Manchester United vs Chelsea Predictions

Manchester United vs Chelsea by the numbers: key insights

• Opta supercomputerA close encounter is predicted, with a high likelihood of a draw.
• Manchester United v Chelsea is the most drawn game in Premier League history.
• The Blues won 4-3 in a thrilling game at Stamford Bridge in April.

Erik ten Hag seems long doomed at Manchester United. Unsurprisingly, after winning the FA Cup last season, the suspension is over.

Manchester United sacked the Dutchman on Monday, leaving his compatriot Ruud van Nistelrooy in temporary charge. The former striker will take charge of his second game against Chelsea this weekend.

However, the Red Devils have moved quickly to appoint a permanent successor, with Sporting Portugal's Ruben Amorim set to join the club on November 11th.

Until then, Van Nistelrooy - who oversaw Wednesday's 5-2 win over Leicester City in the EFL Cup - will be in charge, following Chelsea's visit for the UEFA Cup clash against PAOK and Premier League fixture at Leicester City.

While the midweek goal fest will undoubtedly improve United's mood somewhat, their previous home games against some other Premier League teams this season were unbearable. Those games resulted in the Red Devils losing 3-0 to Liverpool and Tottenham Hotspur.

But will things be different now that Ten Hagar is gone?

Ten Hagar lost 32% (27/85) in his Premier League games in charge of Manchester United, tied for the most with David Moyes (11/34).

Seven of his 27 defeats - including last season's 4-3 against Chelsea - have come from a 90th-minute winning goal, the highest percentage of any manager in Premier League history to lose 20+ games (26%). According to some, this is a worrying indictment of United's mentality under Ten Hagar.

While Amorim is waiting in the wings, this is another chance for Van Nistelrooy to ease the tension at Old Trafford. United are currently 14th and could be even lower before kick-off, meaning their European title aspirations could be hanging by a thread if they drop any more points.

United have just 11 Premier League points this season (W3 D2 L4), their second fewest after nine games (10 points in 2019-20). Their only four losses in their first nine Premier League games came in Ten Hagar's final two seasons in charge.

United scoring five goals in midweek was a timely boost for their fans as missed chances have been a big problem for the Red Devils this season.

Only Southampton and Crystal Palace (6 each) have scored fewer Premier League goals than Manchester United (8) in 2024-25.

In fact, United have performed 6.8 below their expected goals (14.8), which is the worst margin of any team in the 2024-25 season. Furthermore, only Everton (-26) have performed worse than United (-17.9 - 123 goals, 140.9 expected goals) since the 2022-23 season.

However, with Enzo Maresca at the helm, goals will certainly not be a problem for Chelsea.

The Blues have scored 19 goals in the league this season, a figure second only to league leaders Manchester City.

Maresca left with younger players this season, so the fearless approach predominantly present in the league may not be surprising.

Chelsea have the youngest average starting lineup in the Premier League this season (23 years and 206 days). In last weekend's 2-1 win over Newcastle, they became only the second team in Premier League history not to have 25+ non-goalkeeper players in their starting lineup, behind Aston Villa in 2013, who have not featured in such a roster in two games.

Cole Palmer has been a driving force for the Blues. He was directly involved in 33 Premier League goals (21 goals, 12 assists) for Chelsea in 2024; only two players have scored and assisted more in a year for the Blues - Hasselbaink in 2001 (25 goals, 11 assists) and Didier Drogba in 2010 (22 goals, 13 assists).

Palmer scored in both of Chelsea's Premier League games against Manchester United last season, including a hat-trick in a 4-3 win at Stamford Bridge. Chelsea players who have scored in three consecutive Premier League games against the Red Devils are Hasselbaink (2000-2001) and Juan Mata (2012-2013).

Manchester United vs Chelsea Head-to-Head

United are unbeaten in their last 11 home games against Chelsea (W5 D6) and they are looking to make it three wins in a row against the Blues for the first time since January 1957 at Old Trafford.

The last time the two sides met was in April, with Chelsea coming back to win 4-3 at Stamford Bridge. The last time the Blues won back-to-back league games against the Red Devils was in March 2011 (three in a row).

Manchester United v Chelsea is the most drawn game in Premier League history, with 26 of the 64 previous meetings between the two sides.

Manchester United vs Chelsea Predictions

This supercomputer is trying to separate these two sides before what looks like a tight game.

United came out on top in the model 37.8% simulation, which gives them the edge, but only just.

Out of 10,000 data-driven simulation games, Chelsea had 37.31 TP3T of wins compared to 24.91 TP3T of draws.