Southampton vs Manchester United Predictions

Southampton vs Manchester United stats: key insights

• Manchester United have lost their last two games, but Opta Supercomputer makes them favorites with a win probability of 52.21 TP3T.
• If Southampton are beaten, they will become the fifth team to lose as many as 400 Premier League games.
• United are unbeaten in their last 12 Premier League away games since August 2003, when they lost 0-1 to Southampton.

A sorry 0-3 loss at home to Liverpool sent United into International Day with a whimper and a second consecutive Premier League defeat.

For the second time under Eric Ten Hagar, United have lost two of their first three league games in a season (also 2022-23), as many as they had in their previous 29 seasons (2018-19 and 2020-21) combined. The last time they lost three of their first four games was in the 1986-87 season.

But a game against one of only two winless teams in the Premier League provides a great opportunity for United to get back on track in Saturday's early kickoff.

Southampton lost 1-3 away to Brentford last time out. They have now lost 399 of their 927 Premier League matches and are on the verge of becoming the fifth team to lose as many as 400 Premier League matches and the team with the fewest fixtures (West Ham United 976, Aston Villa 1,072, Newcastle 1,090, Everton 1,128).

The Saints are hoping to avoid becoming the first team to lose their first four games in three different Premier League seasons, having previously lost in the 1998-99 and 2012-13 seasons (their last as a promoted team).

However, Russell Martin's side may consider themselves unfortunate not to have gained any points in the table as they have performed well below their 3.5 expected goals (xG). They have struggled to convert an average of 68.1% of possession (the second-highest total in the league behind Tottenham Hotspur's 69.1%) intopracticeGoal.

In fact, their field goal conversion rate of just 2.41 TP3T is the lowest in the class.

Meanwhile, United have scored about three fewer goals than they were expected to score so far this season (two goals out of an expected 5.2), which is the biggest discrepancy in the FA Cup this season.

Mistakes have been a huge problem for both teams. Southampton (four times) and Manchester United (three times) have made the most errors that have led to goals in the Premier League this season. All three goals conceded by the Red Devils in their loss to Liverpool were scored from errors, the first time they have ever conceded that many goals in a single Premier League game (since the 2007-08 season).

New Southampton goalkeeper Ramsdale will make his home debut at St Mary's after signing from Arsenal on transfer deadline day. Since keeping a clean sheet in his first Premier League game against Manchester United at Bournemouth in November 2019, the England international has conceded a goal in each of his last eight games against United. His 19 goals conceded in those games are tied for the most he has conceded against any opponent in the competition (19 against Liverpool).

Southampton vs Man Utd Head-to-Head

United are unbeaten in their last 12 Premier League away games against Southampton (W7 D5) since a 1-0 loss in August 2003, so while they may be in poor form, Ten Hagar has reason to be confident.

Indeed, Southampton have not won in their last 14 Premier League meetings (D8 L6) with Manchester United since January 2016 when they won 1-0 away from home.

Manchester United have beaten Southampton in 10 different Premier League matches - only Liverpool have more come-from-behind victories against a single opponent than Liverpool in the history of the Premier League (11 against Newcastle United).

The Red Devils have also lost just one of their last 30 Premier League games against promoted teams (W22 D7), and since losing 4-1 away to Watford in November 2021, they have won 15 of their last 17 games.

Southampton vs Manchester United Predictions

Opta's supercomputer has run simulations in which United came out on top at 52.2%.

Southampton are priced at 23.6%, while a draw is possible at 24.2%.

Southampton vs Manchester United Predicted Lineups

Southampton: Aaron Ramsdale, Jack Stephens, Jan Bednarek, Tyler Harwood-Bellis, Kyle Walker-Peters, Joe Aribo, Flynn Downs, Will Smallbone, Yukari Sugawara, Ben Bretton-Diaz, Adam Armstrong

Manchester United Football Club: Andre Onana, Diogo Dalot, Lisandro Martinez, Mathis de Ligt, Noussel Mazraoui, Kobi Menu, Casemiro, Marcus Rashford, Bruno Fernandez, Alejandro Garnacho, Joshua Zilkzer