12.71 TP3T, with a draw more likely at 17.81 TP3T.

Slaughter's side are now the favorites to win the Premier League title, achieving top-flight glory in Opta's 60.9% end-of-season projection. At the other end of the scale, Southampton sit bottom of the league in a simulation of around 67.8%.