Bournemouth vs Chelsea Prediction

Bournemouth vs Chelsea stats: key insights

• The Opta supercomputer sees Chelsea as favorites to return to London with three points, with a pre-match simulation of 45.21 TP3T.
• Bournemouth and Chelsea have scored a joint-highest four second-half goals in the Premier League this season. All four of Bournemouth's shots came in the last five minutes of the game (from the 86th minute onwards), while all four of Chelsea's shots came in their only previous away game against Wolves.
• Chelsea's Premier League winning percentage of 61.11 TP3T in August was the highest of any month except June/July, while it dropped to 47.81 TP3T in September (second lowest). In the Champions League, only Arsenal saw this drop from one month to the next more dramatically (61.41 TP3T in October and 45.41 TP3T in November).

Chelsea travel to the Vitality Stadium to face Bournemouth on Saturday as they look to return from International Day with three points.

Enzo Maresca's side have four points from their opening three games of the season, following a 6-2 thrashing of Wolves and then a somewhat disappointing 1-1 draw at home to Crystal Palace.

Meanwhile, Bournemouth scored a rather brilliant comeback victory in their last game against Everton, scoring in the 87th, 92nd and 96th minutes to beat Goodison Park 3-2, shocking them from two goals down.

It was the most recent team to win a Premier League game after going down by two or more goals, while it was also the third time since Bournemouth returned to the game in 2022 that they have won after going down by two or more goals, more than any other team at the time.

That means they are looking to make it four straight defeats before Saturday to start the Premier League for the first time, although they will meet Chelsea, who have won three in a row, away from home, last time between February and April 2022 (four straight wins).

Despite their recent strong away record, Chelsea have conceded at least once in each of their last 17 Premier League away games, giving away 36 goals in that time. Only once have they failed to keep a clean sheet away from home in the Champions League, playing 24 matches between January 1993 and February 1994.

After a brilliant first season at Stamford Bridge, Cole Palmer has started the season in equally impressive fashion, and he will be hoping to continue that form after pulling out of the England national team with a knock on Saturday.

In addition to having the most assists (4), no player has created more big chances in the Premier League this season than Palmer (4).

Palmer averaged a goal (23) or an assist (15) every 76 minutes at Chelsea, the second-most among players who have played at least 1,000 minutes for a given club (behind Erlin Harland, who scored a goal every 67 minutes at Manchester City).

Bournemouth have their own firepower, but in Antoine Semenyo. Despite only having one goal to his name, the former Bristol City player has had more shots on target than any other Premier League player this season, with 17.

In injury news, Chelsea will remain without Reece James and Marlo Gusto, but Romeo Lavia could return.

For Bournemouth, Philip Billing could be fit after missing the last three games. However, Enes Unal and Tyler Adams are both out through injury.

Bournemouth vs Chelsea Head to Head

Bournemouth are winless in five Premier League meetings with Chelsea (two draws and three defeats), after winning three of their previous four matches against the Blues (one loss).

Chelsea have lost just one of their seven Premier League away games against Bournemouth (four wins and two draws), and have lost four of their games against the Cherries, three of which have come at Stamford Bridge.

The last time the two sides met was on the final Premier League matchday of last season, with Chelsea winning 2-1 at home thanks to goals from Moises Caicedo and Raheem Sterling in Mauricio Pochettino's final game in charge at Stamford Bridge.

Bournemouth vs Chelsea Predictions

Chelsea have been impressive on the road of late, as they have 45.21 TP3T in 10,000 pre-match simulations from the Opta supercomputer for another away win.

With home advantage, Bournemouth may also fancy their chances of taking away three points, as they top the simulation at 30.0%. A draw would see Bournemouth's unbeaten start to the season continue with an incidence of 24.8%.

Looking ahead to the remainder of the season, the Opta supercomputer believes Chelsea have a real chance of securing a Champions League spot, with a fifth place finish most likely in a simulation of 22.5%. Meanwhile, Bournemouth are expected to end the season safely in 13th place, having been relegated in a simulation of just 3.6%.

Bournemouth vs Chelsea predicted lineups

Bournemouth, UK: Mark Travers, Milos Colkez, Marcos Senesi, Ilya Zabani, Julian Araujo, Lewis Cook, Ryan Christie, Marcus Tavernier, Justin Kluivert, Antoine Semenyo, Evanilson

Chelsea: Robert Sanchez, Mark Cucurelia, Levi Colwell, Wesley Fofana, Axel DiSassi, Enzo Fernandez, Moises Caicedo, Pedro Neto, Cole Palmer, Nonie Madueke, Nicholas Jackson.