League One 2024-25 Season Predictions : Opta Predictions

EFL season predictions: quick hits

Automatic promotional favorites:Bolton Wanderers and Birmingham City
Top Six Dark Horses:Rotherham United and Wigan Athletic
Relegation favorites:Burton Albion, Shrewsbury, Mansfield and Crawley

We probably say this every year, but the League One squad looks particularly strong this season.

The 2024-25 season in England's third tier will feature eight former Premier League teams, including Birmingham City and Huddersfield Town, who were relegated from the Championship last season.

Bolton Wanderers are still around after losing to Oxford United in the play-off final in May, while Peterborough United and Barnsley will also be looking to get going again after their play-off heartache.

Hollywood title favorites Wrexham join the ranks after a second successive promotion last season, with Stockport County, Mansfield Town and Crawley Town also joining from League Two.

It promises to be another rollercoaster ride in League One, so we've asked the Opta supercomputer to make a prediction ahead of Saturday's first-round match.

It is important to understand that these predictions are based on what the Opta supercomputer currently knows. Essentially, if every game in League One was played today, then this is how the league would end. Of course, these predictions will change thousands of times throughout the season, depending on the real-world data that feeds into the season simulations.

Nonetheless, these preseason projections give us a first look at what certain teams might realistically achieve in the 2024-25 season. You'll see a variety of 1-24 predictions from publications this summer, and you've probably made your own; think of this as one of the more unique predictions that has no opinion, but is instead data-driven...

Who will be promoted from League One?

There are a number of giants in League One who are looking to get promoted this season, but as always, only two clubs are automatically promoted.

Despite the presence of Birmingham and Huddersfield, the supercomputers are backing Bolton to lead from the front as things stand. Ian Evatt's side may be licking their wounds from the game against Oxford at Wembley, but this time they will be keen to right that wrong.

Bolton haven't been as active in the transfer market as some of their rivals, but former Rangers player Scott Arfield has gained experience in midfield, while Clyde Lowes from Crawley is an interesting addition to the attack.

Evatt's males ranked in the top two in nearly half of the supercomputer's 10,000 simulations (48.11 TP3T), topping the list with 29.71 TP3T.

Birmingham have been far more involved in the transfer sphere and have reportedly signed four players for seven-figure fees. These include center-backs Christoph Kraler from Darmstadt and William Willenson from Go Ahead Eagles, while prolific striker Alfie May has also joined from Charlton Athletic.

Former Tottenham assistant coach Chris Davies is in charge at St Andrews this season and the supercomputer gives the team co-owned by NFL legend Tom Brady a 27.3% chance of automatic outright promotion.

Former Barnsley and Swansea City boss Michael Duff is now the manager of Huddersfield, who are also hoping they can spend a season in the EFL at this level. The Yorkshire side have a 22.5% chance of automatic promotion.

With Peterborough (20.6%), Lincoln (19.5%) and Blackpool (18.2%) not far behind, the supercomputer believes the battle for the top two spots could be very close this season.

Those looking to challenge include Rotherham United (10.0%), Wigan Athletic (9.0%), Wycombe Wanderers (8.0%), Barnsley (5.6%) and Reading (5.4%).

For anyone expecting another consecutive upgrade from Wrexham, the Opta supercomputer isn't so sure. In fact, the Welsh team owned by Ryan Reynolds and Rob McElhenney accounted for just 0.02% out of 10,000 simulations, placing them in the top two.

In terms of which teams will be in the play-in round, it's no surprise that four of the top six teams mentioned are considered the most likely to occupy those spots at the end of the season.

Birmingham (40.7%), Huddersfield (39.1%), Blackpool (37.5%), Peterborough (37.4%) and Lincoln (37.1%) are virtually indistinguishable from each other, while Bolton's chances of missing out on the top two, if they miss out, are 34.3%.

However, there will be plenty of teams looking to challenge those percentages and Rotherham are one of them, having been relegated last season. Steve Evans' side went into the play-offs with a season simulation of 29.1%, closely ahead of Wigan (27.7%) and Wycombe (26.8%).

Barnsley have a chance to rectify last season's semi-final defeat in the 22.7% simulation, while Reading are the only team with more than a one-in-five chance of making the play-off places (22.0%).

Other outside shouts include Stevenage (12.8%), Leyton Orient (10.2%), Exeter City (8.1%), Charlton (7.2%) and Northampton Town (3.3%). No other team has more than an 1% chance of making the play-offs.

Who will be relegated from League One?

We've reported on Wrexham's promotion hopes, but can they go straight back into League Two?The Opta supercomputer says no, but only just.

In their simulation, only four teams were relegated more frequently, with the Red Dragons dropping a 37.01 TP3T chance.

Stockport, the other promoted team, are expected to finish above Wrexham, as they did last season. The League Two champions most commonly finish 17th in the simulation game, and Dave Challinor's side are only 30.9% behind.

Other promotion teams Mansfield and Crawley may not have been so lucky, although they both survived more than half of the 10,000 simulations. Nigel Clough's Mansfield received automatic promotion last season, but were relegated straight away in the supercomputer's 47.8% simulation.

Despite many being favorites for relegation from League Two last season, Scott Lindsay's Crawley actually progressed via the play-offs, beating MK Dons in the semi-finals and then Crewe Alexandra in the final at Wembley. However, the Red Devils lost some of their stars from last season this summer, so it's anyone's guess how they will fare in their first League One season since 2014-15. Crawley fell back in the simulated game at 45.5%.

However, two teams are more likely to be relegated than Mansfield or Crawley.

Burton Albion have new owners, with long-time chairman Ben Robinson selling a majority stake to Sweden-based Scandinavian Football Group, who have signed a number of players this summer. While one Robinson is absent, another has taken up his post as former AFC Wimbledon manager Mark Robinson was appointed head coach in the summer. Despite the renewed optimism, the supercomputer sees this as a tough campaign for Burton, suffering relegation at 63.3% in the simulation.

Both Burton and Shrewsbury Town could pay the price for last season's excellent performances, finishing 20th and 19th respectively in League One. Paul Hurst's Shrews failed to repeat the trick in the 59.5-2024 Sims.

Cambridge United finished just ahead of Shrewsbury on goal difference last season, but the supercomputer puts the probability of them being relegated at just 36.3%, lower than Bristol Rovers (36.6%), despite them finishing nine points above both in the 2023-24 season.

Northampton was sucked into the bottom four in the 16.0% simulation, with no other team dropping more than 6.7%.

Charlton (6.7%), Exeter (5.8%), Leyton Orient (5.4%), Stevenage (3.6%), Reading (1.4%) and Barnsley (1.3%) are the only other teams to be relegated in a simulation over 1%.

Opta-Simulation of the English League

After simulating the 2024-25 League One season 10,000 times, we were able to rank the teams by averaging each club's total points in these simulations. Below are the results obtained by the Opta supercomputer from these simulations:

First place:Bolton Wanderers - Average score
81.6 Second place:Birmingham City - 77.4
Third place:Huddersfield (town in England) - 76.0
Fourth place:United Petersburg - 75.2
Fifth place:Lincoln City - 75.1
Sixth place:Blackpool - 74.9
Seventh place:Rotherham United - 71.3
Eighth place:Wigan Athletic - 70.5
Ninth place:Wycombe Wanderers - 70.4
Tenth place: Barnsley - 68.8 para.
11: Reading (name) - 68.6
Twelfth place: Stefanic (name) - 64.7
13th place: Leyton Oriental - 63.3
14th place: Exeter City - 62.2
15th place: Charlton Athletic (UKBA) - 61.6
16th place: Northampton - 57.4 para.
17: Stockport County - 53.3
18th place: Bristol Rovers - 52.0
19th place: Cambridge Union - 52.0
20th place:Wrexham - 51.8
21st place:Crawley Township - 50.2
22nd place:Mansfield Township - 49.5
23rd place:Shrewsbury town - 47.3
24th place:Burton Albion - 46.4

How does the Opta supercomputer model work?

- Opta's league prediction model estimates the likelihood of a team finishing in each position in the competition. As a result, we can see how successful a team's season is likely to be, whether it's their chances of relegation or winning the title.

- The model estimates the probability of each game's outcome (win, draw or loss) by using betting market odds and Opta's power rankings. The odds and rankings are based on historical and recent team performance.

- The model uses these match result probabilities to take into account the strength of the opposition and simulates the remaining fixtures in the competition thousands of times. By analyzing the results of each simulation, the model can see how often a team finishes at the bottom of each league to make our final prediction.