Manchester City vs Everton predictions: can the Toffees hang on to Ellyn Harland?

Manchester City vs Everton: Key Stats

• Man City's 65.91 TP3T pre-match win percentage over Everton Opta's Simulation SupercomputerThe
• Manchester City striker Harland has scored 10 consecutive goals Making appearances for club and country.
• Everton are winless in their last 14 away league games City (D6 L8).

MANCHESTER Manchester City are looking to continue from where they last left off after the game on International Match Day, when they host Everton on Saturday.

Pep Guardiola's men enter national team suspension Football League wins over Burnley and Brentford in quick succession lifted them to fifth place in the table.

In fact, Manchester City have a higher scoring average and have competed more than any other team this year (2.04 - 53 out of 26). They are also the league's top scorer in 2025 (55 goals) and have tied for the most wins (16, tied with Liverpool).

At the heart of these strong attacking performances is once again Erling Harland who has scored nine goals in seven Premier League appearances for Manchester City this season. Saturday's goal would make it the third instance of a player reaching 10+ in a team's first goal in eight games of a season.

Harland has been responsible for the first two games (Game 6 of the 2022-23 season, Game 5 of the 2024-25 season), and the City talisman is already three games ahead of in-form Antoine Semenio in the boots of the Premier League's prime early contenders.

Harland's goal-scoring form hasn't changed, but Guardiola's tactics might have. City averaged 57.61 TP3T in possession and shot 541-2025 season averaging 26 passes per game. These are the lowest levels Guardiola teams have been at in any season for the Spaniard as Barcelona, Bayern Munich and Citizens.

The change in setup could be forced by the absence of in and out Rodri, who limped off again in the match against Brentford. The Spanish midfielder is expected to be out until the end of the month having trouble with a thigh problem.

City has lost 48 of 14 league games without Rhodes Since the start of the 2021-22 season, has scored 1.8 points per game. This is in stark contrast to when he was featured, suffering just eight losses in 111 games and averaging 2.4 points per game.

Despite the apparent change in plans, City have won seven of their last eight Premier League home games, with another 0-2 loss against Tottenham Hotspur in August. Guardiola's men have won their last two at the Etihad Stadium by a goal difference of 3+, last doing so May 2024 three times in a row.

Despite Everton and David Moyes' poor record against Manchester City, which we'll delve into shortly, the Toffees have won six of their last 10 league games (D2 L2). That's the number they managed in their previous 27 games (D13 L8).

Everton have also won four of their last seven away league games (L3), after winning only three of their previous 26 matches before that (D10 L13).

However, Moyes has lost his last eight Premier League matches away to Manchester City, with Manchester United (1), Sunderland (1) and West Ham United (6). He last avoided defeat in December 2012 in his first season at Everton with the Etihad.

Only against Liverpool (10 in a row) has Moyes ever experienced a longer losing run away from home against either side, and his allegedly better record away from home against teams far from pleasing.

In fact, Everton has never won an away game in the Premier League Moyes against a team that ended last season Top three in the division (P36, D12, L24). The Scotsman won only one of the 58 matches with all his clubs in such matches (D14 L43), beating Arsenal December 2023 with West Ham United 2-0.

Everton boss at least hopes his woes will be boosted by Jarrad Branthwaite and Merlin return Rowe injured. Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall available again after service Suspended for one game, but Michael Keane is suffering from a doubtful rib injury against Crystal Palace, while loanee Jack Grealish will be injured Unable to play against his parent club.

Guardiola can also welcome back three returning players, replacing Omar Mamushi, Rayan Ait Nouri and Abdelkodir Kusanov who are about to make a comeback from their respective teams Injuries. Rodri is the only confirmed absentee for Saturday.

Man City vs Everton Head-to-Head

Everton have not won any of their last 14 Premier League away league games against Manchester City (D6 L8) since a 2-1 win in December 2010, during David Moyes' first spell in charge.

This makes a worrying reading only in the case of Manchester United (20), Liverpool (20), Arsenal (24) and Chelsea (30) who have ever had a winless away from home in the competition for a longer period of time.

Manchester City are unbeaten in their last 16 Premier League matches at Everton (13-3) overall since a 4-0 loss at Goodison Park January 2017

Fulham (20), West Bromwich Albion (19) and West Ham United (19) are the only teams with longer unbeaten streaks currently held by Manchester City.

Manchester City vs Everton Predictions

The Opta supercomputer was hard to see apart from the home win, where City took all three points with a 65.9% hitting percentage in 10,000 pre-match simulations.

Everton only have a 15.6% chance of winning, while a draw in a data-driven simulation game is rated at 18.5%.