Manchester United vs Brentford Prediction

Manchester United vs Brentford stats: key insights

• Opta supercomputerThe given probability of United winning is 54.3%.
• United have won their last five home games against Brentford.
• Thomas Frank's next loss will be his 50th in the Premier League.

Erik ten Hag is alive to fight another day, but anything other than a positive result when United host Brentford on Saturday is sure to leave the Dutchman barely holding down his job.

United's decision-makers reportedly met during the international break after a difficult start to the season, although Ten Hagar remains in his post.

A draw against Aston Villa ensured that United had some response to the 3-0 hammering of Tottenham Hotspur in their last home game. The previous league game at Old Trafford was also a 3-0 loss, with Liverpool winning 3-0.

Saturday's clash pits 14th (Manchester United) against 10th (Brentford). The Red Devils have the worst gap between the number of goals scored (5) and the number of goals expected (11.1) in the Premier League this season, netting around six fewer goals than they were expected to score. They also have the biggest gap between the number of goals conceded (8) and the number of goals expected (11.5), with 3-4 fewer than expected, suggesting that things could have been much worse for them had it not been for the efforts of Andre Onana.

United are averaging 0.7 goals per game in the Premier League this season (5 in 7 games), while averaging 3 goals per game in all other competitions this season (12 goals in 7 games) - although this is clearly exaggerated by the 0-7 loss to third tier side Barnsley in the EFL Cup.

Ten Hagar's side have won just one of their last six Premier League games (D2 L3) and have failed to score in their last three. The last time they went four league games without scoring was in April 1989; a truly awful start to the 2024-25 season.

That said, they have reason to be optimistic. Brentford have lost all three of their Premier League away games this season, and the last time they started the league campaign with four consecutive defeats away from home was in the 1961-62 season, when they lost their first nine games in the Third Division.

Meanwhile, Thomas Frank's next defeat will be his 50th in the Premier League, which is more than any other manager in the Premier League since the first game in August 2021.

Bryan Mbeumo has been an outstanding performer for the Bees. He has scored six goals in seven Premier League games this season and has scored a goal in his last three appearances. His next goal or assist will make him the first Brentford player to be involved in 50 Premier League goals (currently 28 goals, 21 assists).

Christian Eriksen is playing for Brentford on his return to action in early 2022, just seven months after he went down at Euro 2020. The United midfielder has come in for some criticism of late, but he has been involved in six goals (three goals, three assists) in his last five games. In fact, only Alejandro Gancho (seven) has been involved in more goals for United this season than the Dane.

Brentford could welcome Mathias Jensen back from a calf injury that kept him out for over a month, while Mikkel Darmsgaard is a doubt after pulling out of the national team. Aside from that, Frank is still without several long-term absentees, including Aaron Hickey, Rico Henry, Jon Vissar and Igor Thiago.

Ten Hagar has a number of injury concerns of his own. Kopi Menu pulled out of the England national team squad and will be out for a couple of weeks, while Manuel Ugarte faces a late fitness test after suffering a hamstring injury away to Uruguay. Lennie Yolo is still weeks away from making his debut, with both Terrell Malacia and Luke Shaw still out, and this game is too early for Harry Maguire and Mason Mount. However, Ganacho and Amad Diallo are both in contention after pulling out of their respective national teams, while Noussel Mazraoui surprisingly passed his fitness check less than two weeks after undergoing minor heart surgery.

Manchester United vs Brentford Head-to-Head

United have won their last five home games against Brentford by a combined score of 13-2, with their last defeat coming in February 1937.

Brentford won four of their first six league meetings with United between 1933 and 1937 (D1 L1), whilst Brentford have won just one of their last ten matches against the Red Devils (D2 L7).

That victory was a memorable 4-0 home win in August 2022 over Ten Hagar's United.

Four of the five goals scored in the two meetings between the two sides in the Premier League last season came in second-half added time (three for United, one for Brentford).

Manchester United vs Brentford Prediction

Considering their poor record at Old Trafford, it's no surprise that Brentford are underdogs in this game.

Prior to this game, the Bees topped the Opta Supercomputer simulation by just 23.61 TP3T.

Meanwhile, United has a 54.31 TP3T chance of winning and a 22.21 TP3T chance of drawing.

Manchester United vs Brentford predicted lineups