West Ham United vs Newcastle Prediction: can the Magpies maintain their excellent record at the London Stadium?

West Ham United vs Newcastle: Key Stats

• Opta supercomputerRated Newcastle as favorites to win the title, they have a 51.51 TP3T chance of winning, while West Ham United have a 25.31 TP3T chance of winning.
• Eddie Howe has only won more Premier League games against Aston Villa as a manager than he did against West Ham United.
• No team in the Premier League has conceded more goals than West Ham United (20) this season.

West Ham United face the prospect of making unwanted club history if they fail to rectify their dismal home record against Newcastle United in the Premier League on Sunday.

The Hammers have won just one of their eight Premier League home games against Newcastle at the London Stadium (L5 D2) and have failed to win their last six home meetings.

West Ham United have made their worst start to a Premier League season in nine games (four points), with the previous worst start occurring in the 2006-07 season (five points). The Iron have never before lost as many as eight of their first 10 games of a league season.

A poor defensive record has been at the heart of West Ham United's troubles, as they have conceded the most goals in the top flight this season (20). In addition, they have faced the second highest number of shots (133) and total goals (15.2). This is the earliest they have scored 68 goals in the league since the 20-1967 season (21 goals in 8 games).

The decision to replace Graham Potter with Nuno Espirito Santo has not led to better fortunes so far, with West Ham United drawing the Portuguese coach's first game before losing their next three. It was Nuno's sixth consecutive defeat as a Premier League manager (including across clubs), but he had never before suffered four consecutive defeats.

West Ham United may find a sliver of comfort in Newcastle's recent away record. Eddie Howe's side are winless in their last seven league games away from St James' Park (D4 L3), failing to score in four of them. The Magpies last went longer without an away win from August to December 2021 (nine games).

Howe has won seven Premier League games against the Hammers (D6 L4) and has only won more against Aston Villa (8). He has also won three consecutive games over Nuno, with those games producing 16 goals (5.3 average).

Newcastle, who beat Tottenham Hotspur 2-0 on Wednesday to reach the quarter-finals of the EFL Cup, have scored seven of their last 13 Premier League goals, seven in the last 15 minutes of a game and only one of their previous 34 goals in the 76th minute or later. Bruno Guimarães scored the winning goal in the 90th minute against Fulham in the ninth round, their latest winning goal since March 2024, and Harvey Barnes scored against the Hammers.

Guimarães now has three Premier League goals in eight games for Newcastle in the 2025-26 season, just two fewer than he scored in 38 games (five) last season. The midfield ace has won 21 of the 19 games he has scored in (90.51 TP3T), which is the sixth-highest percentage of goals scored in 20-plus games in Premier League history.

Callum Wilson could face his former employers in what would mark the first time he has faced one of his former owners in the Premier League. He has played 75 games for Newcastle and West Ham United since the 2022-23 season but has never faced Bournemouth. The only player in Premier League history to have played for three or more clubs and made more appearances than Wilson (245) without facing his former team is Neil Sullivan (247).

Newcastle are still without Tino Livramento and Joan Vezza for the trip to the capital, but Lewis Hall should be back in contention. The Hammers will be without Konstantinos Mavropanos and George Ursey, while it remains to be seen whether Nicolas Fellkrug is fit to return from a hamstring problem.

West Ham United vs Newcastle Head-to-Head

Newcastle have an excellent record at the London Stadium, having lost just one of their previous eight Premier League games (five wins and two losses).

In fact, the Magpies are unbeaten in their last six visits to West Ham United (W4 D2).

In comparison, the Hammers have won just two of their last 12 Premier League games against Newcastle (D4 L6).

Both victories came away from St. James' Park (August 2021, November 2024).

West Ham United vs Newcastle Predictions

Newcastle are seen as clear favorites to win Sunday's showdown, with the Opta supercomputer offering the visitors a 10,000% probability of victory in 51.5 simulations conducted.

Meanwhile, West Ham United are rated as having a 25.31 TP3T chance of winning and a 23.21 TP3T chance of drawing.