Brighton vs Manchester City Predictions

Brighton vs Manchester City stats: key insights

• Manchester City are the favorites in this game.Opta supercomputer's pre-game simulated winning percentage of 51.31 TP3T.
• City's 32-game unbeaten run in the Premier League came to an end in their last match against Bournemouth.
• Brighton dropped 10 points from the Premier League title this season, just four fewer than they had in the entire 2023-24 season.

Pep Guardiola is looking to lead Manchester City back on track in Saturday's Premier League visit to Brighton.

The defending champions have been beaten by Tottenham Hotspur in their last three games, by Bournemouth in the league and by Sporting Portugal in the Champions League.

They only lost back-to-back league games in December 2016, December 2018 and October 2023 under Guardiola.

One concern is that City have conceded the first goal in 5 of their 10 Premier League games this season. It's the first time since the 2006-07 season that they've reached the halfway mark in the first 10 games (also 5) of a season.

However, Guardiola may blame some of these problems on injury issues. John Stones, Jack Grealish, Oscar Bobb, Ruben Diaz and Rodney are all long-term absentees.

City can still call on Phil Foden, who scored more goals against Brighton than against any other opponent in the Premier League, and against the Seagulls he scored eight goals in just seven starts.

The England midfielder scored against Sporting Portugal in midweek but has failed to score in any of his seven Premier League games this season. It is his longest run without scoring in the top flight since May 2019 to March 2020 (15 attempts).

Hosts Brighton face another tough challenge on Saturday as they aim to bounce back from last weekend's 1-2 loss to Liverpool.

That loss left Brighton eighth in the table after another familiar defeat. They have dropped 10 points from the Premier League title this season, just four points off their entire 2023-24 season.

In fact, both of Brighton's losses this season have come after they took the lead (4-2 against Chelsea and 2-1 against Liverpool) and they will be keen to make amends at home.

Brighton are unbeaten in five home games this season (W2 D3) - only in the 1982-83 season have they not lost at home since the start of the top flight (7).

Just like the visitors, Brighton have been struggling with injuries. Solly March, James Milner and Adam Webster will miss this game at the American Express Stadium. However, Matt O'Reilly, Yasin Ayari, Joao Pedro, Yankuba Minter and Lewis Dunk are all likely to feature if they pass their final fitness tests in what is destined to be an interesting encounter.

Brighton vs Manchester City Head-to-Head

Pep Guardiola fancies City's chances of ending their run of three straight defeats in all competitions.

City have taken 37 of the 42 points available against Brighton in the Premier League (W12 D1 L1), although the only points they have dropped have been at American Express Stadium (3-2 in May 2021,1-1 in May 2023).

Kevin De Bruyne and Julian Alvarez both scored and Foden netted twice in the last meeting between the two sides, which City won 4-0 away last April.

In fact, Brighton have conceded more goals against Manchester City than against any other opponent in the Premier League (40), failing to keep a clean sheet in one of their 14 such games.

Brighton vs Manchester City Predictions

The Opta supercomputer wobbled in Saturday's away win as City scored 51.3% in its 10,000th pre-match simulation.

Brighton won a simulated game dominated by the same data at 25.2%, while the draw occurred in another simulated game at 23.5%.